基于ARIMA和BP神经网络组合模型的我国碳排放强度预测

预测我国碳排放强度的长期变动趋势, 对国家进行宏观经济管理和节能减排工作具有重要的参考价值。运用深入分析自回归移动平均模型和神经网络的特性,并在此基础上建立ARIMA模型和BP神经网络组合模型,将碳排放强度的时间序列的数据结构分解为线性和非线性残差部分,对我国碳排放强度的变化趋势进行了综合分析与预测。结果显示:今后10 a我国碳排放强度总体是逐步下降的,但到2020年我国碳排放强度仅比2005年下降34%,比我国政府提出碳排放强度下降40%~45%的目标还有一定的差距。因此,要在2020年实现我国碳排放强度目标,必须要调整宏观经济政策,采取各种政策措施以实现目标     

西安f7地裂缝发展变化的预测研究

论文首先分析和总结了影响西安地裂缝发展变化的主要人为因素。随后,利用三维非稳定渗流分析方法研究了人类活动对地下水位的影响;根据西安市新增固定资产投资的变化,预测了地面荷载的变化;以时间、地下水位和地面荷载为基本变量,建立了预测f 7地裂缝活动趋势的BP神经网络模型;最后,借助MATLAB语言进行编程,利用训练稳定的网络模型,预测了f 7地裂缝的活动趋势以及年平均的垂直位移沉降量,为进一步研究西安地铁2号线安全运行和防护提供参考依据。     

基于产业链的区域环境污染物排放的产业贡献

区域经济增长与环境质量之间的关系研究是目前学者们探讨的重要学术议题之一.其中较多的是对EKC曲线的验证,近几年部分学者从国民经济各部门中的产业自身特征、产业结构、技术进步、FDI效应等方面考察产业发展对污染物排放的影响.然而以上研究议题中学者均没有讨论污染物的发生主体-各产业部门与排污的直接关系.故本文将从宏观尺度下的综合水平测度区域经济发展与环境质量关系、中观尺度下的产业属性特征与排污关系的研究视角转移至分析具体产业部门的污染物排放效应,同时将产业置于产业链的结构形式中,研究产业链上产业发展与污染物排放的关系.发现:第一,通过借助复杂网络思想的社区划分方法,将山东省39个产业部门分为3个社团.其中社团I主要由制造业部门组成,共有18个产业部门,社团II包括了15个部门,主要是第三产业,杜团III由6个产业部门组成且内部异质性高.第二,选择其中以制造业为主的社团I,并在社团I内识别出一条彼此间联系最为紧密的产业链,包括农林牧渔业、食品制造及烟草加工业、化学工业、纺织工业、服装皮革羽绒及其制品业、通用/专用设备制造业和交通运输设备制造业.以一种定量的方法获取了通过价值流传递而串在一起的产业链条.该产业链的经济规模、污染物规模在山东省均有重要地位.第三,采用岭回归分析方法,构建了6个制造业与产业链工业废水、固体废弃物排放的关系模型,6个制造业中对工业废水、固体废弃物排放相对贡献度最大的部门分别为服装皮革羽绒及其制品业、食品制造及烟草加工业.这是由于上游产业排污的链式传递效应与产业自身污染物排放效应的共同叠加作用.     

FTA在城市控制爆破工程事故中的运用

城市控制爆破工程采用电雷管网路起爆,极易发生爆破事故.运用FTA方法,编制了爆破事故树,并进行了定性分析.结合工程实际,提出了爆破事故的具体预防措施,更依法采取了爆破安全管理措施.     

瑞士土壤环境监测网络构建与运行对中国的启示

“十三五”期间,中国初步构建了国家土壤环境监测网并开展了监测工作。当前,国家层面土壤环境监测网络的构建和运行还处于起步阶段,笔者选取土壤环境监测开展较为成熟的瑞士土壤环境监测网(NABO)作为研究对象,综述了NABO的技术体系及多年来的土壤环境监测结果,并结合中国土壤环境监测工作现状进行讨论,认为NABO在监测网络建立、指标选取、数据分析等方面建立了较为成熟的技术体系,未来中国国家土壤环境监测网可在此方面借鉴瑞士经验。     

Estimating the extent and structure of trade in horticultural orchids via social media

The wildlife trade is a lucrative industry involving thousands of animal and plant species. The increasing use of the internet for both legal and illegal wildlife trade is well documented, but there is evidence that trade may be emerging on new online technologies such as social media. Using the orchid trade as a case study, we conducted the first systematic survey of wildlife trade on an international social‐media website. We focused on themed forums (groups), where people with similar interests can interact by uploading images or text (posts) that are visible to other group members. We used social‐network analysis to examine the ties between 150 of these orchid‐themed groups to determine the structure of the network. We found 4 communities of closely linked groups based around shared language. Most trade occurred in a community that consisted of English‐speaking and Southeast Asian groups. In addition to the network analysis, we randomly sampled 30 groups from the whole network to assess the prevalence of trade in cultivated and wild plants. Of 55,805 posts recorded over 12 weeks, 8.9% contained plants for sale, and 22–46% of these posts pertained to wild‐collected orchids. Although total numbers of posts about trade were relatively small, the large proportion of posts advertising wild orchids for sale supports calls for better monitoring of social media for trade in wild‐collected plants.     

GIS网络服务区分析在重庆市主城区夜间施工噪声投诉处置中应用

通过对重庆市主城区夜间施工噪声投诉处置现状分析,以主城区道路交通网络、环境监察机构分布等数据专题建模,采用G IS的网络服务区功能的分析结果,提出车辆调度合理化建议方案,为环境监察部门的夜间施工噪声投诉处置车辆部署调度提供辅助技术支持。     

JUSTIFICATION FOR A REDUCTION IN THE CREST-STAGE GAGE PROGRAM IN LOUISIANA1

The crest-stage gage program in Louisiana was evaluated to determine if the data were adequate for use in developing regional flood-frequency equations and to determine if any crest-stage gage stations could be discontinued. An abundance of data at many crest-stage gage stations and a lack of data for urban areas and flat-slope areas indicated a need for a shift in the number, type, and locations of gages. Correlations and comparisons of annual peak discharges and watershed characteristics of 96 existing stations resulted in the elimination of 72 stations and the addition of one new station, reducing the total network to 25 stations that could be used for future flood-frequency analyses. The adequacy of the reduced network for development and verification of regional flood-frequency equations was tested by comparing a set of regional flood-frequency equations developed using data from the full network with a set developed using data from the reduced network. The results indicate that the crest-stage gage network can be reduced to 25 stations and still provide adequate information for future flood-frequency analyses.     

Large-scale constructed wetlands for nutrient removal from stormwater runoff: An everglades restoration project

The South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) constructed a wetland south of Lake Okeechobee to begin the process of removing nutrients (especially phosphorus) from agricultural stormwater runoff entering the Everglades. The project, called the Everglades Nutrient Removal (ENR) project, is a prototype for larger, similarly constructed wetlands that the SFWMD will build as part of the Everglades restoration program. This innovative project is believed to be one of the largest agricultural stormwater cleanup projects in the United States, if not in the world. This publication describes the ENR project's design, construction, and proposed operation, as well as the proposed research program to be implemented over the next few years.     

计算机局域网络保密措施

随着计算机的普及 ,局域网络越来越广为利用 ,但也出现了相应的失密问题。本文从信息及实体两个方面 ,论述了局域网络的保密措施。