汶川地震灾区过渡房安置点场地选择中的地震问题

大地震后,如何在最短的时间内在灾区选择比较安全的过渡房安置点建设场地,是一项具有挑战性的工作。本文以四川省汶川8.0级大地震后灾区群众快速安置为背景,论述了选择过渡房安置点场地必须考虑的地震问题,并提出了处理地震断层、地表裂缝、砂土液化、坍塌等实际问题的方案;利用强余震的预测结果,分析了这些灾害对场地可能造成的危害;同时对可能潜在的滑坡、危岩崩塌、泥石流等地质灾害提出相应的处理建议,供安置点规划建设参考。     

Motorcycle crashes potentially preventable by three crash avoidance technologies on passenger vehicles

Objective: The objective of this study was to identify and quantify the motorcycle crash population that would be potential beneficiaries of 3 crash avoidance technologies recently available on passenger vehicles.

Methods: Two-vehicle crashes between a motorcycle and a passenger vehicle that occurred in the United States during 2011–2015 were classified by type, with consideration of the functionality of 3 classes of passenger vehicle crash avoidance technologies: frontal crash prevention, lane maintenance, and blind spot detection. Results were expressed as the percentage of crashes potentially preventable by each type of technology, based on all known types of 2-vehicle crashes and based on all crashes involving motorcycles.

Results: Frontal crash prevention had the largest potential to prevent 2-vehicle motorcycle crashes with passenger vehicles. The 3 technologies in sum had the potential to prevent 10% of fatal 2-vehicle crashes and 23% of police-reported crashes. However, because 2-vehicle crashes with a passenger vehicle represent fewer than half of all motorcycle crashes, these technologies represent a potential to avoid 4% of all fatal motorcycle crashes and 10% of all police-reported motorcycle crashes.

Discussion: Refining the ability of passenger vehicle crash avoidance systems to detect motorcycles represents an opportunity to improve motorcycle safety. Expanding the capabilities of these technologies represents an even greater opportunity. However, even fully realizing these opportunities can affect only a minority of motorcycle crashes and does not change the need for other motorcycle safety countermeasures such as helmets, universal helmet laws, and antilock braking systems.     

Field effectiveness evaluation of advanced driver assistance systems

Abstract

Objective: Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are a class of vehicle technologies designed to increase safety by providing drivers with timely warnings and autonomously intervening to avoid hazardous situations. Though laboratory testing suggests that ADAS technologies will greatly impact crash involvement rates, real-world evidence that characterizes their effectiveness is still limited. This study evaluates and quantifies the association of ADAS technologies with the likelihood of a moderate or severe crash for new-model BMWs in the United States.

Methods: Vehicle ADAS option information for the cohort of model year 2014 and later BMW passenger vehicles sold after January 1, 2014 (n?=?1,063,503), was coded using VIN-identified options data. ADAS technologies of interest include frontal collision warning with autonomous emergency braking, lane departure warning, and blind spot detection. BMW Automated Crash Notification system data (from January 2014 to November 2017) were merged with vehicle data by VIN to identify crashed vehicles (n?=?15,507), including date, crash severity (delta V), and area of impact. Using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling, the study calculates the adjusted hazard ratio for crashing among BMW passenger vehicles with versus without ADAS technologies. The adjusted percentage reduction in moderate and severe crashes associated with ADAS is interpreted as one minus the hazard ratio.

Results: Vehicles equipped with both autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning were 23% less likely to crash than those not equipped (hazard ratio [HR]?=?0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73–0.81), controlling for model year, vehicle size and body type. Autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning generally occur together, making it difficult to tease apart their individual effects. Blind spot detection was associated with a 14% reduction in crashes after controlling for the presence of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning (HR =0.86; 95% CI, 0.744–0.99). Differences were observed by vehicle type and crash type. The combined effect of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning was greater in newer model vehicles: Equipped vehicles were 13% less likely to crash (HR =0.87; 95% CI, 0.79–0.95) among 2014 model year vehicles versus 34% less likely to crash (HR =0.66; 95% CI, 0.57–0.77) among 2017 model year vehicles.

Conclusion: This robust cohort study contributes to the growing evidence on the effectiveness of ADAS technologies.     

