基于水质模型的海湾填海岸线选择

在应用水动力学模型预测海湾余流分布的前提下，讨论了深圳湾北岩填海后污染物迁移规律的一些变化，并采用水质模型分析了海湾的水质变化。根据浓度场的迭加原理，计算了各种岩线方案下海湾可利用的环境容量。通过对不同环境要求的各种岩线方案之比较，给出了协调诸要求的相对较优岸线。     

防城湾的环境特征及其水体自净特点分析

根据(1983-1997)15 a间对防城湾6个航次的调查资料,分析探讨了该湾水体的自净能力。结果表明:该湾具有较强的水体自净能力,但与北海湾和钦洲湾的表现特点明显不同。物理自净能力虽以往复流影响为主,但其旋转方向是以逆时针方向为主,且湾内外流速出现大小不等现象,与该湾特殊的地形影响有关;较强的化学自净能力虽从富氧特征及明显偏低的COD值体现出来,但三态氮的形态转化没有达到较佳状态,与该湾多方位、多途径源源不断地向湾内直接排放富含有机物的生活污水及养殖废水有关;生物自净能力既体现在微生物对有机物较强的降解能力上,也体现在浮游植物对DO的贡献作用及其对营养盐的吸收能力上,具有富营养海湾的水体自净特点。     

Heavy Metals in the Eggs and Muscle of Horseshoe Crabs (Limulus Polyphemus) from Delaware Bay

Lead, mercury, cadmium, chromium and manganese concentrations were measured in the eggs of horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus) from 1993, 1994 and 1995; and from chelicera muscle in 1995 from Delaware Bay. Metal concentrations in the eggs represent levels derived from females. In eggs, mercury levels were below 100 ppb or were non-dectable; cadmium levels were generally low in 1993 and 1995 but were relatively higher in 1994; lead levels in eggs decreased from 558 ppb in 1993 to 87 ppm in 1995; selenium increased from 1993 to 1995; chromium decreased from 1993 to 1995; and manganese generally decreased. Leg muscles had significantly lower levels of all metals than eggs, except for mercury.     

电厂增温对中小型浮游动物群落结构的影响

为探明电厂增温可能导致邻近海域浮游动物的小型化问题,对小网目（网目77μm）采集的象山港国华电厂排水口附近样品数据进行了分析.结果表明：本次调查共鉴定出75种浮游动物（包括浮游幼体、卵与仔鱼）,优势种18种,年平均丰度为27690.0ind/m³.该海域主要由中小型桡足类和浮游幼体组成,且个体体长以<1000μm中小型浮游动物占绝对优势.其中,体长<500μm小型浮游动物丰度在各月份和各断面均最高,平均丰度占总丰度比例>58.2%;体长500~1000μm占比>34.8%;而体长>1000μm所占比例仅为7%.经群落相似性分析（ANOSIM）,群落结构具显著的季节性差异（P<0.05）,但不同断面的空间结构无显著差异.群落相似性百分比（SIMPER）分析显示,导致群落结构时空差异的主要判别种有大同长腹剑水蚤（Oithona similis）、异体住囊虫（Oikopleura dioica）和砂壳虫（Difflugia sp.）等.电厂增温导致大型浮游动物（>2000μm）全部远离排水口0.2km断面（D02断面）,主要幼体类群的桡足类无节幼体和桡足幼体则在增温海域分布较均匀,几乎不受影响.而一些高丰度小型浮游动物,如砂壳虫、短角长腹剑水蚤（Oithona brevicornis）、伪长腹剑水蚤（Oithona fallax）大量聚集于排水口,使D02断面的浮游动物丰度最高,达35704.1ind/m³.多样性分析显示,海域增温与种类数（S）间的线性关系不显著（P>0.05）,而与Shannon指数（H'）、Pielou均匀度（J'）、Simpson指数（D'）间均存在显著的线性关系（P<0.01）.据回归方程斜率计算,每增温1℃会导致浮游动物H'、J'、D'和S分别降低5.4%、5.0%、3.8%和2.9%.     

