Nonparametric spatial covariance functions: Estimation and testing

Spatial autocorrelation techniques are commonly used to describe genetic and ecological patterns. To improve statistical inference about spatial covariance, we propose a continuous nonparametric estimator of the covariance function in place of the spatial correlogram. The spline correlogram is an adaptation of a recent development in spatial statistics and is a generalization of the commonly used correlogram. We propose a bootstrap algorithm to erect a confidence envelope around the entire covariance function. The meaning of this envelope is discussed. Not all functions that can be drawn inside the envelope are candidate covariance functions, as they may not be positive semidefinite. However, covariance functions that do not fit, are not supported by the data. A direct estimate of the L₀ spatial correlation length with associated confidence interval is offered and its interpretation is discussed. The spline correlogram is found to have high precision when applied to synthetic data. For illustration, the method is applied to electrophoretic data of an alpine grass (Poa alpina).     

Landscape connectivity changes analysis for monitoring desertification of Minqin county, China

Landscape connectivity, as an important indicator of regional landscape functional pattern measured by cost–distances model, could both reveal evidence of, and act as an indicator, for desertification. Using Minqin county as a case study, this study was further to test cost–distance connectivity for indicating desertification, and to analyze temporal changes of connectivity in the county from 1977 to 1997. The results further indicate the connectivity interpreted as lower cost–distance and higher risk of desertification. The temporal change analysis of connectivity provides more detail supplement of desertification processes. Landscape connectivity changes in the county had three distinctive phases, the strongest decline of log cost–distance with overwhelming decrease area and decrease amount in the period 1977–1984, and its slight decline with the relative balance between the high decrease amount and high increase amount in the period 1984–1992, then its the slight decline with the relative balance between the low decrease amount and low increase amount in the period 1992–1997. The frequent temporal and spatial transition in source class, grassland, alkali–saline land and irrigated cultivated land caused negative effects on the oasis environment.     

Statistical matching for conservation science

The awareness of the need for robust impact evaluations in conservation is growing and statistical matching techniques are increasingly being used to assess the impacts of conservation interventions. Used appropriately matching approaches are powerful tools, but they also pose potential pitfalls. We outlined important considerations and best practice when using matching in conservation science. We identified 3 steps in a matching analysis. First, develop a clear theory of change to inform selection of treatment and controls and that accounts for real-world complexities and potential spillover effects. Second, select the appropriate covariates and matching approach. Third, assess the quality of the matching by carrying out a series of checks. The second and third steps can be repeated and should be finalized before outcomes are explored. Future conservation impact evaluations could be improved by increased planning of evaluations alongside the intervention, better integration of qualitative methods, considering spillover effects at larger spatial scales, and more publication of preanalysis plans. Implementing these improvements will require more serious engagement of conservation scientists, practitioners, and funders to mainstream robust impact evaluations into conservation. We hope this article will improve the quality of evaluations and help direct future research to continue to improve the approaches on offer.     

Dechlorane Plus (DP) in air and plants at an electronic waste (e-waste) site in South China

Air and foliage samples (Eucalyptus spp. and Pinus massoniana Lamb.) were collected from e-waste and reference sites in South China and analyzed for Dechlorane Plus (DP) and two dechlorinated DPs. DP concentrations in the air were 13.1-1794 pg/m³ for the e-waste site and 0.47-35.7 pg/m³ for the reference site, suggesting the recycling of e-waste is an important source of DP to the environment. Plant DP, with concentrations of 0.45-51.9 ng/g dry weight at the e-waste site and 0.09-2.46 ng/g at the reference site, exhibited temporal patterns similar to the air DP except for pine needle at the reference site. The air-plant exchange of DP could be described with the two-compartment model. Anti-Cl₁₁ DP was measured in most air and plant samples from the e-waste site. The ratios of anti-Cl₁₁ DP to anti-DP in the air and plants may indicate the preferential uptake of dechlorinated DP by plant compared with DP.     

