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191.
The safety of the solid propellant molding process is vital for the stable production of high-quality propellants. Failure events caused by abnormal parameters in the molding process may have catastrophic consequences. In this paper, a Bayesian network (BN) model is proposed to assess the safety of the solid propellant granule-casting molding process. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is developed to construct a causal link between process variables and process failures. Subsequently, expert experience and fuzzy set theory (FST) are used to obtain failure probabilities of the basic events (BEs). Based on the mapping rules, FTA provides BN with reliable prior knowledge and a network structure with interpretability. Finally, when new evidence is obtained, the probability is updated with the diagnostic reasoning capability of BN. The results of the sensitivity analysis and diagnostic inference were combined to identify key parameters in the granule-casting molding process, including curing temperature, vacuum degree, extrusion, calendering roll distance, length setting value, holding time, and polish time. The results of this paper can provide effective supporting information for managers to conduct process safety analysis. 相似文献
192.
为了快速有效地确定矿车等运输设备在巷道内运行时矿井摩擦阻力的变化情况,克服模拟软件计算量和现场实测工作量大的问题,以巷道风流速度、矿车运行速度、阻塞比、矿车长度4个矿车运行时巷道摩擦阻力的影响因素作为切入点,采用动网格技术模拟得到矿车在巷道内运行时有关矿井摩擦阻力的数据,以此为样本构建基于BP神经网络的矿井摩擦阻力预测模型,运用MATLAB软件进行网络训练,并将BP神经网络预测值与FLUENT模拟值进行对比。研究结果表明:BP神经网络结构比较简单,能以较快速度收敛,预测值与模拟值最大误差在7%以内,该神经网络模型用于求解矿车等运输设备在巷道内运行时摩擦阻力的变化情况是可行的。 相似文献
193.
Endemic fluorosis exists in almost all provinces of China. The long-term ingestion of groundwater containing high concentrations of fluoride is one of the main causes of fluorosis. We used artificial neural network to model the relationship between groundwater fluoride concentrations from throughout China and environmental variables such as climatic, geological. and soil parameters as proxy predictors. The results show that the accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model in the test dataset are 80.5% and 0.86%, respectively, and climatic variables are the most effective predictors. Based on the artificial neural network model, a nationwide prediction risk map of fluoride concentrations exceeding 1.5 mg/L with a 0.5 × 0.5 arc minutes resolution was generated. The high risk areas are mainly located in western provinces of Xinjiang, Tibet, Qinghai, and Sichuan, and the northern provinces of Inner Mongolia, Hebei and Shandong. The total number of people estimated to be potentially at risk of fluorosis due to the use of untreated high fluoride groundwater as drinking water is about 89 million, or 6% of the population. The high fluoride groundwater risk map helps the authorities to prioritize areas requiring mitigation measures and thus facilitates the implementation of water improvement and defluoridation projects. 相似文献
194.
抗生素共暴露对污水处理厂抗生素抗性基因(ARGs)及微生物群落聚集过程有着重要影响.然而,历史抗生素接触胁迫差异(遗留效应)是否能决定微生物和ARGs对抗生素复合污染的响应尚不清楚.通过选择高浓度(30 mg ·L-1)磺胺甲唑(SMX)和甲氧苄啶(TMP)作为历史接触胁迫条件,探究SMX和TMP复合污染对ARGs、细菌群落及其交互作用的短期影响.基于高通量荧光定量PCR,共检测出13种ARGs,它们的绝对丰度介于2.21~5.42 copies ·μL-1(对数值,以DNA计,下同),其中sul2、ermB、mefA和tetM-01是样品中最主要的亚型,绝对丰度在2.95~5.40 copies ·μL-1之间;SMX和TMP复合污染会引起ARGs和可移动基因元件(MGEs)的富集,但其对各亚型的影响不同,且SMX的历史遗留效应高于TMP;不同接触史的复合污染下,ARGs间的共现与互斥模式均存在;MGEs (尤其是intI-1)与磺胺类(sul1、sul2)、四环素类[tet (32)]和大环内酯-林可酰胺-链霉菌素类抗性基因(ermB)均呈显著正相关性;基于微生物全尺度分类发现各类群微生物群落结构对复合污染的响应不同,且条件丰富菌属(CAT)得到了显著富集;陶厄氏菌属(Thauera)、假黄单胞菌属(Pseudoxanthomonas)和副球菌属(Paracoccus)是优势的抗性菌属;网络分析共发现31个ARGs的潜在宿主,以条件稀有菌属(CRT)为主,尤其是Candidatus_Alysiosphaera和纺锤状菌属(Fusibacter)与多种ARGs呈现正相关,是多种ARGs的潜在公共细菌宿主;部分稀有菌属[RT,变异杆菌属(Variibacter)、气单胞菌属(Aeromonas)和管道杆菌属(Cloacibacterium)等]是转座子IS 613的潜在宿主,在ARGs的增殖传播中发挥重要作用.综上,研究揭示了污水处理系统中抗生素历史胁迫对ARGs赋存特征和及其宿主细胞的遗留效应,可为削减抗生素复合污染引起的ARGs污染提供新思路与理论依据. 相似文献
195.
