Understanding world metals prices—Returns,volatility and diversification

In recent times, the prices of internationally traded metals have reached record highs and there is considerable uncertainty regarding their future. This phenomenon is partially driven by strong demand from a small number of emerging economies, such as China and India. This paper uses a long time-series (1900–2007) on 21 metals prices to investigate their properties, and presents unique features of their volatility, including a decomposition into within- and between-group components. If most volatility is commodity-specific rather than “global”, then metals-exporting dependent economies can smooth income via diversification.     

Transboundary governance of the Curonian Spit World Heritage Site

This study describes the governance and management structures of the Curonian Spit World Heritage Site, a transboundary protected area shared by Lithuania and the Russian Federation. Focusing on the national park authorities it presents the site from a local administrative perspective. The paper shows that due to strong state level influence and a lack of full stakeholder inclusion, different philosophies and priorities on both sides of the border challenge common management efforts and co-operation. Presenting the existing problems the paper points out the need for increased efforts at the state level as well as for the full inclusion of local communities to remove obstacles and foster co-operation. Hence, by adapting to certain environmental and transboundary governance principles, conflicts can be avoided and better results achieved.     

Parental phenols exposure and spontaneous abortion in Chinese population residing in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

Widespread use of phenols has led to ubiquitous exposure to phenols. In experimental animals, phenols increased resorptions, reduced live litter size and fetal body weights. However, there are limited epidemiological evidences of the relationships between exposure to phenols and pregnancy outcomes. We evaluated the associations between parental urinary levels of various phenols and spontaneous abortion in a Chinese population residing in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. A case-control study was conducted that included 70 case couples with medically unexplained spontaneous abortion and 180 control couples who did not have a history of spontaneous abortion and had at least one living child. Both parental urinary phenols were measured by ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry including bisphenol A (BPA), benzophenone-3 (BP-3), 2,3,4-trichlorophenol (2,3,4-TCP), pentachlorophenol (PCP), 4-n-octylphenol (4-n-OP) and 4-n-nonylphenol (4-n-NP). Compared with the low exposure group, there was an increased risk of spontaneous abortion with high paternal urinary PCP concentration [odds ratio (OR) = 2.09, 95% Confidence Interval (CI), 1.05–4.14], and maternal exposure to 4-n-OP and alkylphenol(s) also significantly increased the risk of spontaneous abortion (OR = 2.21, 95% CI, 1.02–4.80; OR = 2.81, 95% CI, 1.39–5.65, respectively). Our study firstly provides the evidence that paternal PCP exposure, maternal 4-n-OP and alkylphenol(s) exposure are associated with spontaneous abortion in humans.     

Development and application of LC–APCI–MS method for biomonitoring of animal and human exposure to imidacloprid

Imidacloprid (IMI) is a relatively new neuro-active neonicotinoid insecticide and nowadays one of the largest selling insecticides worldwide. In the present study a LC–APCI–MS based method was developed and validated for the quantification of imidacloprid and its main metabolite 6-chloronicotinic acid (6-CINA) in urine and hair specimens. The method was tested in biomonitoring of intentionally exposed animals and subsequently applied for biomonitoring of Cretan urban and rural population.     

Analysis of bank erosion on the Merced River,Yosemite Valley,Yosemite National Park,California, USA

Channel changes from 1919 to 1989 were documented in two study reaches of the Merced River in Yosemite National Park through a review of historical photographs and documents and a comparison of survey data. Bank erosion was prevalent and channel width increased an average of 27% in the upstream reach, where human use was concentrated. Here, trampling of the banks and riparian vegetation was common, and banks eroded on straight stretches as frequently as on meander bends. Six bridges in the upper reach constrict the channel by an average of 38% of the original width, causing severe erosion. In the downstream control reach, where human use was minimal, channel widths both decreased and increased, with a mean increase of only 4% since 1919. Bank erosion in the control reach occurred primarily on meander bends. The control reach also had denser stands of riparian vegetation and a higher frequency of large woody debris in channels. There is only one bridge in the lower reach, located at the downstream end. Since 1919, bank erosion in the impacted upstream reach contributed a significant amount of sediment (74,800 tonnes, equivalent to 2.0 t/km²/yr) to the river. An analysis of 75 years of precipitation and hydrologic records showed no trends responsible for bank erosion in the upper reach. Sediment input to the upper reach has not changed significantly during the study period. Floodplain soils are sandy, with low cohesion and are easily detached by lateral erosion. The degree of channel widening was positively correlated with the percentage of bare ground on the streambanks and low bank stability ratings. Low bank stability ratings were, in turn, strongly associated with high human use areas. Channel widening and bank erosion in the upper reach were due primarily to destruction of riparian vegetation by human trampling and the effect of bridge constrictions on high flow, and secondarily to poorly installed channel revetments. Several specific recommendations for river restoration were provided to park management.     