Toward Explaining Nitrogen and Phosphorus Trends in Chesapeake Bay Tributaries, 1992–2012

Understanding trends in stream chemistry is critical to watershed management, and often complicated by multiple contaminant sources and landscape conditions changing over varying time scales. We adapted spatially referenced regression (SPARROW) to infer causes of recent nutrient trends in Chesapeake Bay tributaries by relating observed fluxes during 1992, 2002, and 2012 to contemporary inputs and watershed conditions. The annual flow‐normalized nitrogen flux to the bay from its watershed declined by 14% to 127,000 Mg (metric tons) between 1992 and 2012, due primarily (more than 80% of the decline) to reduced point sources. The remainder of the decline was due to reduced atmospheric deposition (13%) and urban nonpoint sources. Agricultural inputs, which contribute most nitrogen to the bay, changed little, although trends in the average nitrogen yield (flux per unit area) from cropland and pasture to streams in some settings suggest possible effects of evolving nutrient applications or other land management practices. Point sources of phosphorus to local streams declined by half between 1992 and 2012, while nonpoint inputs were relatively unchanged. Annual phosphorus delivery to the bay increased by 9% to 9,570 Mg between 1992 and 2012, however, due mainly to reduced retention in the Susquehanna River at Conowingo Reservoir.     

Managing Birds and Controlling Aircraft in the Kennedy Airport–Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge Complex: The Need for Hard Data and Soft Opinions

During the 1980s, the exponential growth of laughing gull (Larus atricilla) colonies, from 15 to about 7600 nests in 1990, in the Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge and a correlated increase in the bird-strike rate at nearby John F. Kennedy International Airport (New York City) led to a controversy between wildlife and airport managers over the elimination of the colonies. In this paper, we review data to evaluate if: (1) the colonies have increased the level of risk to the flying public; (2) on-colony population control would reduce the presence of gulls, and subsequently bird strikes, at the airport; and (3) all on-airport management alternatives have been adequately implemented. Since 1979, most (2987, 87%) of the 3444 bird strikes (number of aircraft struck) were actually bird carcasses found near runways (cause of death unknown but assumed to be bird strikes by definition). Of the 457 pilot-reported strikes (mean = 23 ± 6 aircraft/yr, N= 20 years), 78 (17%) involved laughing gulls. Since a gull-shooting program was initiated on airport property in 1991, over 50,000 adult laughing gulls have been killed and the number of reported bird strikes involving laughing gulls has declined from 6.9 ± 2.9 (1983–1990) to 2.6 ± 1.3 (1991–1998) aircraft/yr; nongull reported bird strikes, however, have more than doubled (6.4 ± 2.6, 1983–1990; 14.9 ± 5.1, 1991–1998). We found no evidence to indicate that on-colony management would yield a reduction of bird strikes at Kennedy Airport. Dietary and mark–recapture studies suggest that 60%–90% of the laughing gulls collected on-airport were either failed breeders and/or nonbreeding birds. We argue that the Jamaica Bay laughing gull colonies, the only ones in New York State, should not be managed at least until all on-airport management alternatives have been properly implemented and demonstrated to be ineffective at reducing bird strikes, including habitat alterations and increasing the capability of the bird control unit to eliminate bird flocks on-airport using nonlethal bird dispersal techniques. Because the gull-shooting program may be resulting in a nonsustainable regional population of laughing gulls (>30% decline), we also recommend that attempts be made to initiate an experimental colony elsewhere on Long Island to determine if colony relocation is a feasible management option.     

