广西沿海台风灾害风险评估初探

分析了广西沿海台风灾害危险度的影响因素，并用打分法给沿海１６个区段划分了台风灾害风险等级。最后探讨了台风风险评估与沿海地区经济发展的关系．     

The remaining islands with primary rain forest: A global resource

Islands with large tracts of primary rain forest constitute a distinct complex of terrestrial and marine ecosystems with global significance because of high levels of biological richness or, in the case of oceanic islands, the evolutionary distinctiveness of the organisms that they support. The myriad of small habitat units makes these settings particularly prone to fragmentation and thus problematic for the conservation of biological diversity. Most of the remaining examples of islands with primary rain forest are in the Pacific Rim, particularly in Indonesia, and there are threats from intensive timber harvesting, mining, tourism, and dismemberment of traditional convervation systems. Prospects for inventorying, monitoring, and protecting the remaining islands with relatively pristine successional mosaics of humid forest and shallow marine habitats within a framework global monitoring are explored. Recommendations are made for a program of expanded use of the biosphere reserve designation for rain forest islands and adjacent marine areas.     

A Preliminary Index of Biotic Integrity for Monitoring the Condition of the Rio Paraiba do Sul,Southeast Brazil

The biodiversity of many Brazilian rivers is seriously threatened by industrial and municipal pollution, and Rio Paraiba do Sul, located between two major industrial centers is one example of this situation. A survey of the fish assemblage was conducted from October 1998 to September 1999 and the data were used to develop an index of biotic integrity (IBI). We sampled three zones in bracketing a large urban–industrial complex to evaluate water quality changes and the usefulness of the IBI as a monitoring tool. Water quality was classified as poor upstream of the effluent discharges, very poor near the discharges, and poor–fair downstream of the discharges, with this latter situation revealing the current biological capacity of the river. Physical and chemical habitat characteristics were also measured at each site to construct an independent environmental index to validate the IBI. The habitat and IBI indices were highly correlated, suggesting this IBI would be applicable to other large rivers in southeast Brazil.     

Carbon sequestration,biological diversity,and sustainable development: Integrated forest management

Tropical deforestation provides a significant contribution to anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO₂ concentration that may lead to global warming. Forestation and other forest management options to sequester CO₂ in the tropical latitudes may fail unless they address local economic, social, environmental, and political needs of people in the developing world. Forest management is discussed in terms of three objectives: carbon sequestration, sustainable development, and biodiversity conservation. An integrated forest management strategy of land-use planning is proposed to achieve these objectives and is centered around: preservation of primary forest, intensified use of nontimber resources, agroforestry, and selective use of plantation forestry. The information in this document has been wholly funded by the US Environmental Protection Agency. It has been subjected to the agency's peer and administrative review and approved for publication of an EPA document. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.     

Land use change and carbon exchange in the tropics: II. Estimates for the entire region

Determining the effect of tropical land use on the carbon dioxide (CO₂) content of the atmosphere requires: (a) estimates of the rates of land use change, (b) estimates of the difference between the carbon stored in forests and that stored in pastures and cultivated fields, and (c) a consideration of the fate of carbon stored in the cleared vegetation. The first article of this series analyzed land use in four tropical countries and estimated the carbon released to the atmosphere as a consequence of changes in land use. This article estimates the carbon released from the entire tropical region based on the two published studies of land use change for the tropics as a whole that distinguish between temporary and permanent land use: Seiler and Crutzen (1980) and Lanly (1982). We combine these estimates with two estimates of the difference in carbon storage between forests and fields derived from Whittaker and Likens (1975) and Brown and Lugo (1982), and the two scenarios of the fate of cleared vegetation, developed in the previous article, to produce several complete sets of data describing the necessary parameters to calculate carbon exchange. These data sets, entered into our model, produce a range of estimates of the annual release of carbon from tropical vegetation in 1980 of from 0.6 to 1.8 BMT/year, with the more likely range being 0.9–1.2 BMT/year. Our preliminary analysis suggests that the release from tropical soils due to land use change adds about an additional 0.3 BMT C/year, so that the total release is probably between 1.2 and 1.5 BMT C/year. Peng and others (1983) reported that new models of the oceanic carbon cycle can accommodate at least 1.2 BMT C/year in 1980 from forests and soils. Our results indicate that, given the uncertainties in the size of both the biotic release and oceanic uptake, the global carbon budget may be balanced if there is no significant release from nontropical ecosystems due to land use change and all mature ecosystems are in collective equilibrium with the atmosphere.     

Methane and CO2 fluxes from an Indonesian peatland used for sago palm (Metroxylon sagu Rottb.) cultivation: Effects of fertilizer and groundwater level management