Household size and composition and implications for housing need in Kumasi,Ghana: a research note

A simple method of calculating the scale of housing need for Kumasi, Ghana, uses two likely variations in household size distribution and an overcrowding threshold of 3 p.p.r., and a measure of preference. The two household size distributions take account both of trends and of changes which may occur if and when new housing is provided. At that time, released from the current constraints, household formation along traditional lines may again be possible. The preferred supply equates households’ perceived need to their ability to pay at current rents. The resulting range of rooms required is wide but even the lowest need is so far in excess of supply that conventional approaches are self‐evidently inadequate and greater client involvement must be encouraged.     

The grassroot development planning process: the role of physical planning in the rural environment

The concern of this paper is with the spatial consequences of development in a given rural setting and the way in which physical planning fits into the revival of a dying rural area, particularly in Third World Countries. It is based on experience derived from Dekinal in Benue State, Nigeria and endeavours to define a rural area by briefly discussing its characteristics and highlighting its problems. It proposes a comprehensive development planning process to induce development based on available resources.     

Modeling channel management impacts on river migration: a case study of Woodson bridge state recreation area,Sacramento river,California, USA

Understanding how hydraulic factors control alluvial river meander migration can help resource managers evaluate the long-term effects of floodplain management and bank stabilization measures. Using a numerical model based on the mechanics of flow and sediment transport in curved river channels, we predict 50 years of channel migration and suggest the planning and ecological implications of that migration for a 6.4-km reach (river miles 218–222) of the Sacramento River near the Woodson Bridge State Recreation Area, California, USA. Using four different channel management scenarios, our channel migration simulations suggest that: (1) channel stabilization alters the future channel planform locally and downstream from the stabilization; (2) rock revetment currently on the bank upstream from the Woodson Bridge recreation area causes more erosion of the channel bank at the recreation area than if the revetment were not present; (3) relocating the channel to the west and allowing subsequent unconstrained river migration relieves the erosion pressure in the Woodson Bridge area; (4) the subsequent migration reworks (erodes along one river bank and replaces new floodplain along the other) 26.5 ha of land; and (5) the river will rework between 8.5 and 48.5 ha of land in the study reach (over the course of 50 years), depending on the bank stabilization plan used. The reworking of floodplain lands is an important riparian ecosystem function that maintains habitat heterogeneity, an essential factor for the long-term survival of several threatened and endangered animal species in the Sacramento River area.     

Poverty Reduction and Sustainable Development

The prominent place of the chapter on poverty in the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation (JPI) is totally in keeping with the priority given to poverty reduction in the development thinking of the international community of today. The Johannesburg process did not lead to any new insights or new commitments in the fight against poverty. Section one sets out a factual comparison of the poverty chapters in Rio's Agenda 21 (AG21) and in the JPI. Section two reviews the conceptual links between poverty reduction and sustainable development, since poverty is used both as a dependent and as an independent variable. This analysis shows a shift in the function of growth as related to environmental protection. Section three explores the naturalization of development thinking in its economic and social dimensions and shows how this affects the policy options for social protection. I also explain how social and environmental sustainability have become elements of risk management and how are both aimed at conflict prevention and enhanced growth. Finally, in section four three lines of action are suggested to enhance the emergence of a socially meaningful sustainable development agenda that, ideally, would make poverty reduction strategies redundant.     

Global factors shaping the future of food aid: the implications for WFP

Food aid is a key component of a humanitarian response but its use in other programming contexts is subject to numerous criticisms. Even in humanitarian emergencies food aid is often late, unreliable and out of proportion to other elements of the response. Three major factors will shape the future of food aid. First, mechanisms of food aid governance are being reviewed and may undergo major changes—particularly the Food Aid Convention now that hopes have diminished for an Agreement on Agriculture at the World Trade Organisation. The second significant factor is donor agency trends. Overall levels of food aid have dropped fairly steadily in recent decades and there are several discernible trends in resource allocation, procurement and the use of food aid. The third factor is an emerging body of best practice that will define acceptable standards of food aid programming in the future.