The Challenge of Bridging Science and Policy in the Baltic Sea Eutrophication Governance in Finland: The perspective of Science

This article examines the views of scientists on intricacies of scientific knowledge that affect science–policy interface in the Baltic Sea eutrophication governance in Finland. The analysis demonstrates that these intricacies can be divided into five categories: (1) uncertainty of knowledge concerning ecological processes, (2) heterogeneity of knowledge, (3) societal and political call for (certain) knowledge, (4) contingency of the knowledge that ends up taken as a baseline for decision making and further research, and (5) linkages of knowledge production, processing, and communication to particular characteristics of individual researchers and research societies. By explicating these aspects, this article illustrates the ways in which scientific knowledge concerning eutrophication is human-bound and susceptible to interpretation, thus adding on to the uncertainty of the Baltic Sea environmental governance. The aim is, then, to open up perspectives on how ambiguities related to science–policy interface could be coped with.     

雾霾污染的城市间动态关联及其成因研究

面对严重的雾霾天气以及雾霾污染边界不断扩张的严峻挑战,加快创新大气污染联防联控体系以形成跨区域协同治污合力势在必行。本文基于京津冀、长三角、珠三角、成渝、长中游等五大地区96个城市2015年的空气质量指数(AQI)以及PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_2、CO、NO_2、O~3等6种分项污染物的逐日数据,从时间序列数据"预测能力"的视角,在向量自回归模型框架下识别雾霾污染的城市间动态交互影响效应,运用社会网络分析方法刻画雾霾污染空间关联的网络结构特征。在此基础上,运用二次指派程序从分项污染物视角考察雾霾污染空间关联的关键诱因,并利用双变量Moran指数揭示雾霾污染与其影响因素之间的空间相关性。研究发现,城市雾霾污染之间存在普遍的动态关联关系且呈现出联系紧密、稳定性强、带有明显特征的多线程复杂网络结构形态。不论在地区内部还是在全部样本城市当中,均不存在孤立的城市节点,这意味着面对雾霾污染的空间关联网络,任何一个城市都不能独善其身,均受到来自地区内部和地区以外其他城市以及它们构成的空间关联网络的影响。在六种分项污染物中,PM_(2.5)的空间关联是导致雾霾污染空间关联的最主要诱因。城市雾霾污染与其影响因素尤其是城市人口密度、投资强度、工业污染排放之间存在显著的空间相关性。基于上述结论,中国应当加快构建以防控PM_(2.5)为重点的跨区域雾霾污染协同治理机制,并将其融入城市群发展战略以及区域发展战略之中,最终实现包含雾霾污染协同治理在内的全方位的区域协同发展。     

农村水环境治理行动的演化博弈分析

新常态下,我国环境承载力已经达到或接近上限,农村水环境也存在着"边治理、边污染"和地方政府监管乏力问题,究其根源是缺乏农村水环境治理的内生机制,在中央政府投入大量精力、财力的同时,其他利益相关主体却存在不同利益诉求和行为导向冲突,因而厘清农村水环境治理行动中的主体博弈关系有助于突破此现实困境,形成良好的行动机制。本文利用演化博弈模型,分析了地方政府、企业和农户三方博弈主体在农村水环境治理行动中的演化过程。研究结果表明,系统演化具有多重复杂情景,在良好的演化情景下,只要农户参与治理的意愿高,地方政府最终将趋向于引导行动,企业也相应选择净化策略,三方实现共同治理,农村水环境质量将得到显著改善;相反地,在不良演化情景下,即使农户愿意参与治理、或企业愿意采取净化策略,都无法得到地方政府的支持和系统中其他主体的响应,系统将锁定于不良状态,最终造成农村水环境治理的"公地悲剧";在一般情景下,通过调节各方策略的参数值,发现只要地方政府和企业联合起来致力于通过一系列引导和扶持策略保障农户从参与农村水环境治理中获得切实利益,可使系统跳出不良状态,形成三方共同治理的良好局面。实例分析结果进一步验证了只要政府和企业联合行动以切实保障农户的利益,就有利于促进农村水环境质量提升。据此提出促进三方共同参与、保障农户利益的农村水环境治理行动对策建议。     

