Clustering species using a model of population dynamics and aggregation theory

The high species diversity of some ecosystems like tropical rainforests goes in pair with the scarcity of data for most species. This hinders the development of models that require enough data for fitting. The solution commonly adopted by modellers consists in grouping species to form more sizeable data sets. Classical methods for grouping species such as hierarchical cluster analysis do not take account of the variability of the species characteristics used for clustering. In this study a clustering method based on aggregation theory is presented. It takes account of the variability of species characteristics by searching for the grouping that minimizes the quadratic error (square bias plus variance) of some model’s prediction. This method allows one to check whether the gain in variance brought by data pooling compensate for the bias that it introduces. This method was applied to a data set on 94 tree species in a tropical rainforest in French Guiana, using a Usher matrix model to predict species dynamics. An optimal trade-off between bias and variance was found when grouping species. Grouping species appeared to decrease the quadratic error, except when the number of groups was very small. This clustering method yielded species groups similar to those of the hierarchical cluster analysis using Ward’s method when variance was small, that is when the number of groups was small.     

登陆广东的热带气旋灾害评估和预测模式

本文通过对登陆广东省的热带气旋的灾害研究，建立了三个适合当地情况的灾害评估预测模式，拟合效果较为理想，可在热带气旋影响结束后的１－２天内对灾情作出客观评估。     

1991年孟加拉湾特大台风灾害

１９９１年４月２９日孟加拉国发生一次特大台风灾害，死亡１３８０００人，损失３０亿美元。事后，孟加拉国政府组织了详细的调配分析。指出平坦低下地形、漏头状海岸线、落后的社会制度、人民极端贫穷是特大灾害的基本原因。另外，人民因过去几次错误预报而不相信台风警报；海堤很差，许多人住在海堤以外，住房很坏，通讯条件落后等等，更加剧了这次灾难。本文介绍这镒台风灾害的形成背景和灾害程度，供我国防台工作的参考。     

Supply responses in tropical forestry: A Malaysian case study

The rapid exhaustion of Malaysia's commercial primaeval forest base has raised questions regarding the management and economic responses in the sector. The article assesses the institutional and management structure of Malaysian forestry which, together with the social and political barriers at work, prevent an orderly programme of harvesting and reforestation. The supply is then set out in terms of an econometric model, formulated both in static and dynamic terms to measure, among other things, the responses of output to price changes. The model, which is the first of its kind to be tested for the Malaysian forestry sector, is applied on three wood-based commodities — sawlogs, sawnwood and plywood. To learn of possible regional variations, the model is also applied to data of the country's three principal components — Peninsular Malaysia, Sarawak and Sabah. The results indicate that short-run price elasticities of supply are low, and in some cases, even contrary to expectations based on economic theory. Allowing for data inconsistencies, the slow responses of output to changes in price may be attributed to the method of wood disposal, its timing as well as the social and political barriers to entry at work in the sector.     

80年代我国的热带气旋灾害

本文通过对我国1980～1989年热带气旋灾害的分析与评估,指出热带气旋灾害具有影响偏南、多集中于夏季且与冷空气等气象灾害重叠、加重灾情等特点,总结了以往防治台风灾害工作中的经验与教训。     

Tropical deciduous forests and the adivasi. Indigenous traditions as response to leaf fall in Bastar, India

This article draws attention to the crucial link between the tropical deciduous forest ecosystem and the lifestyle of the adivasi (indigenous) people. Taking the case of Bastar District in Chhattisgarh, Central India, an analysis is made of the various commonly used wild plants, their deciduous habit, and the adivasi calendar that regulates the peoples’ use of these plants. By examining the specific seasonal patterns of leaf fall of plants and the dates set for the commencement of their use, the article shows that there is an implicit relation between adivasi festivals and the deciduous character of Bastar's forests.     

