Speed choice versus celeration behavior as traffic accident predictor

INTRODUCTION: The driver celeration behavior theory predicts that this variable is superior to all other variables as a predictor of individual traffic accident involvement, including the ever-important speed parameter. The study was undertaken to test this prediction. Also, it was expected that most variables would associate fairly strongly. METHOD: The use of speed choice as a predictor of individual traffic accident record was discussed, and four different variants of this variable (maximum, net mean, gross mean, and standard deviation of speed) identified. These variables were then compared to celeration behavior as predictors of accident record of bus drivers in the same set of data. RESULTS: Celeration behavior was found to be slightly superior, in accordance with the prediction made from the driver celeration behavior theory, although the differences were not significant. Furthermore, the predictor variables were found to associate fairly strongly between themselves, with the exception of gross mean speed, and to have fair stability over time, especially when aggregated. CONCLUSIONS: These results tentatively confirm some of the predictions made from the driver celeration behavior theory. As the results for accidents were in the expected direction, but not significant, and the maximum speed variable may have suffered from a ceiling effect, the conclusion is provisional. Impact on industry: The correlations found were strong enough to warrant the use of celeration behavior as a predictive variable for transportation companies in their safety work.     

Effectiveness of traffic management in Salt Lake City, Utah

PROBLEM: The effectiveness of speed humps, 14 ft (4.3 m) wide by 3.5 in (8.9 cm) high, and tables, 22 ft (6.7 m) wide, on 12 streets in Salt Lake City, Utah was investigated. Mean and 85th percentile spot speeds, speed limit compliance, motor-vehicle crashes, and resident opinions were considered. METHOD: Spot speeds were collected at 18 "between-hump" locations. Motor-vehicle crash data were obtained for "before" and "after" periods of equal duration. A total of 436 residents were surveyed; 184 responded. RESULTS: The mean and 85th percentile speeds decreased at 14 and 15 locations, respectively. The average reduction in the 85th percentile speed (3.4 mph or 5.4 km/h) was significant in flat and rolling terrain, but not on uphill or downhill segments. The number of sites with 50% speed limit compliance increased from 4 to 12. The number of motor-vehicle crashes decreased from 10 to 9; the change was not significant, but injury crashes decreased from five to one. Regarding the residents, 30% were positive, 25% were negative, and 45% offered suggestions, some of which were conflicting. DISCUSSION: Further study is needed on speed hump spacing and speed tables in hilly terrain. Example results should be shared with residents to inform their decision-making. SUMMARY: At least 78% of the sites experienced a decrease in the mean or 85th percentile speed, or an increase in speed limit compliance. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: These findings should be useful to agencies that are planning or implementing traffic calming projects, and to analysts.     

Connecticut nighttime safety belt use

Problem

Safety belt use in the United States, as measured over daylight hours, has risen steadily over recent years reaching 80% in 2004. Yet, using the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), safety belt use among fatally injured front seat outboard occupants of passenger vehicles was only between 42% and 46% for the years 1999 to 2003. One possible contributing factor is that safety belt use at night, when crash rates are highest, is lower than during the day.

Method

A full statewide nighttime belt use observation survey was conducted in 2004. This survey was conducted simultaneously with Connecticut's annual full statewide daytime belt use survey. Night belt use observations of drivers and passengers are possible using newly available near military grade night vision goggles and handheld infrared spotlights. Both day and goggle-assisted night observations were conducted at 100 observation sites in Connecticut. Procedures for day and night observations were as nearly identical as possible.

Results

The night belt use rate was 6.4 percentage points lower than the day rate (83.0 vs. 76.6). Consistent with belt use among Connecticut fatalities, day versus night differences were greatest in urban areas. There was evidence that day versus night differences were greater before as compared to after a May 2004 belt use enforcement program.     

The role of sales of new motorcycles in a recent increase in motorcycle mortality rates

INTRODUCTION: The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has reported that mortality rates from crashes among motorcycle riders in the United States increased from 21.0 per 100 million motorcycle miles traveled in 1997 to 38.4 per 100 million motorcycle miles traveled in 2003. At the same time, annual domestic sales of new, on-road motorcycles increased from 247,000 in 1997 to 648,000 in 2003. METHOD: This study used data from the NHTSA Fatality Analysis Reporting System and annual sales figures for on-road motorcycles to determine if newer motorcycles were more likely to be involved in fatal crashes and if fatal crashes involving newer motorcycles could account for the mortality increase after 1997. RESULTS: Mortality rates were 7.9, 8.1, 5.4, and 2.9 per 10,000 motorcycles sold for motorcycles <1, 1-3, 4-6, and 7-11 years old, respectively, from 1994 to 2003. Assuming complete registration, the number of motorcycles sold during the 2000-2003 time period accounted for 42.4% of the total number of motorcycles registered in 2003. Motorcycles sold during 2000-2003 were associated with 52.5% of all motorcycle deaths in 2003. The increase in the number of deaths associated with motorcycles less than four years old between 1997 and 2003 accounted for 78.1% of the total increase in motorcyclist deaths over this time period. CONCLUSIONS: Two possible explanations for the association between high sales volumes and mortality rates are: (a) increased exposure from more extensive use of motorcycles when they are new; and (b) inexperience with motorcycle riding or with specific motorcycles. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This study suggests that the deaths of growing numbers of motorcyclists are a consequence of the financial success of the motorcycle industry.     

