蠕变－样条联合模型及其在滑坡时间预报中的应用

根据滑坡演化的一般规律并考虑到外动力因素对斜坡变形破坏的影响，提出了一种蠕变与样条的联合模型。通过新滩滑坡和链子崖危岩体的实例分析，采用蠕变－样条联合模型进行滑坡位移数据分析和临滑时间预报。初步研究表明，联合模型与其它模型相比具有使用方便和精度高等优点     

一种新的时间序列预报方法及其应用

本文叙述了作者提出的时间序列预报方法的基本原理,介绍了这一方法在应用过程中的发展及在实际部门应用的情况,其中包括异常旱涝灾害预报及方法的改进等最新成果。     

气溶胶中正构烷烃的碳优先指数研究

本文研究了北京、广州两地不同季节气溶胶颗粒物上正构烷烃的碳优先指数值(CPI)随季节和颗粒物粒径的变化规律。结果表明,北京地区气溶胶中正构烷烃的CPI值:春>夏>秋>冬;广州地区为冬>春>夏,显示了不同的地区特征,而且随着气溶胶颗粒物粒径的减小,正构烷烃的CPI值亦减小。     

Female mate choice in the zebra finch — the effect of male beak colour and male song

Studies of female mate preference in zebra finches (Taenopygia guttata) have shown that male beak colour and song rate are important. However, the two characters are correlated. Here the effect of beak colour and song rate on female choice are examined independently. In mate choice tests involving two males, beak colour was manipulated artificially using nail varnish. The results showed that females showed a significant preference for males with a high song rate, but not with a red beak. Females did not prefer males with a red beak if song rate was low and females preferred males with orange beaks who expressed a high song rate. Female preference for males with red beaks was not found when beak and song characters were no longer correlated.     

Experimental verification for real-time environmental emergency response system: WSPEEDI by European tracer experiment

Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute has developed an emergency response system WSPEEDI to forecast long-range atmospheric dispersions of radionuclides discharged into the atmosphere. The latest version of WSPEEDI consists of an atmospheric dynamic model MM5 for calculating meteorological fields and a particle random-walk model for atmospheric dispersion. The performance of WSPEEDI was evaluated by data obtained from a field tracer experiment over Europe (ETEX) in this paper. The model validation was done with respect to the following points: (1) the dependence of model accuracy on the temporal and spatial resolutions of the meteorological fields and (2) the superiority of an atmospheric dynamic model over a mass-consistent wind model. Regarding (1), it was shown that the calculation accuracy of the new version with high temporal resolution was improved, especially at the edge of the plume. Moreover, although the increase in horizontal spatial resolution of the old version had no substantial effect on the model performance, increase in horizontal resolution of the new version contributed to the significant improvement of the calculation accuracy. These results showed that the dynamically calculated meteorological field with the spatial resolution of the meso-β–γ scale greatly improved calculation accuracy.     

Time as a constraint on group size in spider monkeys

An animal can only survive in a given habitat if it has enough time to find, process and digest food whilst avoiding predation. The time it has for food acquisition is affected by the vegetation and competition with conspecifics, which depends on aggregation tendencies. We used the relationships between time allocations, on the one hand, and climatic variables (as a proxy for habitat quality) and group size, on the other, to develop a model that predicts maximum ecologically tolerable group size at different locations for spider monkeys. Spider monkeys are particularly interesting because the social communities often split up into small units. Temperature variation and rainfall variation were the main determinants of time budgets. Community size and average annual rainfall determined party size. The model correctly predicted presence or absence of spider monkeys at 78–83% of 217 New World forest sites. Within the geographical range of the species, this time budget model predicted the presence of spider monkeys better than a model based directly on climate variables. Predicted community and party sizes were significantly larger at sites where spider monkeys are present than at sites where they are absent. As required by the model, predicted maximum community sizes were significantly larger than observed community sizes. Moving time showed a U-shaped relationship with party size, which suggests that moving time is the factor that keeps spider monkey communities from travelling together in a tight group.     