Shorebird fauna changes of a small tropical estuary following habitat alteration: Biological and political impacts of environmental restoration

Numbers of shorebirds visiting the Paiko Lagoon Wildlife Sanctuary, a small tropical estuary located on Oahu, Hawaii, are compared before and after environmental restoration of the lagoon. An attempt is made to examine both the biological impacts and policy implications of the project. The biological results indicate that shorebird abundance did not increase following restoration. On the other hand, public perceptions regarding the ecological value of the lagoon suggest that in spite of a lack of biological benefit to shorebirds, the lagoon was perceived by the public, particularly local residents, as being more ecologically valuable because it had been aesthetically improved. The discussion focuses on the interplay between scientific and non-scientific factors in natural resource decision making.     

Climate change: linking adaptation and mitigation through agroforestry

Agriculture is the human enterprise that is most vulnerable to climate change. Tropical agriculture, particularly subsistence agriculture is particularly vulnerable, as smallholder farmers do not have adequate resources to adapt to climate change. While agroforestry may play a significant role in mitigating the atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG), it also has a role to play in helping smallholder farmers adapt to climate change. In this paper, we examine data on the mitigation potential of agroforestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics. We then present the scientific evidence that leads to the expectation that agroforestry also has an important role in climate change adaptation, particularly for small holder farmers. We conclude with priority research questions that need to be answered concerning the role of agroforestry in both mitigation and adaptation to climate change.     

Effect of application of ammonium thiosulphate on production and emission of methane in a tropical rice soil

Agricultural sources of atmospheric methane include flooded rice (Oryza sativa L.) paddies. However, certain soil nutrient management and cultural practices offer opportunities to reduce methane emissions. The effect of application of ammonium thiosulphate, a potential source of nitrogen and sulphur and also an inhibitor of nitrification and urease on methane production and emission from flooded alluvial (Typic Haplaquept) rice soil in India, was examined. Methane production and emission from control and urea-amended soil samples were almost identical. Application of ammonium thiosulphate to laboratory-incubated flooded soil (30 and 60 μg N g⁻¹ soil) and flooded rice fields (45.6 and 60 kg N ha⁻¹) effected a distinct inhibition of methane production and emission. Ammonium thiosulphate stimulated the population of sulphate-reducing bacteria (SRB) to a greater extent at 60 μg N g⁻¹ soil than at 30 μg N g⁻¹ soil. In ammonium thiosulphate-applied rice field plots, mean methane efflux decreased by about 38 and 60% at 45.6 and 60 kg N ha⁻¹, respectively, over that of control. Inhibition of methane production by ammonium thiosulphate is, at least in part, due to the stimulation of SRB. Results suggest the mitigation potential of ammonium thiosulphate on methane emission from flooded rice paddies.     

Brazil's Balbina Dam: Environment versus the legacy of the Pharaohs in Amazonia

The Balbina Dam in Brazil's state of Amazonas floods 2360 km² of tropical forest to generate an average of only 112.2 MW of electricity. The flat topography and small size of the drainage basin make output small. Vegetation has been left to decompose in the reservoir, resulting in acidic, anoxic water that will corrode the turbines. The shallow reservoir contains 1500 islands and innumerable stagnant bays where the water's residence time will be even longer than the average time of over one year. Balbina was built to supply electricity to Manaus, a city that has grown so much while the dam was under construction that other alternatives are already needed. Government subsidies explain the explosive growth, including Brazil's unified tariff for electricity. Alternative power sources for Manaus include transmission from more distant dams or from recently discovered oil and natural gas deposits. Among Balbina's impacts are loss of potential use of the forest and displacement of about one third of the surviving members of a much-persecuted Amerindian tribe: the Waimiri-Atroari. The dam was closed on 1 October 1987 and the first of five generators began operation in February 1989. The example of Balbina points to important ways that the decision-making process could be improved in Brazil and in the international funding agencies that have directly and indirectly contributed to the project. Environmental impact analyses must be completed prior to decisions on overall project implementation and must be free of influence from project proponents. The current environmental impact assessment system in Brazil, as in many other countries, has an undesirable influence on science policy, in addition to failing to address the underlying causes of environmentally destructive development processes and inability to halt irreversible projects like Balbina.