What happened to the Second World? Earthquakes and postsocialism in Kazakhstan

There is an assumption that with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Second World ceased to exist. Yet the demise of the Communist bloc as a geopolitical reality did not mean that it stopped exerting a defining influence over how people think and behave. This article examines how the postsocialist state in Kazakhstan deals with potential crises such as earthquakes and the extent to which the Soviet legacy still shapes intellectual debates, state structures, and civil society organisations in in that country. Drawing on fieldwork and interviews, this paper re-examines the Second World in its historical context and re-establishes it as a conceptual framework for considering disaster risk reduction in the former Soviet bloc. It argues that it is essential to pay attention to this legacy in Kazakhstan both in policy and practice if earthquake risk reduction is to be made more effective.     

Understanding world metals prices—Returns,volatility and diversification

In recent times, the prices of internationally traded metals have reached record highs and there is considerable uncertainty regarding their future. This phenomenon is partially driven by strong demand from a small number of emerging economies, such as China and India. This paper uses a long time-series (1900–2007) on 21 metals prices to investigate their properties, and presents unique features of their volatility, including a decomposition into within- and between-group components. If most volatility is commodity-specific rather than “global”, then metals-exporting dependent economies can smooth income via diversification.     

Transboundary governance of the Curonian Spit World Heritage Site

This study describes the governance and management structures of the Curonian Spit World Heritage Site, a transboundary protected area shared by Lithuania and the Russian Federation. Focusing on the national park authorities it presents the site from a local administrative perspective. The paper shows that due to strong state level influence and a lack of full stakeholder inclusion, different philosophies and priorities on both sides of the border challenge common management efforts and co-operation. Presenting the existing problems the paper points out the need for increased efforts at the state level as well as for the full inclusion of local communities to remove obstacles and foster co-operation. Hence, by adapting to certain environmental and transboundary governance principles, conflicts can be avoided and better results achieved.     

中美贸易与污染避难所假说的实证研究——基于内含污染的视角

使用非竞争型投入产出表,在考虑中间产品产生污染的情况下,通过计算中美双边贸易的内含污染,考察对外贸易对发达国家和发展中国家环境的影响,检验污染避难所假说是否成立.本文首先构造中美两国28个制造业的总污染强度,在此基础上计算1987-2004年中美制造业贸易的贸易内含污染条件指标,并分析中美制造业贸易的进出口内含污染的部门来源.研究发现,1992年之后,所有污染物的贸易内含污染条件值都大于1,这意味着美国从中国进口的污染强度要高于中国从美国的进口污染强度,中美双边贸易中,中国环境受损、美国环境获利,污染避难所假说成立.从部门结构上看,中国出口内含污染主要来源于塑料制品、机械设备和工业化学这三个部门,进口内含污染主要来源于工业化学、机械设备和交通设备这三个部门.     

Modeling Postfire Response and Recovery using the Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC‐HMS)1

Abstract: This paper investigates application of the Army Corps of Engineers’ Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC‐HMS) to a burned watershed in San Bernardino County, California. We evaluate the HEC‐HMS’ ability to simulate discharge in prefire and postfire conditions in a semi arid watershed and the necessary parameterizations for modeling hydrologic response during the immediate, and subsequent recovery, period after a wildfire. The model is applied to City Creek watershed, which was 90% burned during the Old Fire of October 2003. An optimal spatial resolution for the HEC‐HMS model was chosen based on an initial sensitivity analysis of subbasin configurations and related model performance. Five prefire storms were calibrated for the selected model resolution, defining a set of parameters that reasonably simulate prefire conditions. Six postfire storms, two from each of the following rainy (winter) seasons were then selected to simulate postfire response and evaluate relative changes in parameter values and model behavior. There were clear trends in the postfire parameters [initial abstractions (I_a), curve number (CN), and lag time] that reveal significant (and expected) changes in watershed behavior. CN returns to prefire (baseline) values by the end of Year 2, while I_a approaches baseline by the end of the third rainy season. However, lag time remains significantly lower than prefire values throughout the three‐year study period. Our results indicate that recovery of soil conditions and related runoff response is not entirely evidenced by the end of the study period (three rainy seasons postfire). Understanding the evolution of the land surface and related hydrologic properties during the highly dynamic postfire period, and accounting for these changes in model parameterizations, will allow for more accurate and reliable discharge simulations in both the immediate, and subsequent, rainy seasons following fire.     

Understanding local community attitudes toward industrial development in the Great Barrier Reef region World Heritage Area: are environmental impacts perceived to overshadow economic benefits?