196.
Further to the European Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) Directive, setting up efficient collection schemes is necessary to ensure the recovery targets set. Following the subsidiary principle, the WEEE Directive defines only the general requirements for mandatory collection and recycling objectives. The modalities of the logistics and the organisation of the take-back schemes are left to the choice of Member States. In this paper, the implementation of the WEEE Directive and the development of the WEEE recovery infrastructure in Finland are described and the challenges to the effective management of the WEEE recovery system in Finland are expressed. It can be said that the implementation of the WEEE Directive has succeeded in Finland and, at the same time, the legislative basis has been enacted. In addition, a functional WEEE recovery infrastructure has been built and, the collection requirements of the WEEE Directive have been exceeded in a relatively short time. However, the paper outlines that some inefficient practices still exist, particularly in the registration and WEEE collection stages. It is concluded that raising awareness would lead to a more environmentally sound behaviour and would, ultimately, improve WEEE recovery efficiency. 相似文献
197.
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199.
基于网络组织视角的粮食产业化模式与优化路径 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
在全球粮食安全状况严峻以及中国人多地少的形势下,探讨粮食的产业化发展具有重要意义。从网络组织视角出发,梳理了中国粮食产业化模式并提出优化路径。研究表明:粮食产业化发展是一个网络化的成长过程。基于网络主体控制与参与网络的能力、融资形式以及立足或服务的空间尺度,可以将粮食产业化模式划分为“国家调控跨国公司组织模式”“地方主导龙头企业带动模式”“政府主导社会多元主体参与模式”和“市场主导私营企业推动模式”这四类主要模式,分别对应介于市场组织与等级制组织之间的全球—区域—本地网络组织,并以跨国公司、本地龙头企业、产业化联合体、产业园区、产业集群等产业化组织形式呈现。进一步建议从提升网络主体开始,通过优化网络结构、强化网络载体、完善网络治理来指导粮食产业化的高质量发展。 相似文献
200.
Marina Cabrini Manuela Andri Sara Cok Irene Pecchiar Serena Fonda Umani 《Chemistry and Ecology》2013,29(1-2):95-105
In the frame of PRISMA II Project samples for plankton analyses were carried out during four cruises (June, 1996; February and June, 1997; February, 1998) in order to assess the relative importance in term of biomasses of the three main size fractions (pico- <2 r µm, nano- 2-20 r µm and micro-plankton >20 r µm). Spatial and temporal distribution of the three plankton fractions were described as abundance and contribution to the total carbon content in an area between Po River mouth and Rimini. The relative contribution of picoplankton resulted higher in the offshore zone, while that of nanoplankton in the inshore waters. In February 1998 microphytoplankton, mainly constituted by diatoms, was very abundant in the inshore waters. Micro-zooplankton was always very scarce. Cluster analyses performed on these data grouped the stations on the basis of their community structure, and agreed with the hydrological features. Small size classes contributed more significantly to the total plankton carbon content in most of the situations. Microplankton fraction contribution was relevant only during spring diatom bloom of February 1998 and with a less extent in the confined coastal summer blooms. 相似文献