A pioneer validation of a state-space model of vessel trajectories (VMS) with observers’ data

In the context of the expansion of animal tracking and bio-logging, state-space models have been developed with the objective to characterise animals’ trajectories and to understand the factors controlling their behaviour. In the fisheries community, the electronic tagging of vessels commonly designated by Vessel Monitoring Systems (VMS) is developing and provides a new insight for the understanding, the analysis and the modelling of the trajectories of vessels and their prospecting behaviour. VMS data are thus a clue for the proper definition of fishing effort which remains a fundamental parameter of tuna stock assessments. In this context, we used the VMS (recording of hourly positions) of the French tropical tuna purse-seiners operating in the Indian Ocean to characterise three types of movement (states) on the VMS trajectories (stillness, tracking, and cruising). Based on empirical evidences, and on the regular frequency of VMS acquisition, this was achieved by the development of a Bayesian Hidden Markov model for the speeds and turning angles derived from the hourly steps of the trajectories. In a second phase, states were related to activities disentangling stillness into fishing or stop at sea. Finally the quality of the model performances was rigorously quantified thanks to observers’ data. Confronting model prediction and true activities allowed estimating that 10% of the hourly steps were misclassified. The assumptions and model’ choices are discussed, highlighting the fact that VMS data and observers’ data having different time resolutions, the effective use of validating data was troublesome. However, without validation, these analyses remain speculative. The validation part of this work represents an important step for the operational use of state-space models in ecology in the broad sense (predators’ tracking data, e.g. birds or mammals trajectories).     

Origin of polluted air masses in the Alps. An overview and first results for MONARPOP

The contribution of ZAMG to MONAROP consists of special weather forecasts to control the SOCs sampling procedure and of the analysis of the specific transport processes for SOCs, which is still in progress.In this paper, air pollutant transport into the Alps is demonstrated by examples of inorganic pollutants: Measurements of NO_x and ozone provide evidence for air pollutant transport by local wind systems (valley and slope winds), especially at low elevated sites of the Alps. In addition, trajectory analyses for the high elevation sites demonstrate the importance of large scale synoptic air pollutant transport. The effects of these transport processes with different spatial and temporal scales are governed by the physical and chemical properties of the particular pollutant.First results for the high alpine MONARPOP stations show that air masses from east Europe influence mostly Sonnblick (Austria), whereas the influence of the Po basin is strongest at Weissfluhjoch (Switzerland).     

利用后向轨迹模式研究上海市PM2.5来源分布及传输特征

利用后向轨迹模型,结合上海 PM2．5的浓度数据计算了2012年6月27日-2013年6月26日以上海为起始点的后向轨迹,并通过轨迹相关的分析方法,研究不同来源区域对上海 PM2．5浓度的贡献影响。结果表明：长三角地区的排放对上海的贡献最为显著;苏北、山东等地区的排放对上海也有较明显的贡献;来自海面的贡献总体低于大陆。所采用的轨迹多元回归分析法为 PM2．5的来源分布及传输特征研究提供了新思路。     

基于C4ISRE系统的核电站大气核污染扩散轨迹系统仿真研究

为了在核污染事故处理时提供精细化预警,以辽宁省某核电站周边部分重要目标（大衣屯、大周屯、红沿河镇、驼山乡、西杨乡、复大线应急撤离线路）为研究对象,将环境保护指挥自动化系统C4ISRE（Command,Control,Communications,Computer,Intelligence,Surveillance,Reconnaissance,Environmental Impact Assessment）与HYSPLIT 4.9模型相耦合,采用NCEP（美国国家环境预报中心）的FNL全球气象数据对核污染扩散轨迹进行仿真研究.结果表明:自模拟初始时间2014-04-01T00:00:00.00开始,进、出大衣屯边界时间分别为00:06:16.560、00:06:49.000,历时31.340 s;由西向东横穿过大周屯,进、出时间分别为于00:06:16.56到达大衣屯北部边界,于00:06:46.90扩散出大衣屯边界,经过大衣屯区域耗时共计29.00 s;核污染气团于00:15:30.85到达大周屯上空500 m处,由西向东横穿过大周屯,于00:15:46.05离开大周屯上空,过程耗时15.20 s;核污染气团于00:32:14.25经过重要应急撤离线路2（复大线）,全程耗时32 min 14.25 s.核污染气团与从2014-04-01T00:00:00.000进入红沿河镇上空500 m区域,于00:24:27.00扩散出,全程历时24 min 27.00 s;进、出驼山乡上空500 m区域的时间分别为00:24:28、00:51:00,历时26 min 32.00 s;进、出西杨乡上空的时间分别为00:51:01、01:05:4.70,历时14 min 37.00 s;重点区域大衣屯和大周屯行政区的预警时间分别为376.56、930.85 s,重点撤离线路2区域预警时间为1934.25 s.      