交通荷载作用下饱和软基的模型试验及变形分析

采用自行研制的油压式循环加载系统室内模拟交通荷载的作用 ,对饱和软粘土地基的变形性状进行了大比尺的室内模型试验 ;考虑了饱和软基的固结状态、循环应力比的大小对竖向永久变形的影响 ;得出了饱和软粘土地基的临界循环应力比和竖向永久变形及孔隙水压力随加荷周数和固结状态的变化规律 ;模型试验及变形分析研究 ,对交通荷载下饱和软基的工后沉降计算具有重要参考价值。     

Evaluating the impact of passengers on the safety of older drivers

PROBLEM: This study involved a quasi-induced exposure analysis of 4 years of crashes involving older drivers in the state of Kentucky. METHOD: Single- and multivehicle crashes were disaggregated according to the number of passengers: (a) no passenger, (b) one passenger, and (c) two or more passengers. RESULTS: Overall, the presence of two or more passengers was found to negatively impact the probability that drivers 75 years of age or older were at fault in crashes. Several potential factors were studied for interactive effects with passengers: vehicle occupant gender mix, time of the day, road curvature, grade, and number of lanes. The negative impact of passengers increased for some geometric road conditions. However, older drivers were found to be safer at night when carrying two or more passengers. The presence or absence of passengers was not found to affect the 65- to 74-year-old driver group. Groups of male vehicle occupants with a 75+ male driver were found to have high single-vehicle crash rates. IMPACT: These results are among the first to directly consider the effect of passengers on the crash-causing propensity of older drivers and the findings suggest more work is warranted to consider causes for the crash rate differences.     

推进绿色交通体系建设的对策建议

论述了我国交通体系建设现状,剖析了我国交通体系建设过程现存的环境污染问题,从选址选线期的"事先绕避"、工程施工期的"事中防护"、工程运行期的"事后监管"3个方面提出了建设绿色交通体系的建议。     

Urban air quality, meteorology and traffic linkages: Evidence from a sixteen-day particulate matter pollution event in December 2015, Beijing

A heavy 16-day pollution episode occurred in Beijing from December 19, 2015 to January 3,2016. The mean daily AQI and PM_(2.5) were 240.44 and 203.6 μg/m~3. We analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of air pollutants, meteorology and road space speed during this period, then extended to reveal the combined effects of traffic restrictions and meteorology on urban air quality with observational data and a multivariate mutual information model. Results of spatiotemporal analysis showed that five pollution stages were identified with remarkable variation patterns based on evolution of PM_(2.5) concentration and weather conditions. Southern sites(DX, YDM and DS) experienced heavier pollution than northern ones(DL, CP and WL). Stage P2 exhibited combined functions of meteorology and traffic restrictions which were delayed peak-clipping effects on PM_(2.5).Mutual information values of Air quality–Traffic–Meteorology(ATM–MI) revealed that additive functions of traffic restrictions, suitable relative humidity and temperature were more effective on the removal of fine particles and CO than NO_2.     

Crash data analysis: collective vs. individual crash level approach

INTRODUCTION: Traffic safety literature has traditionally focused on identification of location profiles where "more crashes are likely to occur" over a period of time. The analysis involves estimation of crash frequency and/or rate (i.e., frequency normalized based on some measure of exposure) with geometric design features (e.g., number of lanes) and traffic characteristics (e.g., Average Annual Daily Traffic [AADT]) of the roadway location. In the recent past, a new category of traffic safety studies has emerged, which attempts to identify locations where a "crash is more likely to occur." The distinction between the two groups of studies is that the latter group of locations would change based on the varying traffic patterns over the course of the day or even within the hour. METHOD: Hence, instead of estimation of crash frequency over a period of time, the objective becomes real-time estimation of crash likelihood. The estimation of real-time crash likelihood has a traffic management component as well. It is a proactive extension to the traditional approach of incident detection, which involves analysis of traffic data recorded immediately after the incident. The units of analysis used in these studies are individual crashes rather than counts of crashes. RESULTS: In this paper, crash data analysis based on the two approaches, collective and at individual crash level, is discussed along with the advantages and shortcomings of the two approaches.