Formation and Evolution of Ancient Lakes on South Coast Plain of Laizhou Bay

1INTRODUCTIONAncient lakes are lakes that once existed in history,butnow have died out.As a kind of land water and geomorphicconfiguration,the formation and evolution of ancientlakes were closely linked with the variance of geographicenvironment.The south coast plain of Laizhou Bay is aplain extending from the estuary of the Xiaoqing Riverin the west to the estuary of the Jiaolai River in the east.There were once some lakes on the plain in history,suchas Judian Lake,Qingshuibo Lake,an…     

Development of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Total Maximum Daily Load Allocation

Nutrient load allocations and subsequent reductions in total nitrogen and phosphorus have been applied in the Chesapeake watershed since 1992 to reduce hypoxia and to restore living resources. In 2010, sediment allocations were established to augment nutrient allocations supporting the submerged aquatic vegetation resource. From the initial introduction of nutrient allocations in 1992 to the present, the allocations have become more completely applied to all areas and loads in the watershed and have also become more rigorously assessed and tracked. The latest 2010 application of nutrient and sediment allocations were made as part of the Chesapeake Bay total maximum daily load and covered all six states of the Chesapeake watershed. A quantitative allocation process was developed that applied principles of equity and efficiency in the watershed, while achieving all tidal water quality standards through an assessment of equitable levels of effort in reducing nutrients and sediments. The level of effort was determined through application of two key watershed scenarios: one where no action was taken in nutrient control and one where maximum nutrient control efforts were applied. Once the level of effort was determined for different jurisdictions, the overall load reduction was set watershed‐wide to achieve dissolved oxygen water quality standards. Further adjustments were made to the allocation to achieve the James River chlorophyll‐a standard.     

Total Maximum Daily Load Criteria Assessment Using Monitoring and Modeling Data

Applications of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) criteria for complex estuarine systems like Chesapeake Bay have been limited by difficulties in estimating precisely how changes in input loads will impact ambient water quality. A method to deal with this limitation combines the strengths of the Chesapeake Bay's Water Quality Sediment Transport Model (WQSTM), which simulates load response, and the Chesapeake Bay Program's robust historical monitoring dataset. The method uses linear regression to apply simulated relative load responses to historical observations of water quality at a given location and time. Steps to optimize the application of regression analysis were to: (1) determine the best temporal and spatial scale for applying the WQSTM scenarios, (2) determine whether the WQSTM method remained valid with significant perturbation from calibration conditions, and (3) evaluate the need for log transformation of both dissolved oxygen (DO) and chlorophyll a (CHL) datasets. The final method used simple linear regression at the single month, single WQSTM grid cell scale to quantify changes in DO and CHL resulting from simulated load reduction scenarios. The resulting linear equations were applied to historical monitoring data to produce a set of “scenario‐modified” DO or CHL concentration estimates. The utility of the regression method was validated by its ability to estimate progressively increasing attainment in support of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay TMDL.     

双碳目标下电力系统转型对产业部门影响评估——以粤港澳大湾区为例

通过细化机组级燃煤发电财务状况建模,测算了提前退役、灵活性调整、限制和停止新增等情景下煤电搁浅资产风险,明确了不同情景下导致搁浅资产规模及时空分布情况.结果表明:存量煤电机组是引起搁浅资产的主体,控制新增煤电有助于降低搁浅资产风险,提前退役、灵活性调整情景下中国现存和新增煤电搁浅资产总规模分别为1.90万亿和3.98万亿元;不同转型情景导致煤电搁浅资产的年际分布差异明显,提前退役搁浅压力主要集中于2030~2040年间,灵活性调整情景下则集中于2021~2035年间;煤电搁浅资产空间分布极不均衡,山东、内蒙古、江苏等10个煤电大省搁浅资产规模占全国的67%和70%.因此,煤电低碳转型需审慎决策,重视提前退役造成的煤电资产搁浅,更要防范和控制灵活性调整导致的煤电资产减值,重点关注山东、内蒙古、新疆、江苏等重点省份,制定因地制宜的煤电转型策略,帮助电力相关企业及政府等进行减排政策选择.