A UNIFYING SET OF PROBABILITY TRANSFORMS FOR STOCHASTIC HYDROLOGY1

Abstract: An ordered set of probability sensity functions was derived form transforms of the normal distribution. Variate transforms are based on orders of exponentiation. The set of distributions includes the log-normal. a partial basis for use of these functins in hydrology is demonstrated by establishing some required properties. A concept of mixed samples of zero and nonzero elements forming nonseparable sets of virtual and real elements is introduced to establish a physical lower limit of sampled diata independent of functional bounds.     

Analysis of the Threshold and Expected Coverage Approaches to the Probabilistic Reserve Site Selection Problem

Two approaches to formulating the reserve site selection problem when species occurrence data is probabilistic were solved for terrestrial vertebrates in a small set of potential reserve sites in Oregon. The expected coverage approach, which maximizes the sum of the occurrence probabilities, yielded solutions that covered more species on average in Monte Carlo simulations than the threshold approach, which maximizes the number of species for which the occurrence probability exceeds some threshold.     

Altitudinal Distribution of Meltwater and Its Effects on Glacio‐Hydrology in Glacierized Catchments,Central Asia

In glacierized catchments, elevation is correlated with meltwater through its association with temperature, precipitation, and glacier hypsometry. The revelation of the altitudinal distribution of meltwater, unattended and not fully understood in previous work, might provide a better understanding of climate change impacts on glacio‐hydrology. Here, critical zone approach was defined and applied in 12 glacierized catchments of the Tien Shan–Pamir–Karakorum Mountains, Central Asia using manually calibrated glacier‐enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool model over 1966–2005. The critical zone, a sequence of elevation bands with above‐average snow and glacier melt, contributes maximum meltwater to total runoff. The critical zone shared 37%–95% (average = 80%) of meltwater contributions to total runoff, although its size was only 13%–30% of the total elevational relief. The critical zone controlled 76% and 82% variability in relative changes of glacier area and total runoff at the catchment scale, respectively. The increase in temperature was identified as the dominant driver for variations in total runoff in all catchments except Vakhsh and Yurungkash, where precipitation change remained dominant. Overall, glacier hypsometry limited the first‐order control of meltwater distributions on glacio‐hydrology. It is concluded that critical zone approach can interpret the proxy role of elevation to affect water availability under climate and glacier area change in glacierized catchments.     

Assessment of aquatic experimental versus predicted and extrapolated chronic toxicity data of four structural analogues

The present study was developed to assess the chronic toxicity predictions and extrapolations for a set of chlorinated anilines (aniline (AN), 4-chloroaniline (CA), 3,5-dichloroaniline (DCA) and 2,3,4-trichloroaniline (TCA)). Daphnia magna 21 d chronic experimental data was compared to the chronic toxicity predictions made by the US EPA ECOSAR QSAR tools and to acute-to-chronic extrapolations. Additionally, Species Sensitivity Distributions (SSDs) were constructed to assess the chronic toxicity variability among different species and to investigate the acute versus chronic toxicity in a multi-species context.Since chlorinated anilines are structural analogues with a designated polar narcotic mode of action, similar toxicity responses were assumed. However, rather large interchemical and interspecies differences in toxicity were observed. Compared to the other three test compounds, TCA exposure had a significantly larger impact on growth and reproduction of D. magna. Furthermore, this study illustrated that QSARs or a fixed ACR are not able to account for these interchemical and interspecies differences. Consequently, ECOSAR was found to be inadequate to predict the chronic toxicity of the anilines and the use of a fixed ACR (of 10) led to under of certain species. The experimental ACRs determined in D. magna were substantially different among the four aromatic amines (ACR of 32 for AN, 16.9 for CA, 5.7 for DCA and 60.8 for TCA). Furthermore, the SSDs illustrated that Danio rerio was rather insensitive to AN in comparison to another fish species, Phimphales promelas. It was therefore suggested that available toxicity data should be used in an integrative multi-species way, rather than using individual-based toxicity extrapolations. In this way, a relevant overview of the differences in species sensitivity is given, which in turn can serve as the basis for acute to chronic extrapolations.     

