面向北京冬奥会的态势感知与指挥体系研究*

为全面掌控北京冬奥会运行情况,结合冬奥会概况构建具有全局全过程态势感知能力与指挥体系的运行保障系统。系统阐述冬奥会指挥体系构建的出发点、特点和要求,分析冬奥会态势感知构建基础框架,包括所需数据类型、层级体系和态势汇总共享技术要求。研究表明:体系充分考虑冬奥会及城市运行特点,是冬奥会顺利举办的重要保障,可为冬奥会提供系统构建指导,并为未来大型活动与城市运行态势感知体系构建提供理论支持。     

南通市冬季PM2.5中水溶性离子污染特征

根据南通市2016和2017年冬季大气多参数站自动监测PM2.5数据和在线离子色谱分析仪Marga监测的PM2.5中水溶性离子数据,分析了南通市冬季PM2.5中水溶性离子污染特征。结果表明,南通市2016和2017年冬季,ρ(PM2.5)分别为58和54μg/m 3,均高出其年均值(14μg/m^3);ρ(水溶性离子)总占ρ(PM2.5)百分比分别为74.5%和74.3%;二次离子ρ(NO3^-、SO4^2-和NH4^+)占ρ(PM2.5)百分比分别为66.8%和66.6%;各水溶性离子占比大小依次为:NO3^-、SO4^2-、NH4^+、Cl^-、K^+、Na^+、Ca^2+、Mg^2+。对ρ(NO3^-)/ρ(SO 4^2-)分析表明,移动源已经成为南通市冬季的主要污染源,且呈逐年增强趋势。对氯氧化率和硫氧化率的分析表明,南通市冬季存在较明显的二次污染,SO2的转化程度大于NO2。除Na^+和Mg^2+外,其他离子与PM2.5均呈显著相关性,NO3^-、SO4^2-与NH4^+之间的相关系数最高,Cl^-与除Na^+外的所有阳离子均呈显著相关性。     

Local and regional variability in snow conditions in northern Finland: A reindeer herding perspective

Weather station measurements were used to force the SNOWPACK snow model and combined with reindeer herders’ experiences to study the local and regional variations in snow conditions in a Finnish reindeer herding area for the 1981–2010 period. Winter conditions varied significantly between the four selected herding districts and between open and forest environments within the districts. The highest snow depths and densities, the thicknesses of ground ice, and the lengths of snow cover period were generally found in the northernmost districts. The snow depths showed the strongest regional coherence, whereas the thicknesses of ground ice were weakly correlated among the districts. The local variation in snow depths was higher than the regional variation and limits for rare or exceptional events varied notably between different districts and environments. The results highlight that forests diversify snow and foraging conditions, e.g., ground ice rarely forms simultaneously in different environments. Sufficient and diverse forest pastures are important during the critical winter season if reindeer herding is pursued on natural grazing grounds also in the future.     

Improving simulations of sulfate aerosols during winter haze over Northern China: the impacts of heterogeneous oxidation by NO2

Incorporating the missing heterogeneous oxidation of S(IV) by NO₂ into the WRF-Chem model. Sulfate production is not sensitive to increase in SO₂ emission. The newly added reaction reproduces sulfate concentrations well during winter haze. We implemented the online coupled WRF-Chem model to reproduce the 2013 January haze event in North China, and evaluated simulated meteorological and chemical fields using multiple observations. The comparisons suggest that temperature and relative humidity (RH) were simulated well (mean biases are -0.2K and 2.7%, respectively), but wind speeds were overestimated (mean bias is 0.5 m?s⁻¹). At the Beijing station, sulfur dioxide (SO₂) concentrations were overpredicted and sulfate concentrations were largely underpredicted, which may result from uncertainties in SO₂ emissions and missing heterogeneous oxidation in current model. We conducted three parallel experiments to examine the impacts of doubling SO₂ emissions and incorporating heterogeneous oxidation of dissolved SO₂ by nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) on sulfate formation during winter haze. The results suggest that doubling SO₂ emissions do not significantly affect sulfate concentrations, but adding heterogeneous oxidation of dissolved SO₂ by NO₂ substantially improve simulations of sulfate and other inorganic aerosols. Although the enhanced SO₂ to sulfate conversion in the HetS (heterogeneous oxidation by NO₂) case reduces SO₂ concentrations, it is still largely overestimated by the model, indicating the overestimations of SO₂ concentrations in the North China Plain (NCP) are mostly due to errors in SO₂ emission inventory.     

The impact of global warming on winter tourism and skiing: a regionalised model for Austrian snow conditions

Possible climate change will modify snow-cover depth and change the characteristics of winter tourism and skiing districts. Our model describes seasonal snow-cover depth related to altitude in six Alpine climate regions as the best fit of all snow stations. Data cover 30 winter seasons (November to April values) from 1965 to 1995. We modified the data according to a scenario of temperature and precipitation change (2 °C warming, no precipitation change) and achieve a new simulated snow-cover depth. The indicators MARP (mean altitude of resident population) and MASPSL (mean altitude of starting point of ski lifts) serve as references for “critical altitudes” of Austrian districts. A warming implies a reduction of snow in all districts, but the loss is overproportional in lower altitudes. The direction of economic impacts is clear – income losses and adaptation costs – but magnitude and time frames remain uncertain. Received: 24 February 1999 · Accepted: 15 May 1999     