An experimental examination of female preference patterns for components of the male advertisement call in the quacking frog,<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Crinia georgiana</Emphasis>

Even though females prefer particular components of a male display, their preferences may not be expressed during mate choice. Here, we quantified female preference patterns in the frog Crinia georgiana for call rate, pulse number and dominant frequency using two-speaker trials. Females typically chose signals emitted at a higher rate, with more pulses (when variation was extreme) and with an average dominant frequency. The results for pulse number and call rate agree with a previous field study which found that these two call components explained significant variation in male mating success. In contrast, the strong preferences for average dominant frequencies detected here disagree with the previous field study which failed to find any relationship between dominant frequency and male mating success. To explain the discrepancy we investigated whether the patterns of female preference for dominant frequency changed when another property, call rate, was varied simultaneously. Most females chose the call with an average dominant frequency when offered a choice between a call with an average dominant frequency and call rate or a non-average dominant frequency (±2 SD) and high call rate. When the differences in dominant frequency were reduced (±1 SD), females showed no clear preference for either signal. Accordingly, female preference patterns for one call component can vary with the expression of another. These results do not explain why dominant frequency did not account for any variation in male mating success under field conditions.Communicated by T. Beschlitz     

Effects of body mass,age, dominance and parasite load on foraging time of bighorn rams,<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Ovis canadensis</Emphasis>

In sexually dimorphic ungulates, males generally spend less time foraging than females, possibly because of difference in body mass or because of the energetic requirements of lactation. The relationship between body size and foraging time has received little attention at the intra-specific level, because few studies have documented activity budgets for individuals of known size. Bighorn rams are a good model to explore how body mass affects foraging time, because they range in mass from 55 to 140 kg. We examined how the foraging time of bighorn rams varied according to individual characteristics. We observed rams in a marked population and constructed time budgets during the 3 months preceding the rut. We determined ram social rank based on agonistic encounters and collected fecal samples to count lungworm larvae. Time spent foraging was negatively correlated with body mass. After accounting for age differences, larger rams spent less time foraging and more time lying than smaller rams. Among rams aged 6–12 years, dominants spent less time feeding than subordinates, while fecal output of lungworm larvae was negatively correlated with foraging time for rams of all ages. Body mass accounts for much of the individual variation in foraging time, suggesting that sexual dimorphism is important in explaining differences in feeding time between males and females.Communicated by P. Heeb     

Farmers’ risk preference and the adoption of risk management strategies in Northern Ghana

The study used the hypothetical lottery-choice questions to measure risk aversion and a detailed survey collected data on input use, farm production and non-farm activities to specifically assess whether risk aversion, risk perceptions, and socioeconomic factors affect the risk management strategies of farm households in Northern Ghana. Risk aversion significantly increases crop diversification strategies of households but marginally reduces herbicide use by households. Market risk significantly increases the use of improved seed varieties and the application of inorganic fertiliser but reduces diversification into livestock production. Production risk largely increases diversification into livestock production. Farmers’ risk management strategies are affected by socioeconomic variables such as access to extension services, area cultivated, age and gender. Policy effort focused on building pliable on-farm crop related risk management strategies should aim at considering the risk aversion and the perception of market risk whilst those focused on livestock should focus on production risk.     

基于区间直觉模糊信息TODM法的水利工程应急决策研究

为更合理地进行应急方案比选,减少不确定因素和决策者偏好对决策结果的影响,构造了1种更加适应水利工程应急决策的模型。针对应急决策环境的模糊性和不确定性,引入区间直觉模糊集表达评价信息,采用区间直觉模糊熵计算各指标权重;通过构造备选方案两两比较矩阵,运用区间直觉模糊距离测度公式计算方案间的损益值;结合TODIM法计算各方案相对占优度并进行比较排序,确定最优方案。研究结果表明:在损失规避系数确定的前提下,选择任一区间直觉模糊距离公式都不影响方案的优劣排序,决策模型具有一定的可靠性和稳定性。