The Time Invariance Principle,the absence of ecological chaos,and a fundamental pitfall of discrete modeling

This paper is to show that most discrete models used for population dynamics in ecology are inherently pathological that their predications cannot be independently verified by experiments because they violate a fundamental principle of physics. The result is used to tackle an on-going controversy regarding ecological chaos. Another implication of the result is that all dynamical systems must be modeled by differential equations. As a result it suggests that researches based on discrete modeling must be closely scrutinized and the teaching of calculus and differential equations must be emphasized for students of biology.     

Sexual selection and female fitness in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Drosophila simulans</Emphasis>

There is a current debate over the net fitness consequences of sexual selection. Do preferred males increase female fitness or are these males manipulating females for their own benefit? The evidence is mixed. Some studies find that mating with attractive males increases female fitness components, while others show that preferred males decrease measures of female fitness. In this study, we examined some of the fitness consequences of pre-copulatory sexual selection in Drosophila simulans. Virgin females were either paired with one male and given an opportunity for one copulation or were exposed simultaneously to two males. This allowed us to compare female preference (copulation latency) and fitness (longevity, lifetime productivity and rate of offspring production) both with and without the influence of male–male competition. When females had access to a single male, neither female longevity, productivity, nor short-term rate of productivity were associated with female preference, and although females mated more quickly with larger males, male size was also not associated with any female fitness measure. Inclusion of male–male competition showed that female longevity was negatively affected by preference, while productivity and rate of productivity was unaffected. This latter experiment also indicated that females preferred larger males, but again, male size was not associated with female fitness. These results indicate that females may not benefit from mating with preferred males, but they may incur survival costs.     

Fish forewarning of comprehensive toxicity in water environment based on Bayesian sequential method

Environmental impact of pollutants can be analyzed effectively by acquiring fish behavioral signals in water with biological behavior sensors. However, a variety of factors, such as the complexity of biological organisms themselves, the device error and the environmental noise, may compromise the accuracy and timeliness of model predictions. The current methods lack prior knowledge about the fish behavioral signals corresponding to characteristic pollutants, and in the event of a pollutant invasion, the fish behavioral signals are poorly discriminated. Therefore, we propose a novel method based on Bayesian sequential, which utilizes multi-channel prior knowledge to calculate the outlier sequence based on wavelet feature followed by calculating the anomaly probability of observed values. Furthermore, the relationship between the anomaly probability and toxicity is analyzed in order to achieve forewarning effectively. At last, our algorithm for fish toxicity detection is verified by integrating the data on laboratory acceptance of characteristic pollutants. The results show that only one false positive occurred in the six experiments, the present algorithm is effective in suppressing false positives and negatives, which increases the reliability of toxicity detections, and thereby has certain applicability and universality in engineering applications.     

Benefits, efforts and risks of participants in landscape co-management: an analytical framework and results from two case studies in Austria

Participatory processes in general and also in relation to managing landscape issues are gathering importance mostly due to arguments surrounding legitimacy and effectiveness in decision-making. The main aim of this research, based on a transaction costs perspective, is to present an integrated analytical framework in order to determine individual efforts (time, money), benefits and risks of participants in landscape co-management processes. Furthermore a reflection on the analytical approach developed and arising lessons to be learned for landscape co-management are presented. In the analytical framework benefit-components comprise of factors such as 'contributing to landscape maintenance/development and nature protection', 'representing one's interest group', 'co-deciding on relevant topics', 'providing and broadening one's knowledge' and 'building networks'. The risks of participation are related to a lack of information and agreements, missing support and actual decision-making power. The analytical framework is applied to two case studies in Austria: an EU LIFE-Nature project and a Cultural Landscape Project of the Provincial Government of Lower Austria. Analysis of the effort-benefit-relations provides an indication for a more effective design of co-management. Although the processes are rated as quite adequate, there is a low willingness of participants to commit additional time to co-management processes. In contrast to the Cultural Landscape Project, in the LIFE-Nature project, professionally involved persons participate next to partly and full volunteers. These uneven conditions of participation and an unfair distribution of transaction costs, jeopardize the promising chances co-management bears for landscape governance.     

入境旅游市场分析方法新探讨——以辽宁省为例

运用偏离份额(SSM)分析法,结合亲景度这一市场指标,对辽宁省1995-2007年入境旅游客源市场结构进行分析,创造性提出以亲景度为微观基础的宏观SSM市场行为分析法.分析结果是根据亲景度的变化趋势,将行为人选择偏好与市场行为相结合,提出行之有效的"判断-调节-反馈"机制,使其对入境游客源市场结构的分析更具有动态性、预测性和可把握性.     

