An imprecise Fault Tree Analysis for the estimation of the Rate of OCcurrence Of Failure (ROCOF)

The paper proposes an imprecise Fault Tree Analysis in order to characterize systems affected by the lack of reliability data. Differently from other research works, the paper introduces a classification of basic events into two categories, namely Initiators and Enablers. Actually, in real industrial systems some events refer to component failures or process parameter deviations from normal operating conditions (Initiators), whereas others refer to the functioning of safety barriers to be activated on demand (Enablers). As a consequence, the output parameter of interest is not the classical probability of occurrence of the top event, but its Rate of OCcurrence (ROCOF) over a stated period of time. In order to characterize the basic events, interval-valued information supplied by experts are properly aggregated and propagated to the top. To this purpose, the Dempster–Shafer Theory of evidence is proposed as a more appropriate mathematical framework than the classical probabilistic one. The proposed methodology, applied to a real industrial scenario, can be considered a helpful tool to support risk managers working in industrial plants.     

Ecotoxicological Assessment of Sediment, Suspended Matter and Water Samples in the Upper Danube River. A pilot study in search for the causes for the decline of fish catches (12 pp)

Goals, Scope and Background Fish populations, especially those of the grayling (Thymallus thymallus), have declined over the last two decades in the upper Danube River between Sigmaringen and Ulm, despite intensive and continuous stocking and improvement of water quality since the 1970s. Similar problems have been reported for other rivers, e.g. in Switzerland, Great Britain, the United States and Canada. In order to assess if ecotoxicological effects might be related to the decline in fish catch at the upper Danube River, sediment, suspended matter and waste water samples from sewage treatment plants were collected at selected locations and analyzed in a bioanalytical approach using a battery of bioassays. The results of this pilot study will be used to decide if a comprehensive weight-of-evidence study is needed. Methods Freeze-dried sediments and suspended particulate matters were extracted with acetone in a Soxhlet apparatus. Organic pollutants from sewage water were concentrated using XAD-resins. In order to investigate the ecotoxicological burden, the following bioassays were used: (1) neutral red assay with RTL-W1 cells (cytotoxicity), (2) comet assay with RTLW1 cells (genotoxicity), (3) Arthrobacter globiformis dehydrogenase assay (toxicity to bacteria), (4) yeast estrogen screen assay (endocrine disruption), (5) fish egg assay with the zebrafish (Danio rerio; embryo toxicity) and (6) Ames test with TA98 (mutagenicity). Results and Discussion The results of the in vitro tests elucidated a considerable genotoxic, cytotoxic, mutagenic, bacteriotoxic, embryotoxic and estrogenic burden in the upper Danube River, although with a very inhomogeneous distribution of effects. The samples taken from Riedlingen, for example, induced low embryo toxicity, but the second highest 17β-estradiol equivalent concentration (1.8 ng/L). Using the fish egg assay with native sediments, a broad range of embryotoxic effects could be elucidated, with clear-cut dose-response relationships for the embryotoxic effects of contaminated sediments. With native sediments, embryotoxicity was clearly higher than with corresponding pore waters, thus corroborating the view that – at least for fish eggs – the bioavailability of particle-bound lipophilic substances in native sediments is higher than generally assumed. The effect observed most frequently in the fish egg assay was a developmental delay. A comparison of our own results with locations along the rivers Rhine and Neckar demonstrated similar or even higher ranges of ecotoxicological burdens in the Danube River. Conclusions The complex pattern of ecotoxicological effects caused by environmental samples from the Danube River, when assessed in an in vitro biotest battery using both acute and more specific endpoints, showed that integration of different endpoints is essential for appropriate hazard assessment. Overall, the ecotoxicological hazard potential shown has indeed to be considered as one potential reason for the decline in fish catches at the upper Danube River. However, based on the results of this pilot study, it is not possible to elucidate that chemically induced alterations are responsible for the fish decline. Recommendations and Perspective . In order to confirm the ecological relevance of the in vitro results for the situation in the field and especially for the decline of the grayling and other fishes, further integrated investigations are required. For linking the weight of evidence obtained by in vitro assays and fish population investigations, the application of additional, more specific biomarkers (e.g. vitellogenin induction, EROD and micronucleus assay) has been initiated in fish taken from the field as well as in situ investigations.     

坡地赤红壤退化与生态环境重建

广东坡地赤红壤是广东农业生产的重要土壤资源，但是，坡地赤红壤长期以来存在着利用不当和退化问题，严重制约着其生产潜力的发挥。文章总结了坡地赤红壤的基本特性及退化状况，探讨了其生态环境重建的途径。认为坡地赤红壤之退化主要是生态退化、水土流失、物理退化和养分退化。指出坡地赤红壤之生态环境重建主要有如下几种途径：因地制宜，合理利用，恢复与重建土壤．植被生态系统；综合治理水土流失；增加有机质，改善土壤结构，提高土壤肥力；发挥地域优势，大力发展绿色农业，走农业产业化道路。     

Optimal hardwood tree planting and forest reclamation policy on reclaimed surface mine lands in the Appalachian coal region

We study the optimal hardwood tree planting decision on reclaimed surface coal mines in the Appalachian region using a mine operator-focused, expected cost model that recognizes costs of preparing the site for tree planting, unit costs of planting seedlings, and opportunity costs of reforestation treatments and the performance bond. We also consider the possibility of failed initial attempts by incorporating the probability of reforestation success, based on empirical seedling ,survival rates and regulated tree survival standards, as well as fixed and unit costs of returning for additional planting. Optimal planting levels from 319 to 780 trees per acre and expected costs from $1049 to $2338 were found using simulations over a range of unit planting costs, fixed costs of replanting, tree survival standards, and interest rates. Further simulations compared optimal planting across un-weathered gray sandstone and weathered brown sandstone substrate materials, finding gray sandstone to be associated with lower expected costs. We conclude that optimal planting density and expected reforestation cost are sensitive to economic parameters, regulations, and planting substrate materials; and those policies influencing these factors may have substantial impact on reforestation outcomes and the choice of post-mining land use by mine operators. Our study provides a framework for understanding forest reclamation decisions that incorporates incentives faced by the mine operators who develop and implement the plans for mine reclamation, including forestry.     

Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining

The concept of “peak oil” has been explored and debated extensively within the literature. However there has been comparatively little research examining the concept of “peak minerals”, particularly in-depth analyses for individual metals. This paper presents scenarios for mined copper production based upon a detailed assessment of global copper resources and historic mine production. Scenarios for production from major copper deposit types and from individual countries or regions were developed using the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo). These scenarios were extended using cumulative grade-tonnage data, derived from our resource database, to produce estimates of potential rates of copper ore grade decline.The scenarios indicate that there are sufficient identified copper resources to grow mined copper production for at least the next twenty years. The future rate of ore grade decline may be less than has historically been the case, as mined grades are approaching the average resource grade and there is still significant copper endowment in high grade ore bodies. Despite increasing demand for copper as the developing world experiences economic growth, the economic and environmental impacts associated with increased production rates and declining ore grades (particularly those relating to energy consumption, water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions) will present barriers to the continued expansion of the industry. For these reasons peak mined copper production may well be realised during this century.