实现环境保护战略目标的风险评价

本文剖析了实现环境保护战略目标的保障体系,通过故障模式影响分析建立了实现环保战略目标的故障树,并利用最小割集法获得故障树的结构函数及顶端事件发生的概率.结果表明,实现环保战略目标的风险为0.311.根据相对重要性大小对各最小割集进行排序,认为环保资金不到位是最显著的风险要素,其中环保投资比例偏低及环保资金管理不善是两个最主要故障.     

气候因子与植被的时滞相关分析——以广西为例

广西地区地下河发育,地表水缺乏,生态系统脆弱、抗干扰能力低,灾害频繁,森林生态系统严重退化,石漠化程度加剧,属于生态脆弱区域,而植被变化是生态系统对气候变化响应的指示器,其变化研究对该地区生态环境建设具有重要意义。文章基于1999--2010年气温与降水数据和GIMMS．NDVI（GlaobalInventoryModellingandMappingMtudies-NormalDifferenceVegetionIndex）数据集,研究近12年来广西地区植被覆盖时空特征。通过时滞相关分析法,分析研究区不同植被类型受气温和降水的影响,即植被NDVI对气温和降水的响应程度。结果表明,（1）植被NDVI与温度的时滞相关程度强于降水,而响应时间刚好相反,植被NDVI对降水的响应比对温度的响应程度要快。（2）植被NDvI与降水的时滞相关规律呈桂南较弱—桂中较强—桂北较弱,但响应时间刚好相反,即桂南较快一桂中较慢—桂北较快。（3）植被NDvI与温度的时滞相关性变化规律呈由南向北递减,响应时间由南向北变快。（4）植被NDVI与气候因子时滞相关越强,响应的时间就越迟缓,反之越快。（5）不同的植被类型对水热条件响应程度不同,与水热条件时滞相关越强的植被则滞后时间相对越久。     

乙虫腈及其代谢产物在稻田中的残留消减动态研究

采用加速溶剂萃取提取、florisil固相萃取小柱净化、气相色谱（电子捕获检测器）测定的方法,研究了江苏南京、江西南昌和福建永泰3地稻田施用乙虫腈农药后,乙虫腈农药及其代谢产物在水稻植株、田水和土壤中的残留消减动力学规律,以及在水稻植株、土壤、稻壳和糙米中最终残留情况。结果表明,乙虫腈母体在南京、南昌和永泰3地水稻植株、土壤、和稻田水中的消减半衰期分别为3．0、4．1和8．3d,9．2、16．9和9．9d,2．8、6．9和10．9d;母体和代谢产物总量在南京、南昌和永泰3地水稻植株、土壤、和稻田水中的消减半衰期分别为8．5、8．2和4．0d,37．1、58．2和20．2d,4．4、8．2和10．8d。在稻田中按照最高推荐剂量和最高推荐剂量1．5倍施用乙虫腈,施药1~2次时,在收获的糙米中乙虫腈的均未检出。     

Magneto-biomonitoring of intra-urban spatial variations of particulate matter using tree leaves

Preliminary mineral magnetic results from a pilot project investigating the suitability of roadside tree leaves as depositories of vehicular pollution are presented. Tree leaf surfaces (Lime: Tilia europaea; Sycamore: Acer pseudoplatanus) at four roadside and one woodland location in Wolverhampton, UK, have been monitored (July 2003 to November 2003). Mineral magnetic technologies have revealed spatial variations of particulate pollution concentration throughout the conurbation and data analysis indicates that magnetic concentration parameters are suitable proxies for fine particulate pollution, which are particularly hazardous to health. Site-specific traffic management and associated vehicle behaviour appear to be chiefly responsible for the magnetic concentration differences between sites. Magneto-biomonitoring in this way allows the high-resolution spatial mapping of particulate matter (PM) pollution, which may also benefit epidemiology in better assessing exposure to vehicular-derived particulates. Given the speed, measurement sensitivity and non-destructive nature of the technique, it is proposed that this low-cost approach offers some advantages over centralised monitoring stations to monitor urban roadside particulate pollution.     

Using T-RFLP technology to analyze bacterial diversity in the rhizospheric soils of tea tree at different ages北大核心CSCD

The rhizospheric soils of Tieguanyin at different ages were used as the study materials, and terminal-restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) was used to analyze the changes in bacterial diversity. The results showed that the number of T-RFs, Simpson index, and Shannon index decreased significantly with the age of the tea tree. Results of correlation analysis showed that 9 T-RFs from the bacterial community were significantly and positively correlated with the age of the tea tree, and included 34 species of microbes belonging to 10 classes. The 34 microbes were divided into 6 types according to their functional attributes, and included pathogenic bacteria, bacteria that improved soil texture or inhibited pathogenic bacteria, and bacteria associated with the carbon, nitrogen, or sulfur cycles, in which the percentage of pathogenic bacteria was 58.82%. Seventeen T-RFs were significantly and negatively correlated with the age of the tea tree, and included 38 species of bacteria belonging to 12 classes. The 38 bacterial species were divided into 5 types according to their functional attributes, and included pathogenic bacteria, bacteria that improved soil quality or inhibited pathogenic bacteria, and bacteria associated with the carbon cycle or nitrogen cycle, in which all the others, barring the pathogenic bacteria, accounted for 78.95% of the bacterial population. In brief, the diversity and function of bacteria in the rhizospheric soil of tea tree changed significantly with the age of the tea tree, which provides a theoretical basis for studying the interactions of bacterial communities. © 2018 Science Press. All rights reserved.     