Influence of conservation tillage on winter bird use of arable fields in Hungary

Bird use of conservation tillage-established (CT—seedbed preparation without soil inversion) crops was assessed at two adjacent sites in western Hungary, in comparison with conventionally established (mouldboard ploughed—P) fields. Bird abundance was assessed in a typical rotation of spring-sown maize and winter wheat in three consecutive winters. In the first winter, several species and the guild of seed-eating passerines were significantly more abundant on CT established plots, in both crop types. In the second winter, only starlings were more abundant on CT plots. In the third winter, only skylarks favoured CT over P plots. In combination with agri-environment scheme measures designed to provide resources for biodiversity, conservation tillage could play a role in softening the impact of agriculture on farmland birds in Hungary and elsewhere in Eastern Europe, in addition to its potential for reducing soil erosion and diffuse pollution.     

Potential influence of overwintering benthic algae on water quality

Overwintering benthic algae not only directly impact drinking water safety, but also affect the algae recruitment in warm spring seasons. Thus, understanding the characteristics of overwintering benthic algae can provide scientific references for formulating preventative strategies of reasonable water resource. However, they have received less attention. In this study, the spatiotemporal variation of benthic algae and their harmful secondary metabolites were studied from autumn to summer in Qing...     

城市扩展过程对湿地影响的情景模拟研究——以河北怀来为例

在复杂多变的环境下,情景模拟法因其能考虑突发干扰的影响并能聚焦长期规划而表现出突出的优势。怀来是北京重要的水源地和环境保护屏障,2022年北京-张家口冬奥会的筹办将可能加快怀来的经济发展和城市扩展,进而对湿地的空间压力产生重要影响。因此,论文利用情景模拟法,结合城市扩展模型（land use scenario dynamics-urban,LUSD-urban）和湿地空间压力模型,模拟了趋势外推、城市规划和冬奥会3种情景下怀来未来城市扩展对湿地的空间压力。结果显示城市扩展导致怀来湿地空间压力增大,湿地平均压力从2000年的0.399增加到2013年的0.439,增长了10.03%。同时,湿地空间压力高于0.5的像元比例从6.73%增加到17.42%。3种情景下,2013—2030年怀来的湿地空间压力将增长0.002~0.005。冬奥会的举办将为怀来湿地带来更大的空间压力,冬奥会情景下湿地压力的热点区面积最大,为83.74 km²,是3种情景下共有热点区面积的1.44倍,新保安镇、土木镇和沙城镇的非城市用地面临的空间压力较大。因此,怀来县在未来制定城市规划时应充分考虑县内湿地生态系统,在保护湿地资源的基础上有效促进经济的发展。     

北京冬奥会同期空气污染数值模拟

第24届冬季奥运会将于2022年2月4—20日在我国北京市和河北省张家口市联合举办,主要会场有北京奥体中心、北京延庆县和张家口市崇礼县.为了模拟分析冬奥会空气质量情况,利用冬奥会同期(2006—2016年2月)北京市和张家口市空气质量资料及韩国气象厅天气图资料(2013—2016年2月),分析该时段重污染发生的频次,统计不利于污染物扩散的天气形势出现概率及污染传输路径,并结合嵌套网格空气质量预报模式(NAPQMS),评估不同减排方案对ρ(PM_2.5)的影响.结果表明:① 2006—2016年冬奥会同期,北京奥体中心和延庆县发生重污染天气的概率分别为17%和9%,污染发生的风险频率为北京奥体中心>延庆县>张家口市,并且北京奥体中心和延庆县在2月13—16日易出现持续的重污染天气过程;② 2013—2016年2月不利于污染扩散的天气形势出现概率较为频繁,尤其在850 hPa高度和地面,不利天气形势出现的概率分别为35%和41%;地面偏南风易将在北京西南方滞留较长时间的污染气团沿太行山输送至北京;③ 冬奥会期间,若于2月2—12日及17—20日将京津冀及周边城市污染物排放量在当前的基础上减排50%、2月13—16日减排75%,将可能不出现重污染日.严格控制北京及周边地区的大气污染物排放是保障冬奥会期间空气质量的必要措施.      

冬奥会期间京津冀及周边区域空气质量时空特征、气象影响和减排效果评估

对比分析2015～2022年冬奥会期间(1月31日至2月20日)京津冀及周边区域44城市空气质量时空演变特征,量化同期气象、协同减排和跨区域传输对PM_2.5浓度及组分变化贡献,为不利气象条件下区域空气质量联防联控提供科学参考.结果表明,2022年44城市PM_2.5浓度为近8年农历同期最低(46μg·m^-3),优良天占比最高(83.3%),不存在重污染天.PM_2.5污染南重北轻,高值区主要集中在太行山沿线及燕山传输通道城市.2016年在春节中期未管控烟花爆竹燃放等源排放强度下,优良天占比93.5%,大气强扩散能力对空气质量改善至关重要.2022年静稳天气指数(SWI)同比增加2.1,大气扩散能力转差,44城市ρ(PM_2.5)均值和峰值同比下降14μg·m^-3和76μg·m^-3,北京减排对PM_2.5浓度降幅较未采取前增大96%,晋鲁豫地区在气象造成PM_2.5浓度上升的不利背景下,峰值下降87μg...