基于选择试验法的受威胁物种保护偏好及价值评估

科学评价生物多样性价值可为生物多样性和生态系统经济学（the Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity,TEEB）支持下的生物资源管理提供有效的技术方法和政策依据,对受威胁物种的保护尤为重要.从TEEB的理念和研究目标出发,以我国特有保护植物——翅果油树（Elaeagnus mollis）为例,采用选择试验法定量评估受访者对受威胁物种保护和开发的偏好以及支付意愿;针对种植面积、产品开发、树苗品种、保护投入和农户收益这5项物种属性,在多模型比较的基础上最终选择随机参数模型（RPL）和潜在分层模型（LCM）进行价值评估.结果表明:基于RPL模型得出受访者的偏好选择具有异质性,正选择偏好的属性变量按重要性表现为“保护增加投入” > “高低端产品同时开发” > “农户收益” > “树苗品种” > “种植面积”,其中对“保护增加投入”的支付意愿〔331.0元/（户·a）〕最高,其次为“高低端产品同时开发”〔242.71元/（户·a）〕;对“保护不投入”为负选择偏好,且支付意愿〔-154.71元/（户·a）〕最低.基于LCM模型可将受访者分为保护偏好型和发展偏好型2个潜在类别,前者所占样本比例远高于后者,他们更愿意在物种保护方面支付较多的费用,而后者更愿意在产品开发上支付较多的费用.补偿剩余分析得到,翅果油树保护和开发的最大价值为285.62元/（户·a）.研究显示,选择试验法在受威胁物种保护及价值评估中具有良好的适用性,评估结果可为物种保护政策的制定提供科学依据.      

Future prediction & estimation of faults occurrences in oil pipelines by using data clustering with time series forecasting

The world of oil pipelines is subjected to serious issues due to occurrences of toxic spills, explosions and deformations like particle deposition, corrosions and cracks due to the contact of oil particles with the pipeline surface. Hence, the structural integrity of these pipelines is of great interest due to the probable environmental, infrastructural and financial losses in case of structural failure. Based on the existing technology, it is difficult to analyze the risks at the initial stage, since traditional methods are only appropriate for static accident analyses. Nevertheless, most of these models have used corrosion features alone to assess the condition of pipelines. To sort out the above problem in the oil pipelines, fault identification and prediction methods based on K-means clustering and Time-series forecasting incorporated with linear regression algorithm using multiple pressure data are proposed in this paper. The real-time validation of the proposed technique is validated using a scaled-down experimental hardware lab setup resembling characteristics exhibited by onshore unburied pipeline in India. In the proposed work, crack and blockages are identified by taking pressure rise and pressure drop inferred from two cluster assignment. The obtained numerical results from K-means clustering unveils that maximum datasets accumulated range of multiple pressures are within 16.147–10.638 kg/cm², 14.922–12.1674 kg/cm², 2.7645–1.2063 kg/cm² correspondingly. Hence by this final cluster center data, inspection engineers able to estimate the normal and abnormal performance of oil transportation in a simple-robust manner. The developed forecast model successfully predicts future fault occurrences rate followed by dissimilarity rate from clustering results holds the validity of 91.9% when applied to the historical pressure datasets. The models are expected to help pipeline operators without complex computation processing to assess and predict the condition of existing oil pipelines and hence prioritize the planning of their inspection and rehabilitation.     

The use of proactive risk management to reduce emergency service vehicle crashes among firefighters

IntroductionEmergency service vehicle crashes (ESVCs), including rollovers and collisions with other vehicles and fixed objects, are a leading cause of death among U.S. firefighters. Risk management (RM) is a proactive intervention to identifying and mitigating occupational risks and hazards. The goal of this study was to assess the effect of RM in reducing ESVCs. Methods: Three fire departments (A, B and C), representing urban and suburban geographies, and serving medium to large populations, participated in facilitated RM programs to reduce their ESVCs. Interventions were chosen by each department to address their department-specific circumstances and highest risks. Monthly crash rates per 10,000 calls were calculated for each department an average of 28 months before and 23 months after the start of the RM programs. Interrupted time series analysis was used to assess the effect of the RM programs on monthly crash rates. Poisson regression was used to estimate the number of crashes avoided. Economic data from Department A were analyzed to estimate cost savings. Results: Department A had a 15.4% (P = 0.30) reduction in the overall monthly crash rate immediately post-RM and a 1% (P = 0.18) decline per month thereafter. The estimated two-year average cost savings due to 167 crashes avoided was $253,100 (95%CI= $192,355 – $313,885). Department B had a 9.7% (P = 0.70) increase in the overall monthly crash rate immediately post-RM and showed no significant changes in their monthly crash rate. Department C had a 28.4% (P = 0.001) reduction in overall monthly crash rate immediately post-RM and a 1.2% (P = 0.09) increase per month thereafter, with an estimated 122 crashes avoided. Conclusions: RM programs have the potential to reduce ESVCs in the fire service and their associated costs; results may vary based on the interventions chosen and how they are implemented. Practical applications: Risk management may be an effective and broadly implemented intervention to reduce ESVCs in the US fire service.     

