黄河巨洪发生时间规律的讨论

本文讨论了黄河巨洪发生的三个时间规律。一是巨洪一般发生在太阳活动的峰年或谷年;二是巨洪发生在甘、新、蒙交接区7级以上大震后一年内;三是巨洪发生在重合于25年周期的年份(从1933年算起),以及重合于这个周期的公度性年份和黄金分割年份。另外对太阳活动和巨洪的相关机制和大震与巨洪之间的相关机制也作了讨论。     

基于GIS多准则评价与BP神经网络的暴雨洪涝灾害风险辨识--以闽三角地区为例

灾害风险辨识是灾害有效防控的重要环节之一,辨识体系与风险水平之间的非线性复杂关系使研究方法向精细化、智能化转型。闽三角地区是我国重要的沿海经济开放区,独特的“山-海”自然地理格局、起伏破碎的地形、高发的台风暴潮和极端短时降雨特征使其常遭受洪涝灾害侵扰。以闽三角为例,将生态服务价值纳入风险评价体系,构建基于GIS多准则评价与BP神经网络模型的风险辨识方法,旨在完善评价体系的同时,弥补传统评价方法存在的非线性缺陷和主观依赖,并以此为基础,进一步探究该地区风险空间分布规律和空间格局,为灾害风险防控提供思路。结果表明:①基于GIS多准则评价与BP神经网络模型的风险辨识方法能够系统准确的认知暴雨洪涝灾害风险水平与空间分布;②高风险区主要分布在河流沿岸、河口处、湾区,且人口、经济活动较活跃地区,城市化发展快速区与缓慢区相比,更容易遭受洪涝灾害威胁;③洪涝风险以高-高和低-低集聚为主,风险根据空间自相关性特征分为“整体随机”“局部随机-邻域集聚”和“整体集聚”三种类型。最后根据风险特征将闽三角地区高风险分为“厦门集美版块”“泉州湾区版块”“漳州县区版块”,分别提出灾害治理建议。     

Status and trends of mercury pollution of the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems in Poland

The goal of this paper is to assess the current status and trends of total mercury (THg) contamination of the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems in Poland. The study shows that the reduced domestic and worldwide atmospheric emission of Hg resulted in decreased THg level in the terrestrial biotope and biosphere. Considering that Poland is one of the main Hg emitters in Europe, the THg concentrations in its abiotic environment are still elevated. However, the THg level in terrestrial organisms is relatively low, which is because a large proportion of Hg deposited on land is accumulated in organic-rich soils. Regarding the THg concentration, consumption of wildlife and livestock from Poland is safe for humans. Nevertheless, the authors indicate the need for effective environmental monitoring, based on selected bioindicators, which is crucial considering the slowing reduction of Hg emission combined with the consequences of the changing climate.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01505-1.     

Research on the Variation of Population Distribution and Its Characteristics Based on Spatial Autocorrelation Method: A Case Study of Poyang Lake Region in Jiangxi Province

Abstract

According to Statistical Yearbook of Jiangxi Province (2001~2006), We analyze the time-space variation of population distribution of Poyang Lake region from the two points of view. The former is quality of population, which involves culture structure, occupational structure, age structure and sex structure of population. The latter is quantity of population, which only involves the amount of population. Furthermore, we can reveal the internal relations and action mechanism of variation of population distribution by analyzing the regional economic development, population urbanization, land use and ecological landscape of Poyang Lake region. It is important to provide help for region planning, ecological landscape planning and environmental protection by correct understanding the man-land relationship of natural-human ecosystem in Poyang Lake region.     

天津市“十三五”期间O3污染特征和驱动因子

为了解“十三五”期间天津市O₃污染特征和驱动因素,基于2016～2020年高时空分辨率的在线监测数据,利用空间自相关、空间热点分析和STIRPAT模型分析了O₃污染空间分布、聚集特征和驱动因子.结果表明,2016～2020年天津市O₃浓度变化特征呈现污染发生时间点提前和污染范围扩大的趋势.6～10月O₃污染分布具有显著聚集性,高值-高值聚集区主要为市内六区、北辰区、津南区和静海区,O₃浓度在西南部地区形成高值热点聚集区,在东北部地区形成低值冷点聚集区.气温、小风百分率和日照时数等气象因子与NO_x排放量、 VOCs排放量和机动车保有量等社会因子对O₃浓度有显著性影响,综合驱动STIRPAT模型的回归拟合效果比单一气象因子或社会因子模型更好.为科学高效地开展“十四五”期间O₃污染的防治,在关注气象条件基础上,在“双碳”目标的约束下,天津市应进一步提升钢铁、石化、火电和建材等行业全过程排放的绩效水平,引导企业清洁化提升...     