Reprint of: Temporal trends of polyfluoroalkyl compounds (PFCs) in liver tissue of grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) from the Baltic Sea, 1974-2008

Temporal trends of polyfluoroalkyl compounds (PFCs) were examined in grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) liver from the Baltic Sea over a period of 35 years (1974-2008). In total, 17 of 43 PFCs were found, including the perfluoroalkyl sulfonates (C₄-C₁₀ PFSAs), perfluorooctanesulfinate (PFOSi), long chain perfluoroalkyl carboxylates (C₇-C₁₄ PFCAs), and perfluoroalkyl sulfonamides (i.e., perfluorooctane sulfonamide (FOSA) and N-ethyl perfluorooctane sulfonamide (EtFOSA)), whereas saturated and unsaturated fluorotelomer carboxylates, shorter chain PFCAs and perfluoroalkyl phosphonic acids were not detected. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) was the predominant compound (9.57-1444 ng g⁻¹ wet weight (ww)), followed by perfluorononanoate (PFNA, 0.47-109 ng g⁻¹ ww). C₆-C₈ PFSAs, PFOSi and C₇-C₁₃ PFCAs showed statistically significant increasing concentrations between 1974 and 1997, with a peak in 1997 and then decreased or levelled off (except for C₁₂ and C₁₃ PFCAs). FOSA had a different temporal trend with a maximum in 1989 followed by significant decreasing concentrations until 2008. Toxicological implications for grey seals are limited, but the maximal PFOS concentration found in this study was about 40 times lower than the predicted lowest observed effect concentrations (LOEC). The statistically significant decreasing concentrations or levelling off for several PFCs in the relative closed marine ecosystem of the Baltic Sea indicate a rapidly responding to reduced emissions to the marine environment. However, the high concentrations of PFOS and continuing increasing concentrations of the longer chain PFCAs (C₁₂-C₁₄) shows that further work on the reduction of environmental emissions of PFCs are necessary.     

江苏省人口城乡结构差异的多尺度研究

利用"全国第四、五、六次人口普查"等数据,基于"多尺度"分析框架,综合运用总体差异测度指数(标准差、锡尔指数及其分解)、马尔可夫链、ESDA等方法,分析1990~2010年江苏省不同尺度人口城乡结构差异的时空动态演化。结果表明:(1)20a来,江苏省人口城乡结构无论绝对差异还是相对差异性在各尺度上均呈缩小趋势,且前10a大幅缩小、后10a缩小幅度减缓。相对差异值及其缩小程度排序均从大到小依次为县域、市域、区域。主要受地区发展基础、增长极的带动能力及范围、政府政策侧重以及人口迁移机制等多种因素差异性的影响。由于三大区域间通过人口流动、交通、产业、资源等的联动效应,因而三大区域间差异的缩小对全省差异缩小的贡献最大。(2)前10a人口城乡结构类型转移概率波动性大,后10a趋向稳定。苏南各市区存在高水平"俱乐部趋同"现象。(3)虽然从区域尺度上看,苏南、苏北两极分化有所缓和,但从县域小尺度上来看,苏北大部分县域与苏南不同县域之间的差距依然较大,这与实际相符合,因此小尺度的自相关分析更符合实际,且小尺度两极分化严重。县域尺度冷、热点地区具有典型的核心边缘结构、南北空间分异显著,涓滴效应逐渐显现,南北差异有所减小。最后提出在"两带一路"背景下针对不同尺度人口城乡结构合理发展的建议。     

Arsenic Background Concentrations in Florida,U.S.A. Surface Soils: Determination and Interpretation