Trees and rural households’ adaptation to local environmental change in the central highlands of Ethiopia

This study assesses the role of trees in adaptation strategies of rural households to local environmental change in the central highlands of Ethiopia. Change in tree cover was assessed by producing Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) maps using satellite remote sensing images, and household survey was conducted to generate socioeconomic data. The results show that tree cover has increased over the last 30 years, mostly in the form of eucalyptus woodlots around homesteads. Eucalyptus reportedly helps households pass through livelihood shocks and provide protection against negative effects of climate change and variability. Despite some concerns on the part of local agricultural experts that planting eucalyptus may affect future food production, farmers are converting their croplands into eucalyptus woodlots. We conclude that land use planning and proper allocation of land resource is important to improve local livelihoods while also supporting adaptation of communities to local environmental change in general and climate change in particular.     

紫金山登山道主要树种抗火性研究

比较分析了紫金山登山道两侧主要树种的抗火能力,对紫金山不同立地、区位的森林生物防火林带建设和树种选择进行探讨和分析。利用层次分析法,从树种燃烧特性、生物学和生态抗火特性三个方面对紫金山登山道路两侧32种主要树种的抗火性进行综合评价分析,并利用聚类分析对32种树种的抗火性进行分类。结果表明:石楠、油茶、冬青、栓皮栎、青冈、枸骨、麻栎等12种树种综合抗火性较强;朴树、枫香、黄檀、黄连木等7种树种综合抗火性一般;糙叶树、短叶中华石楠、苦树、山胡椒、紫薇、狭叶山胡椒等12种树种综合抗火性较弱;马尾松综合抗火性最弱。树种抗火性评价的11项评价指标中树叶特性、含水率、树皮特征、热值、树冠结构5项指标对树种抗火性影响较大,综合生物学特征对树种抗火性影响最大。冬青、青冈、女贞等常绿大乔木,石楠、油茶、枸骨、茶树等常绿灌木抗火性较强,可以作为防火树种。糙叶树、短叶中华石楠、苦树、山胡椒、紫薇、狭叶山胡椒、瓜木、构树、鸡爪槭、白檀、青桐、卫矛、马尾松等抗火性差,在森林防火中需要重点防护。     

The effect of summer drought on the predictability of local extinctions in a butterfly metapopulation

The ecological impacts of extreme climatic events on population dynamics and community composition are profound and predominantly negative. Using extensive data of an ecological model system, we tested whether predictions from ecological models remain robust when environmental conditions are outside the bounds of observation. We observed a 10-fold demographic decline of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulation on the Åland islands, Finland in the summer of 2018 and used climatic and satellite data to demonstrate that this year was an anomaly with low climatic water balance values and low vegetation productivity indices across Åland. Population growth rates were strongly associated with spatiotemporal variation in climatic water balance. Covariates shown previously to affect the extinction probability of local populations in this metapopulation were less informative when populations were exposed to severe drought during the summer months. Our results highlight the unpredictable responses of natural populations to extreme climatic events.     

Anthropogenic NOx emissions alter the intrinsic water-use efficiency (WUEi) for Quercus cerris stands under Mediterranean climate conditions

We investigated the effect of N deposition (Ndep) on intrinsic water-use efficiency (WUE_i), the ratio of photosynthesis (A) to stomatal conductance (g_s), for two Quercus cerris stands at different distances to an oil refinery in Southern Italy. We used δ¹³C in tree rings for assessing changes in WUE_i; while the influence of climate and NO_x emission was explored through δ¹⁸O and δ¹⁵N, respectively. Differences in WUE_i between the two sites were significant, with trees exposed to different degrees of NO_x emissions showing an abrupt increase with the onset of pollution. Assuming similar g_s at the two sites, as inferred through δ¹⁸O, the higher N availability at the polluted site caused the shift of the A/g_s ratio in favour of A. Overall, our result suggests that an increase of Ndep may enhance tree WUE under a scenario of reduction of precipitation predicted for Mediterranean area.     

Biomagnetic monitoring of industry-derived particulate pollution

Clear association exists between ambient PM₁₀ concentrations and adverse health outcomes. However, determination of the strength of associations between exposure and illness is limited by low spatial-resolution of particulate concentration measurements. Conventional fixed monitoring stations provide high temporal-resolution data, but cannot capture fine-scale spatial variations. Here we examine the utility of biomagnetic monitoring for spatial mapping of PM₁₀ concentrations around a major industrial site. We combine leaf magnetic measurements with co-located PM₁₀ measurements to achieve inter-calibration. Comparison of the leaf-calculated and measured PM₁₀ concentrations with PM₁₀ predictions from a widely-used atmospheric dispersion model indicates that modelling of stack emissions alone substantially under-predicts ambient PM₁₀ concentrations in parts of the study area. Some of this discrepancy might be attributable to fugitive emissions from the industrial site. The composition of the magnetic particulates from vehicle and industry-derived sources differ, indicating the potential of magnetic techniques for source attribution.