Temporal changes in the utilization of amniocentesis for prenatal diagnosis by women of advanced maternal age, 1976–1983

Utilization of amniocentesis for prenatal diagnosis because of the indication of advanced maternal age (≥ 35 years at delivery) was examined in the population of B.C. over an 8-year period (1976–1983). As of 1983, approximately one out of three eligible women (≥ 35 years at delivery) is having the test. In the older group (≥ 38 years at delivery) approximately one out of two eligible women is having the test. The data do not indicate that the proportion of eligible women having amniocentesis has reached a plateau; utilization is continuing to increase. It appears that prenatal diagnosis is an ethically acceptable alternative for a large proportion of the population.     

1986-2020年上海苏州河水质时空变化特征

以1986-2020年苏州河水质监测数据为依据,将水质变化过程划分成1986-1996年、1997-2006年和2007-2020年3个阶段,系统分析了苏州河水质状况及多年时空变化特征。结果表明,在第1阶段(1986-1996年),苏州河整体处于重度污染水平,从上游到下游水质显著恶化,市区段污染严重;在第2阶段(1997-2006年),苏州河市区段水质显著改善,有机污染指标消除劣Ⅴ类,氨氮和总磷仍处于较高污染水平,上下游水质逐渐趋同;在第3阶段(2007-2020年),苏州河水质持续改善,特别是2016年以来改善明显,2020年水质达到34年来的最好水平。苏州河水质改善与上海市实施的全市及苏州河多轮环境综合治理工程、上游来水水质改善等密切相关,反映了苏州河30多年环境综合治理的突出成效,并为城市黑臭水体治理提供经验。     

Geographic sampling of urban soils for contaminant mapping: how many samples and from where

Properly sampling soils and mapping soil contamination in urban environments requires that impacts of spatial autocorrelation be taken into account. As spatial autocorrelation increases in an urban landscape, the amount of duplicate information contained in georeferenced data also increases, whether an entire population or some type of random sample drawn from that population is being analyzed, resulting in conventional power and sample size calculation formulae yielding incorrect sample size numbers vis-à-vis model-based inference. Griffith (in Annals, Association of American Geographers, 95, 740–760, 2005) exploits spatial statistical model specifications to formulate equations for estimating the necessary sample size needed to obtain some predetermined level of precision for an analysis of georeferenced data when implementing a tessellation stratified random sampling design, labeling this approach model-informed, since a model of latent spatial autocorrelation is required. This paper addresses issues of efficiency associated with these model-based results. It summarizes findings from a data collection exercise (soil samples collected from across Syracuse, NY), as well as from a set of resampling and from a set of simulation experiments following experimental design principles spelled out by Overton and Stehman (in Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods, 22, 2641–2660). Guidelines are suggested concerning appropriate sample size (i.e., how many) and sampling network (i.e., where).

Predicting tree distributions in an East African biodiversity hotspot: model selection, data bias and envelope uncertainty

The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAMs) of Tanzania and Kenya support some of the most ancient tropical rainforest on Earth. The forests are a global priority for biodiversity conservation and provide vital resources to the Tanzanian population. Here, we make a first attempt to predict the spatial distribution of 40 EAM tree species, using generalised additive models, plot data and environmental predictor maps at sub 1 km resolution. The results of three modelling experiments are presented, investigating predictions obtained by (1) two different procedures for the stepwise selection of predictors, (2) down-weighting absence data, and (3) incorporating an autocovariate term to describe fine-scale spatial aggregation. In response to recent concerns regarding the extrapolation of model predictions beyond the restricted environmental range of training data, we also demonstrate a novel graphical tool for quantifying envelope uncertainty in restricted range niche-based models (envelope uncertainty maps). We find that even for species with very few documented occurrences useful estimates of distribution can be achieved. Initiating selection with a null model is found to be useful for explanatory purposes, while beginning with a full predictor set can over-fit the data. We show that a simple multimodel average of these two best-model predictions yields a superior compromise between generality and precision (parsimony). Down-weighting absences shifts the balance of errors in favour of higher sensitivity, reducing the number of serious mistakes (i.e., falsely predicted absences); however, response functions are more complex, exacerbating uncertainty in larger models. Spatial autocovariates help describe fine-scale patterns of occurrence and significantly improve explained deviance, though if important environmental constraints are omitted then model stability and explanatory power can be compromised. We conclude that the best modelling practice is contingent both on the intentions of the analyst (explanation or prediction) and on the quality of distribution data; generalised additive models have potential to provide valuable information for conservation in the EAMs, but methods must be carefully considered, particularly if occurrence data are scarce. Full results and details of all species models are supplied in an online Appendix.     

浙江省碳排放时空格局及影响因素研究

利用2005~2010年浙江省各县市区的社会经济数据和能耗数据,测算了各县市区的碳排放总量、人均碳排放量和地均碳排放量,采用空间自相关方法揭示了县域尺度下相邻县市区碳排放指标的空间关联性,运用地理加权回归模型定量描述了各县市区碳排放总量影响因素的空间异质性。研究结果表明:(1)研究期内,浙江省的碳排放总量从30 486万t增加到49 559万t。人均碳排放量和地均碳排放量也均呈增长趋势,且空间差异显著。(2)各县市区碳排放总量、人均碳排放量和地均碳排放量均存在较强的空间自相关性,总体上浙北浙东呈高高集聚,浙西南呈低低集聚。(3)人口和投资是影响碳排放总量的重要因素,且存在空间异质性。投资对浙西南碳排放的影响逐渐增大。     

连云港市大气降尘时空分布特征

采用2018年1月—2020年2月连云港市17个监测点位降尘数据,分析连云港市大气降尘变化规律和时空分布特征.结果表明,2018年连云港市平均降尘量为11.6 t/(km2·30 d),超过江苏省考核标准[6 t/(km2·30 d)],超标倍数为0.93,其呈现出先增大再降低再增大的规律,春季、秋季降尘量最大,与大风...     

