Accounting for Uncertainty in Making Species Protection Decisions

Abstract:  Uncertainty gives rise to two decision errors in implementing the U.S. Endangered Species Act: listing species that are not in danger of extinction and delisting species that are in danger of extinction. I evaluated four methods (minimum standard, precautionary principle, minimax regret criterion, adaptive management) for deciding whether to list or delist a species when there is uncertainty about how those decisions are likely to influence survival of the species. A safe minimum standard criterion preserves some minimum amount or safe standard (population) of a species unless maintaining that amount generates unacceptable social cost. The precautionary principle favors not delisting a species when there is insufficient evidence on the efficacy of state management plans for protecting them. A minimax regret criterion selects the delisting decision that minimizes the maximum loss likely to occur under alternative ecosystem states. When the cost of making a correct decision is less than the cost of making an incorrect decision, the minimax regret criteria indicates that delisting is the optimal decision. Active adaptive management employs statistically valid experiments to test hypotheses about the likely impacts of delisting decisions. Safe minimum standard and minimax regret criterion are not compatible with the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The precautionary principle comes closest to describing how federal agencies make delisting decisions. Active adaptive management is scientifically superior to the other methods but is costly and time consuming and may not be compatible with the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act.     

Residential Radon in U.S. Counties V Lung Cancer in Women Who Predominantly Never Smoked

Previous studies have found that mean-residential-radon (Rn) levels for U.S. counties are negatively associated with age-adjusted county rates of lung-cancer mortality (LCM), after adjustments for potentially confounding factors. Those results may be due to (a) confounding unaddressable by any county-level (ecological) study design, or (b) county-level factors such as Rn/smoking or age/radon correlations or exposure misclassifications from the use of disparate data sources. Possibilities (b) were addressed by comparing age-specific LCM rates for white women in 2821 U.S. counties who died in 1950–54 at age 40+ (11% of whom ever smoked), or at age 60+ (% of whom ever smoked), to county Rn levels newly estimated from U.S. Rn, climatic and geological-survey data. Significant negative LCM v Rn trends were found for both age groups, after adjusting for age and subsets of 21 county-level socioeconomic, climatic and other factors. Negative trends were largest for counties with 100 Bq m^–3 Rn (p 0.00087; 420 analyses). Adjusted relative risk (RR_adj) for LCM was significantly elevated (1 < [95% conf. limits on RR_adj] 1.46) in 43 of 210 analyses comparing LCM rates in counties with > 150 Bq m^–3 v 65–100 Bq m^–3 Rn, most involving adjustment for climate- and education-related factors likely to have influenced exposure to indoor air contaminants such as Rn and cigarette smoke. Though inconclusive due to potential ecological-fallacy-related confounding that could not be controlled, results from this ecological study are most consistent with a U-shaped dose-response relationship between 1950–54 LCM risk and U.S. residential radon in white women who predominantly never smoked.     

Informing global environmental policy‐making: A plea for new methods of assessment and synthesis

Practice and research in assessment of global environmental change are dominated by two conventional assessment methods, formal models and expert panels. Models construct a representation of biophysical and socioU67830/xxlarge8208.gif" alt="dash" align="MIDDLE" BORDER="0">economic components of a policy issue, to project future trends or consequences of interventions. Panels articulate consensus views of policyU67830/xxlarge8208.gif" alt="dash" align="MIDDLE" BORDER="0">relevant knowledge through deliberations among selected experts. These methods make valuable contributions, but are weak in addressing certain kinds of knowledge needs that are typical of globalU67830/xxlarge8208.gif" alt="dash" align="MIDDLE" BORDER="0">change issues. To address these needs, a set of novel assessment methods is proposed that combine elements of representation and deliberation. These methods, of which policy exercises, simulationU67830/xxlarge8208.gif" alt="dash" align="MIDDLE" BORDER="0">gaming, and scenario exercises are examples, involve human participants in structured relevant decision and task settings. Relative to models and panels, these methods can more readily incorporate diverse perspectives, can integrate across broader collections of knowledge domains, and can both encourage creative insights and innovations, and provide tests of their relevance and practicality. Risks of bias, and of overU67830/xxlarge8208.gif" alt="dash" align="MIDDLE" BORDER="0">confident generalization from unique experiences, are effectively mitigated by critical debriefings, and appear no more severe than corresponding risks in conventional assessment methods, or in policyU67830/xxlarge8208.gif" alt="dash" align="MIDDLE" BORDER="0">makersU67830/xxlarge8217.gif" alt="rsquo" align="BASELINE" BORDER="0"> generalizations from historical experience. While serious development and implementation challenges remain, early experience suggests that these methods can offer useful ideas and insights for policyU67830/xxlarge8208.gif" alt="dash" align="MIDDLE" BORDER="0">making that are not available through other means.     

粤西残斑岩的锆石U-Pb年龄及其地质意义

粤西残斑岩脉是由花岗斑岩脉遭受后期地质作用改造而成的 ,具有片状构造 ,片理产状与地层围岩一致。通过对该残斑岩的颗粒锆石U -Pb年龄测定 ,莸得两条不一致线 ,它们的下交点年龄分别为 40 4±6Ma和 42 8± 17Ma ,从而确定残斑岩脉的侵入年龄为 40 4～ 42 8Ma ,属加里东期。根据上交点年龄和2 0 7Pb/2 0 6Pb年龄推断 ,其源区物质较复杂 ,包含有 1737Ma、2 16 5Ma和 2 494Ma的物质 ,暗示粤西云开隆起区存在中、古元古代以及太古宙基底。     