土壤Cd污染对跳虫Folsomia candida的生态毒性

采矿及冶炼等行为造成了严重的土壤重金属污染,其中Cd污染及其带来的健康风险近年来引起人们的高度重视。利用弹尾目跳虫开展土壤Cd污染的生态毒理研究,对Cd污染土壤的生态风险评价具有重要意义。本研究将跳虫Folsomia candida(F.candida)暴露在不同Cd浓度污染的人工土壤中,利用跳虫存活数量、繁殖数量及回避行为实验来评价重金属Cd污染对跳虫的生态毒性。结果表明,Cd对F.candida的急性毒性LC50值为2 086.93 mg·kg~(-1),慢性毒性的繁殖抑制(28 d)EC50值为224.95 mg·kg~(-1)。此外,Cd对跳虫回避行为影响的EC50(48 h)为721.26 mg·kg~(-1)。可以看出,慢性毒性的EC50值与Cd对回避行为影响的EC50值近似,但远低于急性毒性LC50值。因此,跳虫F.candida的回避行为和繁殖率对Cd污染土壤有较高的灵敏度,可用来表征土壤中Cd的生态毒性。     

Effect of phenobarbital and polychlorinated biphenyls on the toxicity and disposition of 1,2,4,5‐tetrachlorobenzene in the rat

Soil avoidance by earthworms has been generally considered a relevant and sensitive endpoint for assessing soil contamination by xenobiotics. However, when pesticide ecotoxicological assessment is concerned, the sensitivity of the recently standardized avoidance assay has been questioned. We hypothesized that this controversy may be due to the specific pesticide mode of action of the chemicals used rather than reveal inconsistencies in the test feasibility, i.e. provided that no pesticides interfering with neuronal pathways are tested, this bioassay should keep expected high levels of sensitivity. In this study, the avoidance behaviour of the earthworm Eisenia andrei under exposure to the carbamate insecticide methomyl [S-methyl N-(methylcarbamoyloxy)thioacetimidate] was linked to the corresponding acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibition. Significant AChE inhibition occurred at lower concentrations (from 0.86 mg Kg^?1 onwards) than significant avoidance of spiked soil (from 5.62 mg Kg^?1 onwards). This indicates that assessments regarding pesticides that have neurotoxic activity may be biased if behavioral endpoints are selected. Despite theoretical hypothesis that have been raised, this should be the first study providing preliminary experimental evidence on such a link between avoidance behavior and neuronal impairment levels in earthworms. Further studies are ongoing that should refine conclusions of this study.     

Conservation Strategies for Species Affected by Apparent Competition

Apparent competition is an indirect interaction between 2 or more prey species through a shared predator, and it is increasingly recognized as a mechanism of the decline and extinction of many species. Through case studies, we evaluated the effectiveness of 4 management strategies for species affected by apparent competition: predator control, reduction in the abundances of alternate prey, simultaneous control of predators and alternate prey, and no active management of predators or alternate prey. Solely reducing predator abundances rapidly increased abundances of alternate and rare prey, but observed increases are likely short‐lived due to fast increases in predator abundance following the cessation of control efforts. Substantial reductions of an abundant alternate prey resulted in increased predation on endangered huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus) deer in Chilean Patagonia, which highlights potential risks associated with solely reducing alternate prey species. Simultaneous removal of predators and alternate prey increased survival of island foxes (Urocyon littoralis) in California (U.S.A.) above a threshold required for population recovery. In the absence of active management, populations of rare woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) continued to decline in British Columbia, Canada. On the basis of the cases we examined, we suggest the simultaneous control of predators and alternate prey is the management strategy most likely to increase abundances and probabilities of persistence of rare prey over the long term. Knowing the mechanisms driving changes in species’ abundances before implementing any management intervention is critical. We suggest scientists can best contribute to the conservation of species affected by apparent competition by clearly communicating the biological and demographic forces at play to policy makers responsible for the implementation of proposed management actions. Estrategias de Conservación para Especies Afectadas por Competencia Aparente     

Sublethal impact of paraquat on the life span and parasitic behavior of Diaeretiella rapae M’Intosh

This study focuses on assessing the impact of sublethal doses of paraquat on the survival, the emergence, the life span and the parasitic behavior of Diaeretiella rapae M’Intosh (Hymenoptera: Braconidae). The impact of sublethal doses was measured at room temperature using different densities of the cabbage aphid Brevicoryne brassicae. The results reveal that the field dose of paraquat caused 100% mortality in D. rapae. The percentage emergence of D. rapae decreased from 80.5% in the control group to 71.5% when treated with the lowest concentration of paraquat. Similarly, the life span of parasitoids that emerged from the mummy treated with paraquat also decreased significantly. Oviposition capability and ovipositor thrusting frequency of D. rapae also treated with sublethal dose paraquat decreased significantly along with a shortened patch residence time in the foraging area.     

Do mountain log skinks (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pseudemoia entrecasteauxii</Emphasis>) modify their behaviour in the presence of two predators?