Time budgets and foraging in a Malagasy primate: do sex differences reflect reproductive condition and female dominance?

Female mammals commonly employ behavioral tactics of modulating activity levels and foraging behavior to counter the energetic burden of reproduction; these behavioral changes are reflected as intersexual differences. Traditional views of Malagasy primates posit that high reproductive costs select for female dominance which guarantees to energetically stressed females priority of resource access. I tested predictions regarding reproductive influences on sex differences in time budgets and foraging behavior using two groups of Milne-Edwards' sifaka (Propithecus diadema edwardsi) in southeastern Madagascar. Compared to males, females increased neither feeding nor resting time during gestation or lactation. Sex differences were essentially absent in all foraging time variables examined (time, duration, rate). In contrast, dietary composition diverged between the sexes in some months. The possibility that females selected particular food items to boost nutrient and energetic intake to meet increased requirements during reproduction must be further clarified with nutritional analyses. Sex differences in plant part choices coincided with lactation in one of the two study groups. Thus, the timing of sex differences in feeding patterns of P. d. edwardsi only partially supports the prediction that sex differences are most pronounced during the period of greatest female energetic demand. A comparative review indicated no tight association between female dominance and sex differences in foraging among Malagasy primates. Traditional female dominance theory falls short of explaining the observed patterns. The results of my study coupled with recent evidence suggest that non-behavioral tactics involving energy conservation and storage require further attention as mechanisms by which female lemurs cope with reproductive costs. Received: 12 June 1998 / Accepted after revision: 10 October 1998     

污染-经济时间弹性概念、方法与应用

环境污染随着经济发展的进程不断变化.为更加全面、准确地描述环境污染与经济发展的关系,本文将"弹性"分析方法应用于描述环境污染指标与经济发展指标之间的关系,提出"污染-经济时间弹性"概念,即一个国家或地区环境污染指标的年际变化率与相应的该国家或地区经济指标年际变化率的比值.文章进而分析了PETE的环境经济学含义及其计算方法.指标PETE能够用来描述一个国家或地区经济发展的清洁程度, 通常情况下, 较低的PETE值意味着较为清洁的增长方式, 而较高的PETE值则多与粗放和非清洁的增长方式相联系; 利用PETE还可以对空间(国家,地区)上和行业间的经济增长方式进行比较.文章最后通过1999-2008年中国环境污染指标(全社会主要污染物SO2、COD和烟尘排放量)数据和相应时间段的经济发展指标(GDP)数据, 计算中国全社会主要污染物排放与经济发展的"污染-经济时间弹性(PETE)", 发现该指标确能反映"经济发展的环境效率"的动态变化, 即为着获得一定的经济发展速度所付出环境代价之动态变化情状,验证了PETE概念和方法的科学性和实用性.PETE概念和方法的提出,为环境-经济分析提供了新的分析指标和工具.     

Decabromodiphenylether and hexabromocyclododecane in wild birds from the United Kingdom, Sweden and The Netherlands: Screening and time trends

The brominated flame retardant decabromodiphenylether (DBDE) was analysed in wild birds to identify the most suitable species for monitoring time trends in DBDE contamination. This information was later used for the design of a 10-year trend study on DBDE in the European Union. DBDE was measured in muscle tissue, liver, and eggs from 10 terrestrial and four aquatic bird species. DBDE was detected in 47% of the terrestrial bird samples (nine species) and in 9% of the aquatic bird samples (six species). Peregrine falcon and sparrowhawk specimens were selected as most suitable species to determine temporal trends of DBDE. For sparrowhawks, no significant change in DBDE concentrations between 1973 and 2001 was found, although in later years more DBDE concentrations were above the detection limit. Peak DBDE levels measured in peregrines in 1995, were followed by a decline in concentrations until 2001. The same species were used for a trend study on hexabromocylcododecane (HBCD). Twenty-four percent of peregrine falcon eggs and 12% of sparrowhawk muscle samples demonstrated measurable HBCD residues. Three diastereomers of HBCD were analysed and the α-diastereomer was the predominant one in most samples. No clear time trends were observed for HBCD in either species. This study demonstrated that these DBDE and HBCD are bioavailable to birds of Northern Europe, although bioaccumulation seems to occur to a limited extent.     