水权市场研究述评与中国特色水权市场研究展望

水权水市场改革是我国水资源管理改革的重要内容,也是当前我国资源环境研究领域的热点之一。我国水权市场尚未发育完成,水权交易还未成体系,更缺乏水权交易的制度体系和技术支撑。国内外的研究表明,有效运作的水权市场,需要具备产权明晰、计量监测技术支撑、监管制度完善等多方面的条件,同时也会受到交易成本、第三方效应、社会文化等多方面的影响;从已有的水权交易模型来看,国内学者基本上是沿用了西方发展起来的水权交易模型,很少考虑中国国情因素。总体来看,国内水权水市场研究目前存在三个方面的主要缺陷。第一,在水权市场发展的规律研究方面,过于强调市场的作用和市场制度本身,对水权市场运作的内在机制认识不足;第二,在水权市场的国际经验借鉴方面,过于强调个别国家的"先进经验",对水权市场发展的教训和伴随的问题认识不足;第三,在水权交易和市场制度建设过程中,过于强调理想意义上的自由市场模式,对国情条件的制约和中国特色的因素认识不足。当前亟需开展更为深入的研究,系统探索中国国情因素对水权市场构建的影响,重点揭示中国特色的水权市场制度体系特征,提出中国情境下的水权交易模式、交易规则、水权监管制度以及与国情条件相适应的水价政策。通过理论集成和知识创新,增进对中国特色水权市场制度的理解,为水资源管理体制改革和水资源的可持续利用提供研究支撑。     

Headwater Influences on Downstream Water Quality

We investigated the influence of riparian and whole watershed land use as a function of stream size on surface water chemistry and assessed regional variation in these relationships. Sixty-eight watersheds in four level III U.S. EPA ecoregions in eastern Kansas were selected as study sites. Riparian land cover and watershed land use were quantified for the entire watershed, and by Strahler order. Multiple regression analyses using riparian land cover classifications as independent variables explained among-site variation in water chemistry parameters, particularly total nitrogen (41%), nitrate (61%), and total phosphorus (63%) concentrations. Whole watershed land use explained slightly less variance, but riparian and whole watershed land use were so tightly correlated that it was difficult to separate their effects. Water chemistry parameters sampled in downstream reaches were most closely correlated with riparian land cover adjacent to the smallest (first-order) streams of watersheds or land use in the entire watershed, with riparian zones immediately upstream of sampling sites offering less explanatory power as stream size increased. Interestingly, headwater effects were evident even at times when these small streams were unlikely to be flowing. Relationships were similar among ecoregions, indicating that land use characteristics were most responsible for water quality variation among watersheds. These findings suggest that nonpoint pollution control strategies should consider the influence of small upland streams and protection of downstream riparian zones alone is not sufficient to protect water quality.     

Application of an Environmental Decision Support System to a Water Quality Trading Program Affected by Surface Water Diversions

Environmental decision support systems (EDSSs) are an emerging tool used to integrate the evaluation of highly complex and interrelated physicochemical, biological, hydrological, social, and economic aspects of environmental problems. An EDSS approach is developed to address hot-spot concerns for a water quality trading program intended to implement the total maximum daily load (TMDL) for phosphorus in the Non-Tidal Passaic River Basin of New Jersey. Twenty-two wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) spread throughout the watershed are considered the major sources of phosphorus loading to the river system. Periodic surface water diversions to a major reservoir from the confluence of two key tributaries alter the natural hydrology of the watershed and must be considered in the development of a trading framework that ensures protection of water quality. An EDSS is applied that enables the selection of a water quality trading framework that protects the watershed from phosphorus-induced hot spots. The EDSS employs Simon’s (1960) three stages of the decision-making process: intelligence, design, and choice. The identification of two potential hot spots and three diversion scenarios enables the delineation of three management areas for buying and selling of phosphorus credits among WWTPs. The result shows that the most conservative option entails consideration of two possible diversion scenarios, and trading between management areas is restricted accordingly. The method described here is believed to be the first application of an EDSS to a water quality trading program that explicitly accounts for surface water diversions.     

Definition Procedures Have Little Effect on Performance of Environmental Classifications of Streams and Rivers

Mapped environmental classifications are defined using various procedures, but there has been little evaluation of the differences in their ability to discriminate variation in independent ecological characteristics. We tested the performance of environmental classifications of the streams and rivers of France that had been defined from the same environmental data using geographic regionalization and numerical classification of individual river valley segments. Test data comprised invertebrate assemblages, water chemistry, and hydrological indexes obtained from sites throughout France. Classification performance was measured by analysis of similarity (ANOSIM). Geometric regions defined by a regular grid and without regard to environmental variables and a posteriori classifications based on clustering the test datasets defined lower and upper bounds of performance for a given number of classes. Differences in classification performances were generally small. The ANOSIM statistics for the a posteriori classifications were around twice that of all environmental classifications, including geometrically defined regions. The hydro-ecoregions performed slightly better for the invertebrate data and the network classification performed slightly better for the chemistry and hydrological data. Our results indicate that environmental classifications that are defined using different procedures can be comparable in terms of their ability to discriminate variation of ecological characteristics and that alleged differences in performance arising from different classification procedures can be small relative to unexplained variation. We conclude that definition procedures might have little effect on the performance of large-scale environmental classifications and decisions over which procedures to use should be based primarily on pragmatic considerations.     

