Effect on fatality risk of changing from secondary to primary seat belt enforcement

BACKGROUND: Most seat belt use laws originally passed in the United States contained language restricting enforcement to drivers already stopped for some other reason. States that have since removed this secondary enforcement restriction have reported increased seat belt use. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the effect of these law changes on driver fatality rates. METHOD: Trends in passenger vehicle driver death rates per billion miles traveled were compared for 10 states that changed from secondary to primary seat belt enforcement and 14 states that remained with secondary enforcement. RESULTS: After accounting for possible economic effects and other general time trends, the change from secondary to primary enforcement was found to reduce annual passenger vehicle driver death rates by an estimated 7% (95% confidence limits 3.0-10.9). CONCLUSION: The majority of U.S. states still have secondary enforcement laws. If these remaining secondary laws were amended, an estimated 696 deaths per year could be prevented.     

管制员安全能力模型研究

为准确评价管制员安全能力,基于能力的定义和管制员工作职责,界定管制员安全能力的内涵;依据该内涵及其工作特性,建立由身体素质、业务素质和意识3个结构维度组成的管制员安全能力模型。其中,身体素质包括生理状况和心理状况;业务素质包括教育状况、培训状况、技能状况和经验状况;意识包括安全意识和工作意识。在各项指标性质差异较大情况下,利用功效系数法实现评价指标的标准化以减小误差,客观反映指标情况,同时采用G1-法和熵值法集成的主客观综合赋权法确定指标的权重,在一定程度上弥补主客观单一赋权的不足,最后通过逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)评价管制员安全能力。结果表明,按照从大到小排序对管制员安全能力的影响因素依次为意识、身体素质和业务素质。就对所论能力的影响而言,心理状况强于生理状况;技能状况强教育、培训和经验状况;安全意识对意识的影响大于工作意识。     

基于尺寸效应的采空区危险度RS-TOPSIS法辨识

为准确预测地下采空区危险性,选用采空区结构的跨度、暴露面积、高度、埋深、矿柱尺寸布置等5个采空区危险度结构尺寸影响因素作为评价指标,建立采空区危险度粗糙集-逼近理想解排序法(RS-TOPSIS)综合评价体系。基于粗糙集理论(RS)中的粗糙依赖度,通过计算评价指标与评价等级间的粗糙依赖度得到指标权重。以40个采空区探测系统(CMS)实测采空区作为评价对象,根据单指标分类区间下限构造5个不同等级的典型采空区,结合逼近理想解的排序法(TOPSIS),实现采空区危险度5级贴近度的分类,并辨识实测采空区危险度。研究结果表明,用为采空区群矿山建立的采空区危险度基于结构尺寸效应的RS-TOPSIS法,能够实现危险度5级分类辨识,辨识结果与采空区危险度数值分析结果吻合度为92.5%。     

基于模糊数学的石油化工装置HAZOP风险分析技术研究

对传统的HAZOP分析中偏差原因发生可能性进行量化。对于有统计数据的,根据行业数据、公司经验及企业事故建立HAZOP风险分析统计数据库;对于没有统计数据的HAZOP分析偏差原因发生概率,通过专家主观评判,用模糊数理论将专家自然语言转换为模糊数,采用左右模糊排序法将模糊数转换为模糊失效概率值。研究了偏差后果严重程度的划分标准,并根据偏差原因概率和偏差后果严重程度确定风险等级,利用风险矩阵得出偏差风险的大小。从而把HAZOP分析方法从定性改进为半定量的分析方法。据此对石油化工装置进行了HAZOP风险分析。     

基于GPR-TOPSIS方法的充填配比多目标多属性优化

为获得某金矿尾砂胶结充填材料最优配比,基于试验结果,以海水比例、灰砂比和料浆质量浓度为输入参数,以充填体强度、塌落度及泌水率为输出参数,建立了充填配比与其响应量的高斯过程回归模型,分析了不同因素对充填性能的影响程度;采用遗传算法对高斯过程回归模型进行多目标参数优化,获得了Pareto非劣解,在此基础上,引入多属性决策的TOPSIS法对Pareto非劣解进行方案优选,确定了充填最优配比。研究结果表明:高斯过程回归模型相对误差值均小于6%,可靠性高;灰砂比及料浆质量浓度对充填性能影响较为显著,采用海水作为充填水源将降低充填体的强度;经优化后的充填配比与试验结果相符。     

Foraging in the seed-harvester ant genus Pogonomyrmex: are energy costs important?

Energy intake and expenditure on natural foraging trips were estimated for the seed-harvester ants, Pogonomyrmex maricopa and P. rugosus. During seed collection, P. maricopa foraged individually, whereas P. rugosus employed a trunk-trail foraging system. Energy gain per trip and per minute were not significantly different between species. There was also no interspecific difference in energy cost per trip, but energy cost per minute was lower for P. maricopa foragers because they spent on average 7 min longer searching for a load on each trip. Including both unsuccessful and successful foraging trips, average energy gain per trip was more than 100 times the energy cost per trip for both species. Based on this result, we suggest that time cost incurred during individual foraging trips is much more important than energy cost in terms of maximizing net resource intake over time. In addition, because energy costs are so small relative to gains, we propose that energy costs associated with foraging may be safely ignored in future tests of foraging theory with seed-harvesting ant species.     

