Combining FAP,MAP and correlation analysis for multivariate alarm thresholds optimization in industrial process

In the real industrial process, alarm threshold optimization is an important part of alarm system rationalization. If the design of alarm threshold is unreasonable, it would result in nuisance alarms, among which the critical alarms are overwhelmed. In order to alleviate this phenomenon, we propose a method of multivariate alarm thresholds optimization to reduce the nuisance alarms. Firstly, causal relationship between process variables is constructed based on the time delay estimation method, thus we can determine the alarms propagation path and then select the optimized variables. Secondly, in order to guarantee both the process safety and correlation consistency, three factors - false alarm probability (FAP), missed alarm probability (MAP), and the correlation between the alarm information and process information – are combined to establish the objective function of the optimization process for the first time. Then, the optimal thresholds are obtained by the genetic algorithm. Finally, the validity and effectiveness of the developed method are illustrated by the Tennessee Eastman process.     

成都入境旅游客源市场时空演变规律研究

入境旅游客源市场时空演变规律的研究是入境旅游市场研究的一个热点.依据成都市2000-2008年入境旅游市场的相关统计数据,通过分析亲景度和竞争态在时间和空间上的演变,揭示了成都入境旅游客源市场的时空演变规律.研究发现,泰国是成都最重要的入境客源市场,但自从2004年以来亲蓉度有所下降.面对入境客源市场空间分布比较均匀的状况,市场关注的重点应放在市场竞争态有所衰退的市场,以确保整体市场的稳步攀升.     

Modelling visitor groups' intentions to displace from an urban trail: a combined stated preference and video monitoring approach

Depending on gender and activity, overcrowding and safety concerns may detract from urban green space use. Differences in use displacement intentions from a recreational trail in a forest in Vienna were investigated for male and female walkers as well as male and female dog-walkers (N = 425) using an image-based stated preference model. The trail scenarios were depicted as digitally calibrated images that systematically displayed combinations of levels of crowding with different mixes of user types and visitor behaviour. Visitors were asked whether the presented recreation scenario was so unacceptable that they would shift their use away from the presented trail. Hours and days of stated non-use of the recreation trail by various user groups are estimated by integrating the results of the behavioural model with annual visitation data. Use displacement intentions differed by gender and activity. High use levels were a greater concern for all respondents than very low use levels, particularly for female dog-walkers. However, only a small proportion of the recorded hours were heavily used. Safety concerns about very low use levels reduced the potential times of forest use for female walkers without a dog.     

自回归模型在井水埋深预测中的应用及改进

用时间序列分析方法建立井水埋深的预测模型时,首先采用差分的方法把季节性时间序列变成平稳时间序列,在此基础上,再用动态数据系统方法的传统F检验定阶法进行分析。由于样本的随机性可能过早地退出对模型的循环检验,从而不能找到合适的预测模型。笔者在用自回归模型建立井水预测模型的基础上,采用了一种改进的建模方法,提高了预测精度,并用实例进行了验证。     

Influence of daytime running lamps on visual reaction time of pedestrians when detecting turn indicators

Introduction

This article describes one experiment that studied the influence of Daytime Running Lamps (DRL) on pedestrian detection of turn indicators.

Method

An experimental device including one DRL and one turn indicator was used in order to determine Visual Reaction Times (VRT) of 148 observers in different situations involving turn indicator activation. Such situations were combinations of three main variables: color of DRL, separation between DRL and Turn Indicator, and observation angle.

Results

Significant changes in VRT were found depending on the configurations above, especially the observation angle and the color of DRL. This second result demonstrates that amber DRLs inhibit the detection of Turn Indicators.

Impact on industry

One of the main targets of this paper is to recommend that carmakers introduce only white DRLs on new vehicles. We also intend to advise regulatory bodies working on automotive regulation about the consequences of allowing amber DRLs and also about the danger of introducing constrains on the distance between DRL and Turn Indicator without further experimental evidences.     

木粉尘职业接触极限值的研究

木头作为原材料得到广泛应用 ,但硬木粉尘 (如橡木和山毛榉粉尘 )可导致人患鼻癌。不同国家的木粉尘的职业接触极限值 (或极限值 )却不尽相同。虽然关于木粉尘的极限值的国际讨论持续已久 ,但仍缺乏更好支持其极限值推导的健康相关数据。为保护木材加工工人的身体健康以及给木粉尘的职业接触极限值的制定机构提供可靠数据和科学决策方面的建议 ,笔者针对怎样为木粉尘 ,特别是致癌木粉尘制定一个合理极限值的问题 ,在“比较”和“设定”两方面对国际范围内的木粉尘的极限值进行了研究 ,其结果表明 ,大部分国家给予软木粉尘和硬木粉尘的极限值分别为 5mg/m3 和 1mg/m3 ;提出利用剂量 -影响 -关系和“线性多阶段”方法也可以给致癌硬木粉尘建立一个健康基础极限值或者一个可接受极限值 ,其极限值应该不仅根据木材类型而且还需根据工作岗位而分别综合设定。     