Prey often adopt antipredator strategies to reduce the likelihood of predation. In the presence of predators, prey may use antipredator strategies that are effective against a single predator (specific) or that are effective against several predators (nonspecific). Most studies have been confined to single predator environments although prey are often faced with multiple predators. When more than one predator is present, specific antipredator behaviours can conflict and avoidance of one predator may increase vulnerability to another. To test how prey cope with this dilemma, I recorded the behaviours of lizards responding to the nonlethal cues of a bird and snake presented singly and simultaneously. Lizards use specific and conflicting antipredator tactics when confronted with each predator, as evidenced by refuge use. However, when both predators were present, lizards refuge use was the same as in the predator-free environment, indicating that they abandoned refuge use as a primary mechanism for predator avoidance. In the presence of both predators, they reduced their overall movement and time spent thermoregulating. This shift in behaviour may represent a compromise to minimize overall risk, following a change in predator exposure. This provides evidence of plasticity in lizard antipredator behaviour and shows that prey responses to two predators cannot be accurately predicted from what is observed when only one predator is present.Communicated by W. Cooper     

Use of chemical cues in detection of conspecific predators and prey by newts, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Notophthalmus viridescens</Emphasis>

Summary. Detection of heterospecific predators and prey via chemical cues is well known, but only a few studies have examined the potential for such discrimination in cannibalistic systems. In newts, Notophthalmus viridescens, adults are opportunistic predators of conspecific larvae. I used a laboratory bioassay to determine whether larvae and adults distinguish between chemical stimuli from members of the different age classes. Larvae distinguished between chemical stimuli from larvae and adults by decreasing their activity only following exposure to stimuli from adults. Decreased activity is consistent with an antipredator response in many prey species, including larval newts. In contrast, adults increased their activity and increased time spent in open areas in response to stimuli from larvae, but not to stimuli from adults. Increased activity is consistent with a feeding response; adults also showed increased activity and increased time in open areas in response to chemical stimuli from familiar heterospecific prey (brine shrimp). The proximate cue that allowed the newts to distinguish between the different age classes is not associated with short-term dietary differences because all stimulus animals were fed the same prey. Stimulus strength was controlled by diluting the stimulus solutions according to the volume of the stimulus animal. Therefore, there appear to be intrinsic differences in the chemical signatures of larval and adult newts.     

Assessment of Integrated Pedestrian Protection Systems with Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) and Passive Safety Components

Objective: Autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systems fitted to cars for pedestrians have been predicted to offer substantial benefit. On this basis, consumer rating programs—for example, the European New Car Assessment Programme (Euro NCAP)—are developing rating schemes to encourage fitment of these systems. One of the questions that needs to be answered to do this fully is how the assessment of the speed reduction offered by the AEB is integrated with the current assessment of the passive safety for mitigation of pedestrian injury. Ideally, this should be done on a benefit-related basis.

The objective of this research was to develop a benefit-based methodology for assessment of integrated pedestrian protection systems with AEB and passive safety components. The method should include weighting procedures to ensure that it represents injury patterns from accident data and replicates an independently estimated benefit of AEB.

Methods: A methodology has been developed to calculate the expected societal cost of pedestrian injuries, assuming that all pedestrians in the target population (i.e., pedestrians impacted by the front of a passenger car) are impacted by the car being assessed, taking into account the impact speed reduction offered by the car's AEB (if fitted) and the passive safety protection offered by the car's frontal structure. For rating purposes, the cost for the assessed car is normalized by comparing it to the cost calculated for a reference car.

The speed reductions measured in AEB tests are used to determine the speed at which each pedestrian in the target population will be impacted. Injury probabilities for each impact are then calculated using the results from Euro NCAP pedestrian impactor tests and injury risk curves. These injury probabilities are converted into cost using “harm”-type costs for the body regions tested. These costs are weighted and summed. Weighting factors were determined using accident data from Germany and Great Britain and an independently estimated AEB benefit. German and Great Britain versions of the methodology are available. The methodology was used to assess cars with good, average, and poor Euro NCAP pedestrian ratings, in combination with a current AEB system. The fitment of a hypothetical A-pillar airbag was also investigated.

Results: It was found that the decrease in casualty injury cost achieved by fitting an AEB system was approximately equivalent to that achieved by increasing the passive safety rating from poor to average. Because the assessment was influenced strongly by the level of head protection offered in the scuttle and windscreen area, a hypothetical A-pillar airbag showed high potential to reduce overall casualty cost.

Conclusions: A benefit-based methodology for assessment of integrated pedestrian protection systems with AEB has been developed and tested. It uses input from AEB tests and Euro NCAP passive safety tests to give an integrated assessment of the system performance, which includes consideration of effects such as the change in head impact location caused by the impact speed reduction given by the AEB.