Background concentrations of soil arsenic have been used as an alternative soil cleanup criterion in many states in the U.S. This research addresses issues related to the interpretation of background concentrations of arsenic in near pristine soils in Florida. Total arsenic was measured in 448 taxonomic and geographic representative surface soil samples using USEPA Method 3052 (HCl-HNO 3 -HF, microwave digestion) and graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrophotometry analysis procedure. Values were log-normally distributed, with geometric mean and baseline concentration (defined as 95% of the expected range of background concentrations) providing the most satisfactory statistical results. An upper baseline concentration of 6.21 mg As/kg was estimated for undisturbed soils (n=267) compared to 7.63 mg As/kg for disturbed soils (n=181). Temporal trend of total soil arsenic concentrations from 1967 to 1989 paralleled decreased usage of arsenic in U.S. agriculture. Soil arsenic background concentrations were generally higher in south Florida than in north and central Florida, and associated with wet soils. Individual high arsenic sites were scattered throughout the state, but the most highly concentrated of these occurred in the Leon-Lee belt along the Ocala uplift district extending to the southwestern flatwoods district. Extrapolation of the data using a single arsenic value regardless of the taxonomic and geographical differences in soil arsenic distribution would underestimate potential arsenic contamination in upland soils.     

Temporal evolution in PPCP removal from urban wastewater by constructed wetlands of different configuration: a medium-term study

Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) are widely distributed in urban wastewaters and can be removed to some extent by constructed wetlands (CWs). The medium-term (3-5 years) behaviour of these systems regarding PPCP removal is still unknown. Seven mesocosm-scale (1 m²) CWs of different configurations were operated outdoors for 39 months under the same conditions to assess their PPCP removal ability and temporal evolution. CWs differed in some design parameters, namely plant presence, species chosen (Typha angustifolia vs Phragmites australis), flow configuration and presence/absence of gravel bed (floating macrophytes surface flow, FM-SF; free-water surface flow, FW-SF; free-water subsurface flow, FW-SSF; or conventional horizontal subsurface flow, SSF). PPCP efficiencies decreased throughout time and performance differences among CWs disappeared with the systems aging. This could be due to a homogenization process in the systems caused by detrimental factors like saturation, clogging and shading. Winter efficiencies were lower than summer ones for salicylic acid, caffeine, methyl dihydrojasmonate, galaxolide and tonalide, and seasonal biological activities seem key factors to explain this fact. Maximal removal efficiencies were achieved in an unplanted-FW-SSF for ketoprofen (47-81%), naproxen (58-81%) and salicylic acid (76-98%); in an unplanted-SSF for caffeine (65-99%); in a Phragmites-FM-SF for ibuprofen (49-96%) and diclofenac (16-68%); in a Typha-FM-SF for carbamazepine (35-71%); and in a Typha-FW-SSF for methyl dihydrojasmonate (71-96%), galaxolide (67-82%) and tonalide (55-74%). Photodegradation could be involved in ketoprofen, naproxen, ibuprofen and diclofenac removal. Carbamazepine and diclofenac were moderately removed by the most efficient CWs studied. Carbamazepine might be eliminated by vegetal uptake.     

河南省2014-2020年PM2.5浓度时空分布特征及气象成因分析

利用2014—2020年河南省18个地级城市空气质量监测资料和气象数据,运用空间自相关分析、ArcGIS制图及相关性分析等方法,从时空分布特征上揭示河南省PM_2.5污染特征,并分析其气象成因。结果表明：河南省2014—2020年PM_2.5年均浓度为40～100μg/m³,总体呈递减趋势。PM_2.5浓度季节分布特征为冬季>秋季=春季>夏季。河南省2019年和2020年PM_2.5污染空间分布存在显著自相关,污染程度严重的地区主要是中部和东北部地区。冷热点分析发现,热点城市为濮阳、安阳、济源、郑州、新乡、焦作、鹤壁,冷点城市为信阳、驻马店、周口。PM_2.5在年尺度上与气压、气温、相对湿度、风向、风速、能见度显著相关,其中,与气温相关性最高,相关系数为-0.424。当相对湿度处于90%以下时,PM_2.5浓度与相对湿度呈正相关;而在相对湿度超过90%之后,PM_2.5浓度下降至70μg/m³...