Forecasts of habitat loss and fragmentation due to urban growth are sensitive to source of input data

The conversion of natural habitat to urban settlements is a primary driver of biodiversity loss, and species' persistence is threatened by the extent, location, and spatial pattern of development. Urban growth models are widely used to anticipate future development and to inform conservation management, but the source of spatial input to these models may contribute to uncertainty in their predictions. We compared two sources of historic urban maps, used as input for model calibration, to determine how differences in definition and scale of urban extent affect the resulting spatial predictions from a widely used urban growth model for San Diego County, CA under three conservation scenarios. The results showed that rate, extent, and spatial pattern of predicted urban development, and associated habitat loss, may vary substantially depending on the source of input data, regardless of how much land is excluded from development. Although the datasets we compared both represented urban land, different types of land use/land cover included in the definition of urban land and different minimum mapping units contributed to the discrepancies. Varying temporal resolution of the input datasets also contributed to differences in projected rates of development. Differential predicted impacts to vegetation types illustrate how the choice of spatial input data may lead to different conclusions relative to conservation. Although the study cannot reveal whether one dataset is better than another, modelers should carefully consider that geographical reality can be represented differently, and should carefully choose the definition and scale of their data to fit their research objectives.     

Development pattern and enhancing system of automotive components remanufacturing industry in China

Along with the increasing number of automotive output and End-of-Life vehicles (ELVs) in China, resources shortage and environmental pollution are aggravating, so the tremendous need to reuse automotive components gives birth to the industry. The Chinese government becomes to realize that it is necessary to build a conservation-oriented and environment-friendly harmonious society. As the ultimate form of recycling, remanufacturing will be an effective method to promote the development of Chinese circular economy. The automotive remanufacturing industry in China is just at the preliminary stage, this paper presents some problems before remanufacturing, during remanufacturing and after remanufacturing, and then it points out several barriers, such as restrictive policies and regulations, consumer acceptance, scarcity of technologies, etc. Like many other developed countries, Chinese remanufacturing industry will also experience the primary stage, growth stage and developed stage. while the emphasis of resources input will not be the same. By analyzing the resources input characteristics at different development stages, three development patterns, such as the Government Incenting Pattern, Technology Driving Pattern and Market Leading Pattern, are put forward. At present, the cooperation of the government, industry, universities and research institutes, etc, will jointly construct the enhancing system of automotive components remanufacturing industry in China. Finally, it concludes with a summary and some suggestions in the field.     

福建乡村温泉旅游开发模式研究——以闽侯光明温泉为例

福建省温泉资源丰富,温泉旅游开发是福建省旅游业近阶段焦点之一.开发模式创新是温泉旅游企业赢得市场竞争,实现永续经营的关键.在总结国内外其他学者对温泉旅游开发模式研究的基础上,从发展推动力、资源利用集约程度、温泉与其他产业的对接、温泉主题文化、温泉度假区代系、温泉企业经营管理等六个方面对温泉旅游开发模式进行了系统解构,以闽侯县光明温泉为例,对福建乡村温泉旅游开发模式选择进行了探讨.     

农民工参加工伤保险的影响因素研究——基于政策和企业视角的实证分析

为了解我国农民工参加工伤保险的影响因素,提高农民工工伤保险的参保率,通过对全国9个省市共3 848名农民工的问卷调查,应用Logistic回归模型分析政策的因素和企业的因素对农民工参加工伤保险的影响。结果表明,农民工是否参加工伤保险受到各地工伤保险政策以及农民工所在企业两方面的影响。从政策的角度看,个体工商户参加工伤保险的规定、工伤保险基金的统筹水平以及工伤保险的偿付方式对农民工参加工伤保险有显著影响;从企业的角度看,农民工所在企业是否建有工会、企业所有制对农民工参加工伤保险有显著影响。建议各地进一步明确工伤保险政策中对个体工商户的参保要求,继续提高工伤保险基金的统筹水平,增加农民工领取工伤保险偿付的方式。建议劳动保障部门加强对未建有工会的企业,加强对私企,特别是个体工商户的监察力度。     

机械原因飞行事故诱因的分析与预测研究

为更好地预防机械原因飞行事故,提高安全管理和决策的水平,提出机械原因飞行事故诱因的分析与预测方法。首先借鉴"瑞士奶酪"模型的思想,建立了机械原因飞行事故诱因分析分类体系;而后构建了事故的二进制矩阵,通过进行比例矩阵分析和单一聚类分析来辨识重要的单诱因、两两诱因组合和事故主要诱发模式;最后采用Bootstrap方法对其进行预测。结果表明:所提出的方法能够辨识出机械原因飞行事故中的重要单诱因、两两诱因组合和主要诱发模式,并对其做出较为准确的预测,进而对制订事故防控预案,预防此类事故的发生具有重要意义。     

