基于复合应力加速寿命试验的高速列车电子产品可靠度计算方法研究

目的 解决目前加速寿命试验一般不用于估计产品可靠度,而采用可靠性预计和应力-强度模型计算可靠度时可能存在因参数误差而影响其估计精度的问题.方法 提出一种基于加速寿命试验的高速列车电子产品使用可靠度计算方法,采用温度、湿度、振动综合应力和广义Egring模型对高速列车电子产品开展加速寿命试验.结果 通过试验数据可评估出产...     

A novel tool for Bayesian reliability analysis using AHP as a framework for prior elicitation

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is a powerful and popular technique to support risk-based decisions. Unfortunately, QRAs are often hampered by significant uncertainty in the frequency of failure estimation for physical assets. This uncertainty is largely due to lack of quality failure data in published sources. The failure data may be limited, incompatible and/or outdated. Consequently, there is a need for robust methods and tools that can incorporate all available information to facilitate reliability analysis of critical assets such as pipelines, pressure vessels, rotating equipment, etc. This paper presents a novel practical approach that can be used to help overcome data scarcity issues in reliability analysis. A Bayesian framework is implemented to cohesively integrate objective data with expert opinion with the aim toward deriving time to failure distributions for physical assets. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is utilized to aggregate time to failure estimates from multiple experts to minimize biases and address inconsistencies in their estimates. These estimates are summarized in the form of informative priors that are implemented in a Bayesian update procedure for the Weibull distribution. The flexibility of the proposed methodology allows for efficiently dealing with data limitations. Application of the proposed approach is illustrated using a case study.     

安全联锁设备SIL验证中的参数估计偏差分析

为提高安全联锁系统(SIS)不可用度计算的准确性,减少SIL验证的不确定性偏差,研究参数估计置信度分别为70％和90％时功能安全标准IEC61508的恒定失效率算法与实际非恒定失效率(威布尔分布)算法结果的偏差.结果表明:在70％置信度时,采用指数分布算法计算PFDavg,比威布尔分布算法的计算结果偏大,2者的相对偏差...     

A COMPARISON OF METHODS FOR ESTIMATING LOW FLOW CHARACTERISTICS OF STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Four methods for estimating the 7-day, 10-year and 7-day, 20-year low flows for streams are compared by the bootstrap method. The bootstrap method is a Monte Carlo technique in which random samples are drawn from an unspecified sampling distribution defined from observed data. The nonparametric nature of the bootstrap makes it suitable for comparing methods based on a flow series for which the true distribution is unknown. Results show that the two methods based on hypothetical distributions (Log-Pearson III and Weibull) had lower mean square errors than did the Box-Cox transformation method or the Log-Boughton method which is based on a fit of plotting positions.     

Wind energy potential assessment and techno-economic performance of wind turbines in coastal sites of Buenos Aires province,Argentina

An assessment of wind energy potential was carried out in five sites (four onshore and one offshore) in South-West (SW) of Buenos Aires province (Argentina). We use high-resolution wind data (2 and 5 min) for the period 2009–2012. The power law was used to estimate the wind speed at 30, 40, and 60 m height from the anemometer position. Turbulence intensity and wind direction were analyzed. Statistical analyses were conducted using two-parameter Weibull distribution. A techno-economic analysis based on a set of commercial wind turbines was performed in those sites. The results derived from this work indicate that the SW of Buenos Aires province represents a promising area for the wind energy extraction, which would encourage the construction of wind farms for electricity generation.     

Influence of aerobic and anaerobic conditions on survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium in Luria-Bertani broth, farm-yard manure and slurry

The influence of aerobic and anaerobic conditions on the survival of the enteropathogens Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Salmonella serovar Typhimurium was investigated in microcosms with broth, cattle manure or slurry. These substrates were inoculated with a green fluorescent protein transformed strain of the enteropathogens at 10(7) cells g(-1) dry weight. Survival data was fitted to the Weibull model. The survival curves in aerobic conditions generally showed a concave curvature, while the curvature was convex in anaerobic conditions. The estimated survival times showed that E. coli O157:H7 survived significantly longer under anaerobic than under aerobic conditions. Survival ranged from approximately. 2 weeks for aerobic manure and slurry to more than six months for anaerobic manure at 16 °C. On average, in 56.3% of the samplings, the number of recovered E. coli O157:H7 cells by anaerobic incubation of Petri plates was significantly (p < 0.05) higher in comparison with aerobic incubation. Survival of Salmonella serovar Typhimurium was not different between aerobic and anaerobic storage of LB broth or manure as well as between aerobic and anaerobic incubation of Petri dishes. The importance of changes in microbial community and chemical composition of manure and slurry was distinguished for the survival of E. coli O157:H7 in different oxygen conditions.