Heterogeneity of farmers' preferences towards agri-environmental schemes across different agricultural subsystems

Specialised literature on the uptake of agri-environmental schemes (AES) has paid little attention to how this can be influenced by the different types of agricultural systems. This paper analyses the heterogeneity of farmers' preferences towards these schemes, distinguishing between different subsystems within the same agricultural system. We use the choice experiment method to analyse the case study of three olive grove subsystems in southern Spain, with the subsystems ranging from extensive to intensive. The results reveal inter- and intra-subsystem heterogeneity of farmers' preferences towards AES, both in general and specifically related to scheme attributes. A variety of factors appear to lie behind inter-subsystem heterogeneity, especially those associated with subsystem specificities (principally, the type of joint production). Likewise, numerous factors play a role in intra-subsystem heterogeneity, most of them related to farm/farmer socio-economic and physical characteristics. These findings will help in the design of more efficient AES.     

Formaldehyde personal exposure measurements and time weighted exposure estimates in children

Residential concentrations of formaldehyde have been associated with poor respiratory health in children, where formaldehyde has been measured using stationary monitors inside homes. Although children spend most of their time indoors at home, there are few studies of children’s personal exposure to formaldehyde. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between personal exposure formaldehyde concentrations, microenvironmental concentrations and time weighted exposure estimates in children.Forty-one primary school children (aged between 9 and 12 years) wore a personal passive sampler over two 24 h periods in two seasons and completed 24 h daily activity diaries and a questionnaire about lifestyle and behaviour. Samplers were co located indoors at home, outdoors at centralised locations and indoors at school for the corresponding period.Personal exposure formaldehyde concentrations in this group of children were generally low with a geometric mean concentration of 9.1 ppb (range <detection limit to 27.3 ppb). There were strong correlations between personal exposure concentrations and both domestic indoor (r_s = .779, p < 0.001) and time weighted estimated (r_s = .802, p < 0.001) concentrations. The time weighted model did not improve the estimate of personal exposure compared with stationary indoor concentrations. Indoor air concentration measured with a single stationary monitor was a suitable surrogate for personal exposure.     

Prediction and cause investigation of ozone based on a double-stage attention mechanism recurrent neural network

● Used a double-stage attention mechanism model to predict ozone. ● The model can autonomously select the appropriate time series for forecasting. ● The model outperforms other machine learning models and WRF-CMAQ. ● We used the model to analyze the driving factors of VOCs that cause ozone pollution. Ozone is becoming a significant air pollutant in some regions, and VOCs are essential for ozone prediction as necessary ozone precursors. In this study, we proposed a recurrent neural network based on a double-stage attention mechanism model to predict ozone, selected an appropriate time series for prediction through the input attention and temporal attention mechanisms, and analyzed the cause of ozone generation according to the contribution of feature parameters. The experimental data show that our model had an RMSE of 7.71 μg/m³ and a mean absolute error of 5.97 μg/m³ for 1-h predictions. The DA-RNN model predicted ozone closer to observations than the other models. Based on the importance of the characteristics, we found that the ozone pollution in the Jinshan Industrial Zone mainly comes from the emissions of petrochemical enterprises, and the good generalization performance of the model is proved through testing multiple stations. Our experimental results demonstrate the validity and promising application of the DA-RNN model in predicting atmospheric pollutants and investigating their causes.     

社会选择理论在流域跨界水资源配置冲突决策问题中的应用

本文将社会选择理论引入到流域跨界水资源配置冲突的解决研究中,从群决策的角度寻找到流域内各区域一致同意的、满足水量分配公平的流域水资源配置方案。流域水资源配置冲突问题从表面上看是资源问题,实质上却是一个典型的决策问题。作为一种具有混合特性和稀缺性的自然资源,流域稀缺水资源的分配实质上是多主体参与的涉水利益分配,而分配的核心问题是如何通过合理的群决策机制协调水资源配置冲突中不同行政区域之间的利益关系进而实现公平。本文提出基于社会选择理论的流域跨界水资源配置冲突解决框架,首先从公平性角度将流域水资源配置冲突看成一个短缺资源的配置问题,利用P、AP、CEA和CEL四种破产准则获取可行的水量分配方案集合;其次运用社会选择理论中的PV、BC、HQ、PCM和FB五种偏好聚合方法进行流域内各行政区域个体偏好聚合的群决策分析;通过破产准则与偏好聚合的结合能够实现流域水资源配置冲突群决策结果的公平,所得流域水量分配方案易于被冲突主体所接受。最后,以华北缺水地区的漳河流域跨界水资源配置冲突问题为例进行研究,并比较不同破产准则及偏好聚合方法在解决流域跨界水资源配置冲突中的应用。研究结果表明,社会选择理论与破产准则的结合在解决流域跨界水资源配置冲突问题中具有较高的实用价值。