Kernel-based home range method for data with irregular sampling intervals

Studies of habitat selection and movements often use radio-tracking data for defining animal home ranges. Home ranges (HR) can be approximated by a utilization density distribution (UD) that instead of assuming uniform use of areas within HR boundary provides a probabilistic measure of animal space use. In reality, radio-tracking data contain periods of frequent autocorrelated observations interspersed with temporally more independent observations. Using such temporally irregular data directly may result in biased UD estimates, because areas that have been sampled intensively receive too much weight. The problem of autocorrelation has been tackled by resampling data with an appropriate time interval. However, resampling may cause a large reduction in the data set size along with a loss of information. Evidently, biased UD estimates or reduction in data may prejudice the results on animal habitat selection and movement. We introduce a new method for estimating UDs with temporally irregular data. The proposed method, called the time kernel, accounts for temporal aggregation of observations and gives less weight to temporally autocorrelated observations. A further extension of the method accounts also for spatially aggregated observations with relatively low weights given to observations that are both temporally and spatially aggregated. We test the behaviour of the time kernel method and its spatiotemporal version using simulated data. In addition, the method is applied to a data set of brown bear locations.     

历史时期黄河下游河道演变规律与淮河灾害治理

历史时期黄河下游河道演变规律表明,河流从沿程淤积到河口延伸、再到溯源淤积的自适应过程,在1000a、100a、50a、10a等各种时间尺度上均可能发生,这对淮河水系改造的可行性论证、方案设计等有重要指导意义。     

Accounting for time in Mitigating Global Warming through land-use change and forestry

Many proposed activities formitigating global warming in the land-use change and forestry(LUCF) sector differ from measures to avoid fossilfuel emissions because carbon (C) may be held out ofthe atmosphere only temporarily. In addition, thetiming of the effects is usually different. Many LUCFactivities alter C fluxes to and from the atmosphereseveral decades into the future, whereas fossil fuelemissions avoidance has immediate effects. Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are animportant part of emissions from deforestation inlow-latitude regions, also pose complications forcomparisons between fossil fuel and LUCF, since themechanism generally used to compare these gases(global warming potentials) assumes simultaneousemissions. A common numeraire is needed to expressglobal warming mitigation benefits of different kindsof projects, such as fossil fuel emissions reduction,C sequestration in forest plantations, avoideddeforestation by creating protected areas and throughpolicy changes to slow rates of land-use changes suchas clearing. Megagram (Mg)-year (also known as`ton-year') accounting provides a mechanism forexpressing the benefits of activities such as these ona consistent basis. One can calculate the atmosphericload of each GHG that will be present in each year,expressed as C in the form of CO₂ and itsinstantaneous impact equivalent contributed by othergases. The atmospheric load of CO₂-equivalent Cpresent over a time horizon is a possible indicator ofthe climatic impact of the emission that placed thisload in the atmosphere. Conversely, this index alsoprovides a measure of the benefit of notproducing the emission. One accounting methodcompares sequestered CO₂ in trees with theCO₂ that would be in the atmosphere had thesequestration project not been undertaken, whileanother method (used in this paper) compares theatmospheric load of C (or equivalent in non-CO₂GHGs) in both project and no-project scenarios.Time preference, expressed by means of a discount rateon C, can be applied to Mg-year equivalencecalculations to allow societal decisions regarding thevalue of time to be integrated into the system forcalculating global warming impacts and benefits. Giving a high value to time, either by raising thediscount rate or by shortening the time horizon,increases the value attributed to temporarysequestration (such as many forest plantationprojects). A high value for time also favorsmitigation measures that have rapid effects (such asslowing deforestation rates) as compared to measuresthat only affect emissions years in the future (suchas creating protected areas in countries with largeareas of remaining forest). Decisions on temporalissues will guide mitigation efforts towards optionsthat may or may not be desirable on the basis ofsocial and environmental effects in spheres other thanglobal warming. How sustainable development criteriaare incorporated into the approval and creditingsystems for activities under the Kyoto Protocol willdetermine the overall environmental and social impactsof pending decisions on temporal issues.     

Examination of dioxin fluxes recorded in dated aquatic-sediment cores in the Kanto region of Japan using multivariate data analysis

Past dioxin (coplanar polychlorinated biphenyl (Co-PCB), 2,3,7,8-substituted polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin (PCDD) and 2,3,7,8-substituted polychlorinated dibenzofuran (PCDF)) fluxes recorded in dated aquatic-sediment cores were analyzed using principal component analysis (PCA). The data set consisted of samples from four cores collected from the Kanto region of Japan. Time trends and spatial differences in the dioxin flux were examined, and the potential relationship to emission sources was investigated. Twenty-five compounds and 58 core slices, corresponding to the later half of the 20th century, were subjected to the analysis. The PCA of both log-transformed and maximum-value-standardized data successfully divided the dioxin compounds into a small number of groups, and three similar clusters of Co-PCBs, PCDDs and penta- to hepta-CDFs were identified. PCB formulations used in the past are judged to have been responsible for the major part of the Co-PCB flux recorded in the sediment cores. However, the relationship to emission sources needs further investigation. It is suggested that most 2,3,7,8-substituted PCDDs and PCDFs are different from Co-PCBs in their emission sources or movements in the environment. The subcore clusters obtained from the PCA of log-transformed data show that the cores from different sampling areas exhibited distinct dioxin fluxes and compositions. Common time trends among the cores were more effectively summarized by the PCA of maximum-value-standardized data focusing on relative time trends. PC scores show that recently the flux of each dioxin compound in the four cores has been generally declining after having reached a peak.