Tropical peatland is a vast potential land source for biological production, but peatland is a major natural source of greenhouse gases, especially methane (CH₄). It is important to evaluate the changes in greenhouse gas emissions induced by cultivation practices for sustainable agricultural use of tropical peatland. We investigated the effects of fertilizer application and the groundwater level on CH₄ and carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes in an Indonesian peat soil. The crop cultivated was sago palm (Metroxylon sagu Rottb.), which can grow on tropical peat soil without drainage and yield great amounts of starch. CH₄ emission through sago palm plants was first estimated by collecting gas samples immediately after cutting sago suckers using the closed chamber method. The CH₄ fluxes ranged from negative values to 1.0 mg C m⁻² h⁻¹. The mean CH₄ flux from treatment with macroelements (N, P, and K) and microelements (B, Cu, Fe, and Zn) applied at normal rates did not differ significantly from that of the No fertilizer treatment, although increasing the application rates of macroelements or microelements by 10-fold increased the CH₄ flux by a factor of two or three. The relationship between CH₄ flux and the groundwater table was regressed to a logarithmic equation, which indicated that to maintain a small CH₄ flux, the groundwater table should be maintained at <−45 cm. The CO₂ fluxes ranged between 24 and 150 mg C m⁻² h⁻¹, and were not significantly affected by either fertilizer treatments or the groundwater level. The inclusion of sago palm suckers in a chamber increased CH₄ emission from the peat soil significantly. Thus, gas emissions mediated by certain kinds of palm plants should not be disregarded.     

Predicting tree distributions in an East African biodiversity hotspot: model selection, data bias and envelope uncertainty

The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAMs) of Tanzania and Kenya support some of the most ancient tropical rainforest on Earth. The forests are a global priority for biodiversity conservation and provide vital resources to the Tanzanian population. Here, we make a first attempt to predict the spatial distribution of 40 EAM tree species, using generalised additive models, plot data and environmental predictor maps at sub 1 km resolution. The results of three modelling experiments are presented, investigating predictions obtained by (1) two different procedures for the stepwise selection of predictors, (2) down-weighting absence data, and (3) incorporating an autocovariate term to describe fine-scale spatial aggregation. In response to recent concerns regarding the extrapolation of model predictions beyond the restricted environmental range of training data, we also demonstrate a novel graphical tool for quantifying envelope uncertainty in restricted range niche-based models (envelope uncertainty maps). We find that even for species with very few documented occurrences useful estimates of distribution can be achieved. Initiating selection with a null model is found to be useful for explanatory purposes, while beginning with a full predictor set can over-fit the data. We show that a simple multimodel average of these two best-model predictions yields a superior compromise between generality and precision (parsimony). Down-weighting absences shifts the balance of errors in favour of higher sensitivity, reducing the number of serious mistakes (i.e., falsely predicted absences); however, response functions are more complex, exacerbating uncertainty in larger models. Spatial autocovariates help describe fine-scale patterns of occurrence and significantly improve explained deviance, though if important environmental constraints are omitted then model stability and explanatory power can be compromised. We conclude that the best modelling practice is contingent both on the intentions of the analyst (explanation or prediction) and on the quality of distribution data; generalised additive models have potential to provide valuable information for conservation in the EAMs, but methods must be carefully considered, particularly if occurrence data are scarce. Full results and details of all species models are supplied in an online Appendix.     

Social influences on expressed willingness to pay: results of a deliberative monetary valuation study in Colombia

Deliberative monetary valuation (DMV) methods can support environmental decision making by enabling the exchange of arguments and information to produce more democratic outcomes. The product of a valuation may be an array of expressions of willingness to pay (WTP) by individuals or a collectively agreed monetary value. Concerns have been raised, however, as to whether this product is an outcome of thoughtful and independent decision-making or influenced by social pressures to conform. Our study examines this issue and addresses concerns about the use of DMV, based on a public deliberation of forest conservation in Colombia. We analyzed the impacts of social conformity on WTP under two different decision scenarios: individual and collective. The results suggest that the impacts of social conformity are greater when a collective decision is required. These findings indicate that tensions between the differing goals of DMV could undermine its democratic promise.     

Avoidance behaviour of Eisenia fetida to carbofuran, chlorpyrifos, mancozeb and metamidophos in natural soils from the highlands of Colombia

Earthworm avoidance behaviour test is an important screening tool in soil eco-toxicology. This test has been developed and validated under North American and European conditions. However, little research has been performed on the avoidance test in the tropics. This work demonstrates the potential suitability of the avoidance behaviour test as screening method in the highlands of Colombia using Eisenia fetida as the bio-indicator species on contaminated soils with carbofuran and chlorpyrifos. Though for the two active ingredients 100% avoidance was not reached, a curve with six meaningful concentrations is provided. No significant avoidance behaviour trend was found for mancozeb and methamidophos. Tests were conducted in the field yielded similar results to the tests carried out in the laboratory for chlorpyrifos and mancozeb. However, for the case of carbofuran and methamidophos, differences of more than double in avoidance were obtained. Divergence might be explained by soil and temperature conditions.     

Influence of temperature and soil type on the toxicity of three pesticides to Eisenia andrei

Expansion of agriculture in the tropics has increased the use of pesticides that may affect the soil ecosystems. Few studies so far determined the effects of pesticides in the tropics and tropical risk assessment therefore often relies on data from temperate conditions. Hence we compared the toxicity of chlorpyrifos, carbofuran and carbendazim to the earthworm Eisenia andrei at two different temperatures reflecting temperate and tropical conditions. The toxicity of the three pesticides in both conditions decreased in the order carbendazim > carbofuran > chlorpyrifos. For chlorpyrifos and carbofuran, but not for carbendazim, survival was more sensitive at the higher temperature, probably due to increased earthworm activity. Sub-lethal effects (reproduction and growth) however, varied inconsistently with temperature and soil types. We conclude that toxicity of pesticides in tropics may not be predicted from data generated under temperate conditions, even within the same species.