季节调整分析在城市火灾发生规律研究中的应用

利用样本周期图法定量分析了城市火灾序列的周期性,并实例分析得出了北京市火灾时间序列具有12个月和48个月的周期性。然后采用季节调整法,将火灾时间序列中的季节因子和不规则因子提取出来,得出了经季节调整后的时间序列,从而得到了北京市火灾发生受季节因素影响的大小和城市火灾时间序列的基本发展趋势,大大提高了火灾数据之间的可比性。同时结论可为消防管理部门有针对性地采取消防监督管理措施和科学地安排消防执勤战备提供有力指导。     

Attitudes towards sex selection in the Western world

It appears that in most Western countries, son preference is somewhat stronger than daughter preference. However, when one considers the preference of women it looks as though the opposite pattern is emerging. There is a considerable social acceptance of ‘light’ methods of sex selection (such as diets), even though these methods are not proven to be effective. The inclination to use sperm separation methods appears to be greater in the United States than in some European countries. There are indications that a preference for boys or for girls is associated with attitudes towards technology, child-rearing style and the stereotyping of boys or girls. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Breeding skylarks (Alauda arvensis) on organic and conventional arable farms in The Netherlands

The aim of this study was to analyse the effects of differences in cropping pattern between organic and conventional arable farms on the breeding activity of skylarks and to assess the effects of arable crop management on skylark nest survival. Skylark nest density was seven times higher on organic farms than on conventional farms (0.63 vs. 0.09 nest per 10 ha). Skylarks showed a strong preference for spring cereals, lucerne and grass leys, all of which were mainly or exclusively grown on organic farms. On organic farms nests were initiated during the entire breeding season, but on conventional farms no nesting activity was found during the peak of the season (early May to early June). On organic farms 27% of all nests was successful. Increasing the availability of suitable breeding habitat during the peak of the breeding season on conventional farms might provide one means of enhancing breeding skylark populations. On organic farms, crop management should focus on reducing nest loss due to farming operations.     

锦州湾表层沉积物正构烷烃特征参数研究

研究了锦州湾沉积物中正构烷烃的含量、组成特征、特征比值及其来源.采集18个站位的表层沉积物样品,经正己烷/二氯甲烷（体积比1∶1）混合液索氏提取、净化浓缩后进行GC-MS分析.结果表明,正构烷烃含量（Σn-Alk）范围1.9～4.2μg.g-1,平均值2.6μg.g-1,各个站位组成特征相似,都表现为双峰型,显示了陆源与海源双重贡献特征.ΣC25～31贡献值为20%～32%,短/长链比值L/H均值为0.67,C31/C19均值3.06,类脂物比值TAR均值为2.02,3个参数显示锦州湾沉积物外来源陆源贡献值要大于海洋源,特别是2、3和7站位受到陆源河流输入影响较大.碳优势指数CPI范围1.19～2.63,均值1.73,接近于1;姥鲛烷和植烷比值Pr/Ph为0.91～1.28;样品中普遍存在不可分离化合物UCM,U/R比值为2.2～4.3,此3个参数显示出13和15站位有石油输入特征.多种特征参数比值综合分析表明该海域受到了陆源输入和石油烃污染的威胁,这可能与锦州湾地区河流排污、港口航运有关.     

两种应用场景下NDVI时间序列数据拟合方法研究

植被覆盖指数（NDVI）时间序列数据集包含地表植被的长势、生长周期、时空变化等信息,其拟合重建结果可应用于物候信息提取、生态质量评价、人类活动扰动识别、覆被变化动态监测等方面。基于TIMESAT软件,选取物候参数提取和扰动识别2个应用场景,结合地面站点数据和Jacknife法模拟数据,对比分析非对称高斯函数拟合法（AG法）、双Logistic函数拟合法（D-L法）和Savitzky-Golay滤波法（S-G法）3种方法的拟合效果。结果表明：（1）3种方法拟合重建后提取的生长开始时间（SOS）、生长结束时间（EOS）、生长周期（LOS）等物候参数接近站点数据,AG法和D-L法保持NDVI时序曲线整体变化特征的能力较强,提取的SOS和EOS更接近站点数据;（2）人类活动扰动识别应用场景中,S-G法在滤波时能够最大限度地保留时序曲线细节变化,恢复速率相关系数达到0.618,回归估计标准差低于AG法和D-L法,因此识别精度最优。