Spatial Considerations in Wet and Dry Periods for Phosphorus in Streams of the Fort Cobb Watershed,United States

The Fort Cobb Watershed in Oklahoma has diverse biogeophysical settings and provides an opportunity to explore the association of water quality with a diverse set of landscapes during both wet (April 2007‐December 2009) and dry (January 2005‐March 2007) periods. The objective of this work was to identify spatial patterns in phosphorus (P) (soluble reactive P [SRP] and bioavailable P [BAP]) associated with landscape metrics for two distinct streamflow regimes. Spatial autocorrelation of P was evaluated using contiguous (side‐by‐side) and upstream (upstream:downstream) connectivity matrices. Biogeophysical metrics were compiled for each contributing area, and were partitioned based on association to P concentrations. Results for both SRP and BAP indicated that spatial autocorrelation was present (p < 0.05). There was more spatial autocorrelation and stream P concentrations were three to five times higher in the Wet phase than in the Dry phase (p < 0.05). Analysis with recursive partitioning resulted in higher R² with spatial autocorrelation than without spatial autocorrelation and indicated that lateral metrics (topography, soil, geology, management) were better predictors for SRP than instream metrics. During Wet phase, lateral metrics indicative of rapid surface and subsurface water movement were associated with higher P stream concentrations. This research demonstrated that we can detect landscapes more vulnerable to P losses and/or contaminations in either drought or very wet periods.     

环空带压气井保护液液位测试方法研究

为了有效检测环空保护液位,评估气井环空带压情况,在传统回声法检测的基础上,提出了基于频谱分析及自相关分析的2种液位检测方法;搭建了液位检测试验系统,开展了不同环空压力下的液位检测试验,计算了不同压力下的环空声速;设计了FIR低通滤波器对液面回波信号进行滤波处理,同时利用了上述2种方法计算液位值并与实际值及传统液位计算方法对比,得出了声衰减系数并评判了衰减过程对液面回波信号频谱分析的影响程度。研究结果表明:设计的FIR低通滤波器适用于所建液位检测试验的滤波处理过程;频谱分析及自相关分析都能够有效检测液位高度,最大误差分别为1.65%和0.61%,自相关分析方法具有更高的精确度;声衰减系数整体较小,对液面回波信号频谱分析结果影响较小。     

Natural forest regrowth as a proxy variable for agricultural land abandonment in the Swiss mountains: a spatial statistical model based on geophysical and socio-economic variables

In many European mountain regions, natural forest regrowth on abandoned agricultural land and the related consequences for the environment are issues of increasing concern. We developed a spatial statistical model based on multiple geophysical and socio-economic variables to investigate the pattern of natural forest regrowth in the Swiss mountain area between the 1980s and 1990s. Results show that forest regrowth occurred primarily in areas with low temperature sum, intermediate steepness and soil stoniness as well as close to forest edges and relatively close to roads. Model results suggest that regions with weak labor markets are favored in terms of land abandonment and forest regrowth. We could not find an effect of population change on land abandonment and forest regrowth. Therefore, we conclude that decision makers should consider non-linearities in the pattern of forest regrowth and the fact that labor markets have an effect on land abandonment and forest regrowth when designing measures to prevent agricultural land abandonment and natural forest regrowth in the Swiss mountains.     

基于微空间单元的岩溶峡谷区土地利用结构演变

采用2004年、2010年和2015年分辨率均为2.5 m的SPOT等遥感影像和社会经济数据,创建200 m×200 m网格的微空间单元,计算单元网格内地类面积占比、土地利用程度综合指数,并结合双变量局部空间自相关和热点分析法,深入研究岩溶峡谷区土地利用结构演变特征。结果表明：（1）2004年林地、耕地、聚落和裸岩裸土网格内平均占比分别为6.46%、11.76%、0.87%、28.86%,2010年分别为10.36%、8.77%、1.27%、27.13%,2015年分别为9.13%、10.30%、26.18%、1.29%;（2）各种土地利用类型在空间分布上具有明显的空间差异特征;（3）耕地热点区呈减少趋势,且后期主要集中在研究区西南部,林地热点区总体增加,裸岩裸土极热点区逐渐向研究区东北部收缩。而近几年土地利用程度热点区逐渐向研究区西北部延伸,花椒林则主要分布于北部干热河谷地带。简而言之,花江峡谷区林地面积增加,且逐渐向集中连片演变,而裸岩地逐渐向峡谷区北部以及东北部收缩,研究区农户生计多样化发展及交通条件的改善,使得土地压力减小,生态环境逐渐转好。本文以典型岩溶地貌单元为代表,揭示中国西南岩溶山地的土地利用演变规律及内部差异性,对研究更大尺度土地利用演变特征与规律具有重要意义。     

中国臭氧时空分布特征及与社会经济因素影响分析

本文根据2015～2017年中国大陆338个城市空气质量监测站臭氧(O_3)浓度数据,综合利用空间插值法、全局自相关法和地理加权回归模型(GWR),探讨了O_3浓度的时空变化特征及其与社会经济因素的关系。结果表明,2015～2017年中国大陆338个城市的O_3日最大8小时浓度为2～300μg/m~3,其中超标天数比例为5. 9%,323个城市达标率在85%以上; O_3月均值变化曲线基本呈"单峰状",5月达到峰值,12月最低; O_3浓度季节变化为夏季春季秋季冬季; O_3日变化特征为夜间到清晨O_3浓度很低,上午8∶00左右开始升高,下午16∶00达到峰值;中国华北地区、华东地区和华中地区O_3污染严重,华南地区、西南地区、西北地区和东北地区整体污染较低。O_3浓度在全国尺度上的集聚性呈上升趋势,GWR表明,人口密度、人均私家车保有量与O_3浓度显著正相关,第一产业占比与O_3浓度显著负相关。