Conflicts between industrial development and environmental conservation can be particularly acute when such development occurs in the vicinity of World Heritage sites. A key example is the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA) in northeastern Australia, where a 2012 review by the World Heritage Council found that rapid port development inshore of the coral reef posed significant risks to local marine ecosystems. Such instances pose pressing challenges for decision‐makers seeking to manage World Heritage sites for multiple values and needs, including those of key stakeholder groups, such as local communities. There is increasingly a societal expectation that public decision‐making takes into account local views and priorities, and that companies seek a ‘social license to operate’. This research explored local community attitudes toward port development associated with the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal through the GBRWHA. Using data drawn from a survey and interviews, the research examined how a range of geographical factors, including proximity to gas infrastructure and the perceived impacts and risks of development to the local community, economy and environment shape community perceptions of the industry. Findings suggest that local attitudes toward gas and coal terminal development inshore of the GBRWHA are shaped predominantly by community perceptions of environmental impacts and risks associated with such infrastructure, in contrast to a broader public narrative that focuses largely on economic benefits. A complex combination of other factors, including social impacts, personal environmental values, community trust in industry, and equity in decision‐making and distribution of the risks and benefits of industrial development also contribute. Placed in a broader, global context, the findings have important implications for public decision‐making processes in Australia and elsewhere as they suggest that, for local communities, the perceived impacts of gas development on the environment may overshadow the benefits of industry.     

Parental phenols exposure and spontaneous abortion in Chinese population residing in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

Widespread use of phenols has led to ubiquitous exposure to phenols. In experimental animals, phenols increased resorptions, reduced live litter size and fetal body weights. However, there are limited epidemiological evidences of the relationships between exposure to phenols and pregnancy outcomes. We evaluated the associations between parental urinary levels of various phenols and spontaneous abortion in a Chinese population residing in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. A case-control study was conducted that included 70 case couples with medically unexplained spontaneous abortion and 180 control couples who did not have a history of spontaneous abortion and had at least one living child. Both parental urinary phenols were measured by ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry including bisphenol A (BPA), benzophenone-3 (BP-3), 2,3,4-trichlorophenol (2,3,4-TCP), pentachlorophenol (PCP), 4-n-octylphenol (4-n-OP) and 4-n-nonylphenol (4-n-NP). Compared with the low exposure group, there was an increased risk of spontaneous abortion with high paternal urinary PCP concentration [odds ratio (OR) = 2.09, 95% Confidence Interval (CI), 1.05–4.14], and maternal exposure to 4-n-OP and alkylphenol(s) also significantly increased the risk of spontaneous abortion (OR = 2.21, 95% CI, 1.02–4.80; OR = 2.81, 95% CI, 1.39–5.65, respectively). Our study firstly provides the evidence that paternal PCP exposure, maternal 4-n-OP and alkylphenol(s) exposure are associated with spontaneous abortion in humans.     

Development and application of LC–APCI–MS method for biomonitoring of animal and human exposure to imidacloprid

Imidacloprid (IMI) is a relatively new neuro-active neonicotinoid insecticide and nowadays one of the largest selling insecticides worldwide. In the present study a LC–APCI–MS based method was developed and validated for the quantification of imidacloprid and its main metabolite 6-chloronicotinic acid (6-CINA) in urine and hair specimens. The method was tested in biomonitoring of intentionally exposed animals and subsequently applied for biomonitoring of Cretan urban and rural population.     

A Global Model Tracking Water, Nitrogen, and Land Inputs and Virtual Transfers from Industrialized Meat Production and Trade

Rising populations and incomes throughout the world have boosted meat demand by over 75% in the last 20years, intensifying pressures on production systems and the natural resources to which they are linked. As a growing proportion of global meat production is traded, the environmental impacts of production become increasingly separated from where the meat is consumed. In this paper, we quantify the use of three important resources associated with industrial livestock production and trade—water, land, and nitrogen—using a country-specific model that combines trade, agronomic, biogeochemical, and hydrological data. Our model focuses on pigs and chickens, as these animals are raised predominantly in intensive systems using concentrated, compound feeds. The results describe the geographical patterns of environmental resource use due to meat production, trade, and consumption. We show that US feed, animal, and meat destined for export require almost as much nitrogen and land, and 20% more water, than products destined for domestic consumption. Model results also demonstrate that among various production factors, improvements in crop yields and animal feed conversion efficiencies result in the most significant reductions in environmental harm. By explicitly tracking the externalities of meat production, we hope to bolster suppliers’ accountability and provide better information to meat consumers.