Climate adaptation in fragmented governance settings: the consequences of reform in public administration

The impact of dominant trends in public administration, such as decentralisation and privatisation on complex collective challenges is insufficiently understood. This is relevant in settings where climate change impacts become manifest at local level, and where financing power resides at national level but decisions are made more locally in a fragmented institutional setting. This study assists in overcoming this gap by analysing how the institutional context (i.e. a decentralised, privatised, fragmented setting) influences the capacity to address climate change challenges in a vulnerable area (the South Devon coast in the UK). There has been little action to address expected climate change impacts in this vulnerable stretch of coast. A lack of clarity around responsibility for addressing climate impacts and a lack of a deliberative structure between various actors involved, within a context of austerity, hamper climate change adaptation. The findings question whether decentralised decision making is sufficient for addressing climate adaptation challenges.     

社会组织参与区域合作治理进化博弈模型

社会多元化与公民社会的快速发展,促使社会组织参与社会治理和应急响应的诉求与能力日益加强,驱动着政府职能变革和区域治理方式创新。区域合作治理过程中,治理主体依据情景态势调整策略,影响其他主体的治理收益和策略选择,形成复杂的动态博弈关系。本文把握政府与社会组织的动态博弈行为特征,确定区域合作治理的博弈支付矩阵与复制动态方程,构建区域政府与社会组织合作治理进化博弈模型。分析得出5个可能的均衡点,通过雅可比矩阵分析均衡点的稳定性,可知政府与社会组织合作治理进化博弈的长期稳定策略集为{(合作,合作),(不合作,不合作)}。模型结果分析表明,合作收益直接影响着博弈稳定策略的进化方向,收益大于成本是政府与社会组织选择合作策略的必要条件,任一方的合作收益小于成本,选择独立行动是双方的占优策略,最终的策略选择与政府和社会组织合作所获取的超额收益、支付成本及合作水平密切相关。合作超额收益增加或合作水平提升时,博弈系统向(合作,合作)演化的概率加大;合作成本增加时,博弈系统向(不合作,不合作)演化的概率加大。制度规范不健全、组织信任缺失、社会组织力量薄弱等因素影响进化均衡结果,社会组织创新发展氛围尚未形成、自组织性和自律性内生动力不足,是制约社会组织参与合作治理的关键问题。基于此,提出社会组织参与区域合作治理的协调机制及培育机制,具体策略包括:明确权责关系、畅通参与渠道、创新合作形式,以及优化管理制度、让渡成长空间和树立社会公信。     

地方政府生态环境治理注意力研究——基于30个省市政府工作报告(2006—2015)文本分析

注意力代表着政府决策者对特定事务的关注,注意力的变化是政府决策选择变化的直接原因。环境治理注意力是环境治理进入议程设置,进而出台政策、实施治理的前提。政府工作报告是政府进行资源配置与精力投入的指挥棒,也是"政府将重视什么、哪些领域得到更多投入资源"的通知书和承诺书,它是政府注意力分配或者变化的重要载体。本文收集了30个省市地方政府自2006年到2015年共300份工作报告,通过文本分析方法,试图发现地方政府生态环境治理注意力的变化规律。分析结果呈现:1从时间轴上看,地方政府对于生态环境的注意力强度逐渐增加;2从地域轴上看,东、中、西部政府生态环境注意力差距并不明显,相比而言,中部处于一个稍低的位次;3从生态环境的范畴看,具体领域得到进一步扩展,中央与地方对环境具体事务保持了较高的一致性,注意力的变化与决策环境和中央宏观政策有重要相关关系。尽管在某些时间点,某些地域存在离散点,但总体而言,在中央政府强调经济发展需要与当地环境资源承载能力相协调的大背景下,地方政府将注意力大幅转向民生事务和生态环境。鉴于地方领导人任期以及注意力本身的"易变性",要保持地方政府环境治理注意力的强度和持续性,1增加制度供给,使环境治理成为法治常项;2将环境治理在公共事务治理的排序中前置,将环境治理放在突出位置;3提升环境事件的信息强度,向地方政府传导积极的环境治理压力。