Source profiles of particulate organic matters emitted from cereal straw burnings

Cereal straw is one of the most abundant biomass burned in China but its contribution to fine particulates is not adequately understood. In this study, three main kinds of cereal straws were collected from five grain producing areas in China. Fine particulate matters （PMzs） from the cereal straws subjected to control burnings, both under smoldering and flaming status, were sampled by using a custom made dilution chamber and sampling system in the laboratory. Element carbon （EC） and organic carbon （OC） was analyzed. 141 compounds of organic matters were measured by gas chromatography-mass spectrum （GC-MS）. Source profiles of particulate organic matters emitted from cereal straw burnings were obtained. The results indicated that organic matters contribute a large fraction in fine particulate matters. Levoglucosan had the highest contributions with averagely 4.5% in mass of fine particulates and can be considered as the tracer of biomass burnings. Methyloxylated phenols from lignin degradation also had high concentrations in PM2.5, and contained approximately equal amounts of guaiacyl and syringyl compounds. 13-Sitostrol also made up relatively a large fraction of PMz5 compared with the other sterols （0.18%-0.63% of the total fine particle mass）. Normal alkanes, PAHs, fatty acids, as well as normal alkanols had relatively lower concentrations compared with the compounds mentioned above. Carbon preference index （CPI） of normal alkanes and alkanoic acids showed characteristics of biogenic fuel burnings. Burning status significantly influenced the formations of EC and PAHs. The differences between the emission profiles of straw and wood combustions were displayed by the fingerprint compounds, which may be used to identify the contributions between wood and straw burnings in source apportionment researches.     

Heterogeneity of farmers' preferences towards agri-environmental schemes across different agricultural subsystems

Specialised literature on the uptake of agri-environmental schemes (AES) has paid little attention to how this can be influenced by the different types of agricultural systems. This paper analyses the heterogeneity of farmers' preferences towards these schemes, distinguishing between different subsystems within the same agricultural system. We use the choice experiment method to analyse the case study of three olive grove subsystems in southern Spain, with the subsystems ranging from extensive to intensive. The results reveal inter- and intra-subsystem heterogeneity of farmers' preferences towards AES, both in general and specifically related to scheme attributes. A variety of factors appear to lie behind inter-subsystem heterogeneity, especially those associated with subsystem specificities (principally, the type of joint production). Likewise, numerous factors play a role in intra-subsystem heterogeneity, most of them related to farm/farmer socio-economic and physical characteristics. These findings will help in the design of more efficient AES.     

The desirability of views of city skylines after dark

Three studies used digital color photographs to compare responses to natural scenes, skylines after dark, and skylines during the day (seven of each). Study 1 had 59 respondents rate the pleasantness of each scene. They gave similar ratings to Night Skylines and Natural Scenes, and rated each as more pleasant than the Day Skylines. Study 2 had 56 other participants choose from each of seven sets of each kind of scene the one they would most like to have as a framed print in their home or office, and to report the reasons. Participants chose Night Skylines most often, followed by Natural Scenes and then Day Skylines. While participants most often picked attractive as a reason for their choice, those who chose Night Skylines also picked exciting as the reason, and those who picked Natural Scenes also picked relaxing or peaceful as a reason. Study 3 obtained ratings of selected formal features of each scene. The 23 judges rated the Natural scenes as more natural, orderly, open, and curvilinear, less complex, and as having smoother transitions than either Day or Night Skylines; and they judged the Night Skylines as higher in complexity but lower in order than Day Skylines. The results suggest that preferences in relation to the scene categories may well depend on a mix of their formal characteristics and their content.     

Effects of preference heterogeneity among landowners on spatial conservation prioritization

The participation of private landowners in conservation is crucial to efficient biodiversity conservation. This is especially the case in settings where the share of private ownership is large and the economic costs associated with land acquisition are high. We used probit regression analysis and historical participation data to examine the likelihood of participation of Danish forest owners in a voluntary conservation program. We used the results to spatially predict the likelihood of participation of all forest owners in Denmark. We merged spatial data on the presence of forest, cadastral information on participation contracts, and individual‐level socioeconomic information about the forest owners and their households. We included predicted participation in a probability model for species survival. Uninformed and informed (included land owner characteristics) models were then incorporated into a spatial prioritization for conservation of unmanaged forests. The choice models are based on sociodemographic data on the entire population of Danish forest owners and historical data on their participation in conservation schemes. Inclusion in the model of information on private landowners’ willingness to supply land for conservation yielded at intermediate budget levels up to 30% more expected species coverage than the uninformed prioritization scheme. Our landowner‐choice model provides an example of moving toward more implementable conservation planning.