U型夹箍自动滚弯成形

介绍了洗衣机U型夹箍自动滚弯成形新工艺。采用钢带经校平、成U形截面、弯圆形、切断 ,压连接端自动连续成形。不但生产效率高 ,产品质量稳定 ,而且大大减轻了工人的劳动强度 ,节省了生产空间。     

广西灌阳县观音阁响水洞的形成环境及1号石笋的古气候信息

本文根据灌阳县响水洞的成洞地质条件、生态环境以及洞穴的组成等 ,论述了洞穴的形成、发育过程。通过对响水洞 1号石笋的铀系测年 ,碳氧同位素及沉积 (间断 )纹层分析 ,获得了距今 4 4.0～ 3 .1ka高分辨率古气候演变信息。反映 4 4.0ka以来区内经历了严寒 (晚大理冰期 )、冰期后干冷和温热 (间夹短暂的冷期 )等气候变化 ,为确定响水洞的形成时代和环境提供了科学依据。     

美军航母腐蚀控制技术体系的发展研究

从航母腐蚀控制技术体系这一航母应用技术的微小分支见微知著,对世界最强海军航母技术的发展历程、理念、思路、体制以及方向进行深入探究分析,以走出具有中国特色的航母技术发展之路。通过对美军航母腐蚀控制新材料与新工艺的应用、腐蚀控制在舰船全寿命周期应用、腐蚀控制技术体系发展理念、腐蚀控制技术体系科研体制创新的研究,对美军航母腐蚀控制技术体系进行深入了解。     

Potential Effects of the United States-Mexico Border Fence on Wildlife

Abstract:  Security infrastructure along international boundaries threatens to degrade connectivity for wildlife. To explore potential effects of a fence under construction along the U.S.–Mexico border on wildlife, we assessed movement behavior of two species with different life histories whose regional persistence may depend on transboundary movements. We used radiotelemetry to assess how vegetation and landscape structure affect flight and natal dispersal behaviors of Ferruginous Pygmy-Owls ( Glaucidium brasilianum ), and satellite telemetry, gene-flow estimates, and least-cost path models to assess movement behavior and interpopulation connectivity of desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis mexicana ). Flight height of Pygmy-Owls averaged only 1.4 m (SE 0.1) above ground, and only 23% of flights exceeded 4 m. Juvenile Pygmy-Owls dispersed at slower speeds, changed direction more, and had lower colonization success in landscapes with larger vegetation openings or higher levels of disturbance ( p ≤ 0.047), which suggests large vegetation gaps coupled with tall fences may limit transboundary movements. Female bighorn sheep crossed valleys up to 4.9 km wide, and microsatellite analyses indicated relatively high levels of gene flow and migration (95% CI for F_ST= 0.010–0.115, Nm = 1.9–24.8, M = 10.4–15.4) between populations divided by an 11-km valley. Models of gene flow based on regional topography and movement barriers suggested that nine populations of bighorn sheep in northwestern Sonora are linked by dispersal with those in neighboring Arizona. Disruption of transboundary movement corridors by impermeable fencing would isolate some populations on the Arizona side. Connectivity for other species with similar movement abilities and spatial distributions may be affected by border development, yet mitigation strategies could address needs of wildlife and humans.     

NEW METHODS OF MODELING WATER AVAILABILITY FOR AGRICULTURE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE: THE U.S. CORNBELT1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on new methods of linking climate change scenarios with hydrologic, agricultural an water planning models to study future water availability for agriculture, an essential element of sustainability. The study is based on the integration of models of water supply and demand, and of crop growth and irrigation management. Consistent modeling assumptions, available databases, and scenario simulations are used to capture a range of possible future conditions. The linked models include WATBAL for water supply; CERES, SOYGRO, and CROPWAT for crop and irrigation modeling; and WEAP for water demand forecasting, planning and evaluation. These models are applied to the U.S. Cornbelt using forecasts of climate change, agricultural production, population and GDP growth. Results suggest that, at least in the near term, the relative abundance of water for agriculture can be maintained under climate change conditions. However, increased water demands from urban growth, increases in reservoir evaporation and increases in crop consumptive use must be accommodated by timely improvements in crop, irrigation and drainage technology, water management, and institutions. These improvements are likely to require substantial resources and expertise. In the highly irrigated basins of the region, irrigation demand greatly exceeds industrial and municipal demands. When improvements in irrigation efficiency are tested, these basins respond by reducing demand and lessening environmental stress with an improvement in system reliability, effects particularly evident under a high technology scenario. Rain-fed lands in the Cornbelt are not forced to invest in irrigation, but there is some concern about increased water-logging during the spring and consequent required increased investment in agricultural drainage. One major water region in the Cornbelt also provides a useful caveat: change will not necessarily be continuous and monotonic. Under one GCM scenario for the 2010s, the region shows a significant decrease in system reliability, while the scenario for the 2020s shows an increase.     

Implementing Ecosystem Management in Public Agencies: Lessons from the U.S. Bureau of Land Management and the Forest Service

Abstract:  Ecosystem management was formally adopted over a decade ago by many U.S. natural resource agencies, including the Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management. This approach calls for management based on stakeholder collaboration; interagency cooperation; integration of scientific, social, and economic information; preservation of ecological processes; and adaptive management. Results of previous studies indicate differences in the extent to which particular components of ecosystem management would be implemented within the U.S. Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management and suggest a number of barriers thought to impede implementation. Drawing on survey and interview data from agency personnel and stakeholders, we compared levels of ecosystem-management implementation in the Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management and identified the most important barriers to implementation. Agency personnel perceived similarly high levels of implementation on many ecosystem-management components, whereas stakeholders perceived lower levels. Agencies were most challenged by implementation of preservation of ecological processes, adaptive management, and integration of social and economic information, whereas the most significant barriers to implementation were political, cultural, and legal.