北方农牧交错带干旱脆弱性时空格局演变

干旱脆弱性研究为北方农牧交错带人地系统的“整合”研究提供了新思路与分析框架。论文运用VSD脆弱性评估框架,将系统脆弱性分解为暴露度、敏感性、适应能力3个维度,以北方农牧交错带112个县域为研究单元,以2000、2008、2015年社会经济统计数据、气象数据、遥感影像数据为研究基础,运用模糊层次分析、空间热点探测分析和变异系数分析等方法,对各县域干旱脆弱性时空演变特征进行分析与总结。研究结论：1）研究区干旱脆弱性指数逐步降低,整体呈现东北地区低脆弱、西南地区高脆弱的空间格局。2）研究区暴露度指数先上升、后下降,且由东北向西南逐渐增高;敏感性指数先下降、后上升,呈现空间碎片化特征;适应能力指数逐步提高,呈现中部高度适应、东部中度适应、西部低度适应的格局。3）研究区干旱脆弱性差异度先增大、后减小,且呈现西、南部差异度大,东、北部差异度小的格局。4）研究区干旱脆弱性冷、热点个数增加明显,2000—2008年冷热点个数增加最明显;空间上,热点先由中部向西部蔓延,冷点由东部边界区向西部、南部扩展,形成了东部边界冷点集聚带和中、西部热点集聚区。     

Thresholds in Songbird Occurrence in Relation to Landscape Structure

Abstract:  Theory predicts the occurrence of threshold levels of habitat in landscapes, below which ecological processes change abruptly. Simulation models indicate that below critical thresholds, fragmentation of habitat influences patch occupancy by decreasing colonization rates and increasing rates of local extinction. Uncovering such putative relationships is important for understanding the demography of species and in developing sound conservation strategies. Using segmented logistic regression, we tested for thresholds in occurrence of 15 bird species as a function of the amount of suitable habitat at multiple scales (150–2000-m radii). Suitable habitat was defined quantitatively based on previously derived, spatially explicit distribution models for each species. The occurrence of 10 out of 15 species was influenced by the amount of habitat at a landscape scale (≥500-m radius). Of these species all but one were best predicted by threshold models. Six out of nine species exhibited asymptotic thresholds; the effects of habitat loss intensified at low amounts of habitat in a landscape. Landscape thresholds ranged from 8.6% habitat to 28.7% (     = 18.5 ± 2.6%[95% CI]). For two species landscape thresholds coincided with sensitivity to fragmentation; both species were more likely to occur in large patches, but only when the amount of habitat in a landscape was low. This supports the fragmentation threshold hypothesis. Nevertheless, the occurrence of most species appeared to be unaffected by fragmentation, regardless of the amount of habitat present at landscape extents. The thresholds we identified may be useful to managers in establishing conservation targets. Our results indicate that findings of landscape-scale studies conducted in regions with relatively high proportions of habitat and low fragmentation may not be applicable in regions with low habitat proportions and high fragmentation.     

The importance of spatial autocorrelation,extent and resolution in predicting forest bird occurrence