Estimation of explosion energy based on fragment characteristics

Explosions of vessels containing high pressure gases or superheated liquids are a common accident in the chemical industry. Fragments are the most information-rich physical evidence in accident analysis. A method is presented to calculate the total explosion energy based on the characteristics of fragments from the scene of an accident, such as mass, horizontal displacement, etc. The implicit expressions of the initial velocity can be obtained through analysing the trajectory equations of the fragments and the data obtained from the scene of the accident. The total energy is calculated from the relationship between the total explosion energy and the kinetic energy of the fragment. During the calculation there are some uncertain parameters, e.g., the energy factor and the initial angle. To solve the parameter uncertainties, a Monte-Carlo simulation is introduced. Analysis of an industrial accident shows that it is feasible to estimate the total explosion energy using the maximum probability density interval with the proposed methodology.     

PCBs in air, soil and milk in industrialized and urban areas of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Information regarding polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in environmental media in Africa is limited. This paper presents results of a monitoring program conducted in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa designed to characterize levels, trends and sources of airborne PCBs. Particulate and vapor samples were sampled over the 2004-2005 period at three sites. The total PCB concentration averaged 128 ± 47 pg m⁻³, and levels were highest in winter. Tri- through hexa-congeners predominated, and the vapor fraction was predominant. Several tetra- through hexa-chlorinated congeners had levels comparable to those at urban sites in the northern hemisphere, but hepta- through deca-congeners resembled levels at background sites. PCB source areas, deduced using spatial and temporal patterns, compositional information and trajectory analyses, likely included local, regional and global sources. Soils at three rural sites showed high PCB concentrations, and milk from a local dairy showed PCB concentrations comparable to USA levels in year 2000.     

基于SPAMS的兰州市2018年冬季沙尘天气过程细颗粒物污染特征及来源研究

2018年11月22日-12月1日,兰州市经历了一次远距离传输的沙尘天气过程,为了解此次沙尘天气过程时段细颗粒物污染特征及其污染来源变化特征,本研究基于单颗粒气溶胶质谱仪（SPAMS）细颗粒物自动采集数据,并结合常规污染物自动监测数据和气象因子数据对沙尘天气前后及其过境期间细颗粒物化学组分及污染来源变化情况进行了分析,同时利用后向轨迹模型（HYSPLIT）研究了沙尘气溶胶的输送路径.研究结果表明：受沙尘天气过境影响,兰州市PM₁₀浓度大幅升高,PM_2.5/PM₁₀最小值仅为0.13,SO₂、NO₂、CO质量浓度出现明显降低,而O₃质量浓度在沙尘过境时有所升高;细颗粒物质量浓度与MASS数浓度变化趋势基本一致,细颗粒物的变化趋势可一定程度上反映大气细颗粒物的污染状况;利用自适应共振神经网络法分类后经人工合并将所采集到的细颗粒分为9类：OC、EC、HOC、OCEC、MD、HM、K、Na、LEV;所选时间段内SPAMS采集到的OC（24.8%）类颗粒物数量最多,沙尘过境时MD、LEV、Na类颗粒物占比不同程度增大,其余颗粒物占比减小;沙尘过境时扬尘源、生物质燃烧源、工业工艺源、餐饮及其它源贡献率增加,其中扬尘源增幅最大,而其余源贡献占比减小;后向轨迹HYSPLIT模型输送路径结果显示沙尘天气过程的起源地为塔克拉玛干沙漠,传输方向为经新疆的塔里木盆地塔克拉玛干沙漠进入青海中部,最后影响兰州地区.