长春市热岛效应的时空演变研究

以长春市为例,借助1988年9月25日,1995年9月29日和2000年9月18日三个时相的TM/ETM+遥感影像,研究长春市近12年热岛效应的时空演化规律。研究发现:长春市热岛效应明显且多年稳定存在,热岛中心主要分布在宽城区南部、二道区北部伊通河两岸和绿园区西南部;绿园区西南部和宽城区西北部强热岛区面积呈逐年增加态势,二道区北部伊通河两岸热状况有所改善;从1998年到1995年和从1995年到2000年,热岛面积分别增加约9.32 km2和14.93km2,增长速度加快。     

Temporal trends of polyfluoroalkyl compounds (PFCs) in liver tissue of grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) from the Baltic Sea, 1974-2008

Temporal trends of polyfluoroalkyl compounds (PFCs) were examined in grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) liver from the Baltic Sea over a period of 35 years (1974-2008). In total, 17 of 43 PFCs were found, including the perfluoroalkyl sulfonates (C₄-C₁₀ PFSAs), perfluorooctanesulfinate (PFOSi), long chain perfluoroalkyl carboxylates (C₇-C₁₄ PFCAs), and perfluoroalkyl sulfonamides (i.e., perfluorooctane sulfonamide (FOSA) and N-ethyl perfluorooctane sulfonamide (EtFOSA)), whereas saturated and unsaturated fluorotelomer carboxylates, shorter chain PFCAs and perfluoroalkyl phosphonic acids were not detected. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) was the predominant compound (9.57-1444 ng g⁻¹ wet weight (ww)), followed by perfluorononanoate (PFNA, 0.47-109 ng g⁻¹ ww). C₆-C₈ PFSAs, PFOSi and C₇-C₁₃ PFCAs showed statistically significant increasing concentrations between 1974 and 1997, with a peak in 1997 and then decreased or levelled off (except for C₁₂ and C₁₃ PFCAs). FOSA had a different temporal trend with a maximum in 1989 followed by significant decreasing concentrations until 2008. Toxicological implications for grey seals are limited, but the maximal PFOS concentration found in this study was about 40 times lower than the predicted lowest observed effect concentrations (LOEC). The statistically significant decreasing concentrations or levelling off for several PFCs in the relative closed marine ecosystem of the Baltic Sea indicate a rapidly responding to reduced emissions to the marine environment. However, the high concentrations of PFOS and continuing increasing concentrations of the longer chain PFCAs (C₁₂-C₁₄) shows that further work on the reduction of environmental emissions of PFCs are necessary.     

Temporal trends in the bioaccumulation of trace metals in herring, sprat, and cod from the southern Baltic Sea in the 1994–2003 period

This study is based on raw data obtained from 1 225 samples of herring (Clupea harengus), sprat (Sprattus sprattus), and cod (Gadus morhua) collected in the 1994–2003 period from the Polish coastal zone of the Baltic Sea. This paper presents the results of investigations of the contents of Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb, Hg, and As in fish. The aim was to identify temporal trends in trace metal contamination and variations in the concentrations of Hg in the flesh of herring, sprat, and cod of different lengths. A positive correlation between fish length and Hg concentration was noted for cod, sprat, and herring. The temporal trend analyses of heavy metal concentrations in the fish in the 1994–2003 period indicated ten significant downward trends out of eighteen tests; these referred to concentrations of Cd, Hg, and Pb in all the species studied, and to As in sprat. Concentrations of Cu and Zn remained stable in all the species studied, as did As in herring and cod. No upward trends were detected in the concentration of trace metals in the fish studied. Smaller scale temporal variations in concentrations of some elements were also observed and were associated with natural events, such as increased river discharge resulting from floods. The most likely factors which contributed to the observed downward trends in heavy metals concentrations in fish could possibly stem from lesser quantities of Cd, Pb, and Hg being introduced to the Baltic Sea with the waters of rivers from Baltic countries, including Poland, and atmospheric depositions in the 1994–2003 period. Diminishing trends of concentrations of these elements in Baltic Sea waters are also evidence of this. These facts might indicate that advantageous changes are occurring in the concentrations of heavy metals in the southern Baltic environment.     

Long-term trends in mercury and PCB congener concentrations in gannet (Morus bassanus) eggs in Britain

Gannet (Morus bassanus) eggs from Bass Rock (North Sea) and Ailsa Craig (eastern Atlantic) were monitored for PCB congeners (1990-2004) and total mercury (1974-2004). Congener profiles for both colonies were dominated by PCBs 153, 138, 180, 118 and 170. All declined in concentration at Ailsa Craig but some (153, 170, 180) remained stable or increased slightly at Bass Rock. Egg congener concentrations at Bass Rock were typically 10-fold higher than at Ailsa Craig by 2002, and Principal Component Analysis indicated that colony differences were driven by the dominant congeners. Egg mercury concentrations were significantly lower at Bass Rock than at Ailsa Craig and temporal trends differed, there being a significant decline at Ailsa Craig but a marginal increase at Bass Rock. Our results suggest there may be differences in contamination between the eastern Atlantic and North Sea and/or there are colony differences in prey selection and associated contaminant loads.