Concerns about declines in forest biodiversity underscore the need for accurate estimates of the distribution and abundance of organisms at large scales and at resolutions that are fine enough to be appropriate for management. This paper addresses three major objectives: (i) to determine whether the resolution of typical air photo-derived forest inventory is sufficient for the accurate prediction of site occupancy by forest birds. We compared prediction success of habitat models using air photo variables to models with variables derived from finer resolution, ground-sampled vegetation plots. (ii) To test whether incorporating spatial autocorrelation into habitat models via autologistic regression increases prediction success. (iii) To determine whether landscape structure is an important factor in predicting bird distribution in forest-dominated landscapes. Models were tested locally (Greater Fundy Ecosystem [GFE]) using cross-validation, and regionally using an independent data set from an area located ca. 250 km to the northwest (Riley Brook [RB]). We found significant positive spatial autocorrelation in the residuals of at least one habitat model for 76% (16/21) of species examined. In these cases, the logistic regression assumption of spatially independent errors was violated. Logistic models that ignored spatial autocorrelation tended to overestimate habitat effects. Though overall prediction success was higher for autologistic models than logistic models in the GFE, the difference was only significantly improved for one species. Further, the inclusion of spatial covariates did little to improve model performance in the geographically discrete study area. For 62% (13/21) of species examined, landscape variables were significant predictors of forest bird occurrence even after statistically controlling for stand-level variability. However, broad spatial extents explained less variation than local factors. In the GFE, 76% (16/21) of air photo and 81% (17/21) of ground plot models were accurate enough to be of practical utility (AUC > 0.7). When applied to RB, both model types performed effectively for 55% (11/20) of the species examined. We did not detect an overall difference in prediction success between air photo and ground plot models in either study area. We conclude that air photo data are as effective as fine resolution vegetation data for predicting site occupancy for the majority of species in this study. These models will be of use to forest managers who are interested in mapping species distributions under various timber harvest scenarios, and to protected areas planners attempting to optimize reserve function.     

Temporal changes in demand for and supply of nests in red bishops (Euplectes orix): dynamics of a biological market

The red bishop (Euplectes orix) is a highly polygynous and colonial weaverbird. Males construct several nests within their territories to which they try to attract females, and females are solely responsible for incubation and raising offspring. In this paper, we describe the characteristics of the red bishop’s mating system as a biological market and investigate the role of nests built by males as a traded commodity in a mating market. As timing of breeding in red bishops in arid and semi-arid zones depends on rainfall patterns which are often unpredictable, there are temporal changes in demand for and supply of nests within a breeding season, with breeding activities of males and females being highly synchronised. We found that males increased their nest-building speed with increased female breeding activity independently of rainfall, indicating that supply follows demand in this mating market. The supply of nests was always larger than the demand for nests. Construction costs for nests increased with demand for nests as indicated by shorter nest-building duration and shorter building delays between two consecutively built nests at times of high breeding activity. Males as a trading class are chosen according to the age of their nests offered, with young nests having a higher probability of being accepted by females. Furthermore, female choosiness with regard to nest age decreased when their own market value decreased, as predicted by biological market theory. The temporal changes of breeding activity together with the female preference for young and fresh nests require that males quickly adjust nest-building activity to varying female demand for new nests. However, males with a better adjustment of building speed to female breeding activity did not gain higher mating success.     

中国臭氧污染的空间分布和健康效应

基于2017年全国1365个监测站点的实时监测数据，运用空间数据统计模型揭示近地面臭氧（O₃）污染的时空分布格局，并利用BenMap工具在10km×10km空间网格尺度上估计O₃污染的健康损失和健康经济价值.结果表明，O₃浓度具有较强的季节性变化，呈倒"V"型变化趋势，在空间分布上呈现明显的集聚性，即高值或低值区域集中分布，具有较强的空间正相关性；通过O₃暴露系数模拟人群室内、室外O₃暴露情况，在统计意义上估计得到2017年O₃污染共计造成我国全因早逝人数98473例（95%置信区间：53419~143292），其中心血管疾病早逝风险约占45%，以不同学者估算得到的单位统计生命价值为基础，估计得到的健康经济损失在197~978亿元之间，约占2017年全国GDP的0.05%~0.26%.     

Patchy Distribution Fields: An Interleaved Survey Design and Reconstruction Adequacy

A mathematical model was used to compare the effects of a regular (one-pass) or interleaved (two-pass) acoustic survey on the adequacy of reconstructing patchy distribution fields. The model simulates fish or plankton patches of different shapes and spatial orientations, and a set of parallel or zigzag transects forming a regular or interleaved acoustic survey. The efficiency of a survey is determined by the adequacy of a reconstructed field to that originally generated, which is evaluated by calculating their correlations. Regarding the immovable fields, the efficiency of a regular or interleaved acoustic survey was tested with the following two alternative assumptions: (1) the entire survey was completed; (2) the survey was interrupted for some reason at the moment when one transect remained non-accomplished. In the former case, the efficiencies of both acoustic surveys were nearly the same; in the latter case, the efficiency of an interleaved survey was superior to that of a regular one. With respect to movable fields, the efficiency of the completed interleaved surveys was even higher than that of the regular ones. Thus, the results obtained allow us to conclude that an interleaved survey is expedient in cases where there is no preference regarding the position of a vessel for further work.     