地下水曝气技术（AS）的国内外研究进展

地下水曝气法（Air Sparging,AS）凭借其高效、原位的优势已经成为治理土壤、地下水有机污染的重要技术,其修复机理是将加压空气注入到饱和含水层以下,有机污染物通过相间传质作用（溶解、挥发、解吸、生物降解等）转化为挥发性污染物,并随气流迁移至包气带,再由其他抽气装置收集到地表气体处理设备。本文总结了AS技术在理论模型、曝气性能影响因素（气体流型、曝气影响半径）等方面的研究现状,归纳了气体流型的发展过程以及测量曝气影响半径的常见方法。地下水曝气法在国外地下水、土壤有机污染修复中的应用越来越广泛,理论研究方面也比较成熟。文章比较了AS技术在国内外的研究和应用情况,认为目前该技术应朝着综合的方向发展,以提高污染物修复效率。     

基于可变模糊组合方法的瓦斯涌出量预测

矿井工作面瓦斯涌出是一个动态不确定过程。在分析了影响瓦斯涌出因素基础上,将可变模糊聚类与可变模糊模式识别两种模型相结合,提出了一种瓦斯涌出量预测的可变模糊组合方法。该方法首先利用粗糙集理论确定权重初值及各因素的重要性,然后利用可变模糊聚类模型求解最优模糊分类中心矩阵和最优权重,最后利用模式识别模型对待预测样本进行预测。以某矿井瓦斯涌出量预测为例,给出了具体预测过程。结果表明：可变模糊组合方法可行、有效。     

Simulating spatiotemporal dynamics of urbanization with multi-agent systems—A case study of the Phoenix metropolitan region, USA

Urbanization is a human-dominated process and has greatly impacted biodiversity, ecosystem processes, and regional climate. To understand the socioeconomic drivers of urbanization and project future urban landscape changes, multi-agent systems provide a powerful tool. We develop an agent-based model of urban growth for the Phoenix metropolitan region of the United States, which simulates the behavior of regional authorities, real estate developers, residents, and environmentalists. The BDI (Beliefs-Desires-Intentions) structure is employed to simulate the agents behavior and decision models. The heterogeneity of agents is reflected by adjusting parameters according to the agents’ beliefs, desires and preferences. Three scenarios, baseline, economic development priority and environmental protection, are developed and analyzed. The combination of multi-agent system and spatial regression model is employed to predict the future urban development of the Phoenix metropolitan region. Landscape metrics are used to compare the spatial patterns of the urban landscape resulting from different scenarios in different times. In general, with the rapid urban expansion, the shape of urban patches will become more regular as many of them become coalesced. The spatial analysis of urban development through modeling individual and group decisions and human-environment interactions with a multi-agent systems approach can enhance our understanding of the socioeconomic driving forces and mechanisms of urban development.     

晋南两熟半干旱区“粮药”(半夏)农田生态抗旱耕作模式效益研究

采用大田试验,设计冬小麦(Triticum aestivum Linn.)在春季起身后套作半夏[Pinellia ternata(Thunb.)Breit.](小麦/半夏)、冬油菜(Brassica campestris L.)收获后复播半夏[Pinellia ternata(Thunb.)Breit.](油菜-半夏)和春玉米(Zea mays L.)与半夏[Pinellia ternata(Thunb.)Breit.]间作(玉米+半夏)3种耕作模式,探讨晋南两熟半干旱区适宜半夏的粮药耕作模式。结果表明:与油菜-半夏、玉米+半夏耕作模式相比,小麦/半夏耕作模式经济产量最高,生态效益最好;不同半夏品种中,西河半夏(原产地温度相对最低)产量最高,新绛半夏(原产地温度相对较高)产量最低。表明半夏适宜于从低温地区引种到高温地区栽培,可提高产量。与商洛半夏和新绛半夏相比,西河半夏分别增产19.1%和41.9%;小麦/半夏耕作模式为最佳粮药耕作模式,其半夏产量与油菜-半夏和玉米+半夏耕作模式相比,分别增产53.4%和70.8%。     

苏北侵蚀型海岸湿地景观时空演变特征及驱动机制

运用RS、GIS技术和景观生态学方法,对盐城国家级自然保护区侵蚀型海岸湿地1987、1997和2007年3个时相的景观数据进行分析,辨识侵蚀型海岸湿地景观格局时空演变特征。结果表明,1987—1997年,研究区光滩面积比例由76.91%下降至58.37%,碱蓬湿地由18.68%下降至5.51%,芦苇湿地由4.42%上升至13.01%,并出现了米草湿地和养殖池景观类型,1997年其面积比例分别为13.35%和9.76%。1997—2007年,碱蓬湿地退化消失,养殖池减少,芦苇湿地、米草湿地、光滩面积增加,其比例分别为15.85%、14.50%和60.86%。就景观异质性而言,多样性指数先升后降,景观优势度持续下降。景观空间演替呈现单向性特征:1987—1997年,从陆地向海洋方向演替;1997—2007年,从海洋向陆地方向演替。海岸地貌过程和植物覆被类型的连续变化导致湿地景观演变呈连续变化,但干扰往往使生态过程的连续性发生改变。