中国居民直接生活能源消费碳排放区域差异及影响因素分析

基于2003-2015年中国30个省份的居民直接生活能耗碳排放数据,利用空间自相关分析其空间格局变化,并利用地理加权回归模型分析了居民消费所产生的二氧化碳排放影响因素。结果表明,中国省域的碳排放空间依赖作用较为显著;居民消费水平、居民直接生活能耗碳排放强度、劳动年龄人口比重对居民人均直接生活能耗碳排放量的增加具有促进作用;家庭规模对人均碳排放的影响呈现较强的负向抑制作用。中国经济发展的区域不平衡在碳排放方面凸显为居民直接生活能源消费碳排放的差异,并在集聚格局上表现出多种类型。     

Accumulation features and temporal trends of PCDDs, PCDFs and PCBs in Baikal seals (Pusa sibirica)

This study investigated the accumulation features and temporal trends of PCDD/Fs, dioxin-like PCBs (DL-PCBs) and non-dioxin-like PCBs (NDL-PCBs) in the blubber of Baikal seals collected in 1992 and 2005. DL-PCBs (480-3600 ng/g) and NDL-PCBs (980-35,000 ng/g) were dominant contaminants. Concentrations of PCDDs and PCBs in males were significantly higher than in females. In males, age-dependent accumulation was observed for PCDDs, mono-ortho PCBs and NDL-PCBs. PCDFs and non-ortho PCBs showed no such trends, implying that exposure of seals to these contaminants has been decreasing in recent years. No decreasing temporal trend was observed for PCDDs, mono-ortho PCBs and NDL-PCBs, suggesting that Baikal seals are still exposed to PCDDs and PCBs. TEQs of PCDDs and mono-ortho PCBs in seals collected in 2005 accounted for 62-77% of total TEQs. The TEQ levels in 40% of the specimens exceeded the threshold level for immunosuppression observed in harbor seals (209 pg/g).     

贵州省县域废水排放与社会经济发展的相关分析

随着社会经济的加速发展，废水排放量也在不断的增加，使得环境质量大大降低，从而反作用于社会经济发展，影响社会经济的可持续发展。对于一个欠发达地区而言，协调社会经济与环境保护之间的关系至关重要。以贵州省2005、2010年88个县级面板数据为依据，利用空间计量方法，探究影响废水排放量的主要因子，建立贵州省废水排放量变化的经典线性回归模型和空间滞后模型，结果显示，第三产业的发展是导致贵州废水排放量增加的主要原因。     

Dynamics of heavy-metal transfer between biotic (Cytheria chione and Cerastoderma edule) and abiotic (water and sediment) components in marine environment (Bay of Martil, Moroccan Mediterranean coast)

This study deals with the transfer of heavy metals (Hg, Cd, Pb, Cr, Ni, Ti, Zn, and Cu) between abiotic and biotic components (Cytheria chione and Cerastoderma edule) in the inshore intertidal zones of Tetouan/Martil over 2 yr of investigation (1992-1994). Analysis of the heavy-metal accumulation kinetics in Cytheria chione and Cerastoderma edule shows that their highest contents occur during the spring-summer period when an important proliferation of the plankton biomass occurs. However, the accumulation of Cd is higher during the period between winter and spring. In general, heavy-metal concentrations are higher at Cytheria chione than at Cerastoderma edule. These results, according to previous studies, suggest the presence of significant correlations and dynamic reciprocal transfer of heavy metals among seawater, sediment, and molluscs. They also suggest that the level of contamination of decreasing heavy metals follows the sequence: sediment, organisms, and water. Among the molluscs investigated, the variability of the thallium (Tl) contents is difficult to detect due to the very weak presence of this metal in the analysed tissues.