红枫湖水体中活性汞和溶解气态汞的分布特征及其控制因素

基于二次金汞齐结合冷原子荧光测定法对红枫湖活性汞(RHg)和溶解气态汞(DGM)的时空分布特征及其控制因素进行了研究. 红枫湖溶解气态汞含量(ρ(DGM))为0.024～0.110 ng/L,随着水深的增加ρ(DGM)降低,且夏季高,冬季低,这种分布特征表明光在原子态汞的形成中起着重要的作用. 红枫湖ρ(DGM)除受光强影响外,还受到春季后五大量生长的藻类影响,但与溶解性有机碳含量(ρ(DOC))及温度的相关性不大. 活性汞含量(ρ(RHg))为0.14～2.70 ng/L,其主要受Hg2+的光致还原过程,Hg2+的甲基化过程以及人为源的释放等因素的控制.      

爱尔兰海岸夏季空气颗粒物水溶性离子粒径分布研究

研究了爱尔兰西海岸国际海洋大气研究站夏季（2002年8月12～22日）大西洋气团颗粒物中水溶性无机离子的含量与其粒径关系.海盐成分（Cl^-、SO4^2-、Na^＋、Ca2＋、Mg^2＋、K^＋）含量在粗颗粒物中随粒径呈双峰分布（0.8～30 μm）,但Ca^2＋和K＋受陆域源影响,在亚微米颗粒区间出现另一分布峰（0.1～0.8 μm）.二次颗粒物成分在所有颗粒物中均有检出;NO^3-呈广域宽带分布,其中大部分出现在海盐主峰区（0.8～8 μm,存在Dp 1.4 μm和Dp 4.4 μm两种模态）;nss-SO4^2-（非海盐硫酸根）和NH^4＋呈相关三峰分布（Dp 0.44 μm、Dp 1.4 μm和Dp 4.4 μm）,CH3SO3-也呈相似三峰分布（Dp 0.44 μm、Dp 1.4 μm和Dp 8 μm）,三者在亚微米颗粒区间同位出现主峰.二次颗粒物成分Dp 1.4 μm模态在海岸空气颗粒物研究文献中尚少见报道.讨论了亚微米区间二次颗粒物盐类的化学形态.TSP中nss-SO4^2-、NO^3-、NH^4＋和CH3SO^3-的日均浓度分别为0.279、0.171、0.158和0.041 μg/m^3.     

五大连池药泉湖总有机碳分布特征研究

以五大连池药泉湖为研究对象,开展对其水样及底泥中总有机碳的含量及分布特征研究。结果表明：药泉湖水体中总有机碳（TOC）含量范围在8．7～11．47mg／L之间,平均为9．89mg／L;药泉湖底泥中总有机碳（TOC）含量范围在40．77～77．25mg／kg之间,平均为54．12mg／kg。药泉湖周围的农业面源污染、居民办公区的生活污水的排入以及湖水径流路线对其分布有较大影响。     

Measurement of atmospheric nanoparticles: Bridging the gap between gas-phase molecules and larger particles

Atmospheric nanoparticles are crucial components contributing to fine particulate matter(PM2.5), and therefore have significant effects on visibility, climate, and human health. Due to the unique role of atmospheric nanoparticles during the evolution process from gas-phase molecules to larger particles, a number of sophisticated experimental techniques have been developed and employed for online monitoring and characterization of the physical and chemical properties of atmospheric nanoparticles,...     

重特大事故的离散幂律分布——以煤矿事故为例

研究近年来我国每起煤矿重大和特别重大事故死亡人数统计数据,建立其概率分布模型。基于极大似然法和柯尔莫哥洛夫一斯米尔诺夫检验方法（K-S方法）估计我国煤矿重大和特别重大事故离散幂律分布的参数,并采用MonteCarlo方法随机生成大量的检验样本,对其进行K-S方法拟合优度检验。结果表明在统计学意义上我国煤矿重大和特别重大事故死亡人数比高斯分布的值大得多,服从标度指数为2．72的离散幂律分布。     

Number concentration and size distributions of submicron particles in Jinan urban area： Characteristics in summer and winter

The aerosol number concentration and size distribution were measured with the newly developed Wide-range Particle Spectrometer in summer and winter of 2006 at the urban site of Jinan City.Here reported the characteristics of fine particles of the different observation seasons.Relative high number concentrations for the particles in the diameter range of 10-500 nm were observed in both seasons.It was found that the dominant number distributed in particle diameter smaller than 100 nm and the percentage over the number concentration of all air particles is much higher than what has been measured in other urban sites over the world.The number mean diameter in summer was much smaller than in winter,strongly suggesting the different origin of ultrafine particles in different seasons.That is, particles in ultrafine mode mainly came from nucleation and new particle formation in summer while from traffic emission in winter. The diurnal variation also supported this point.Number concentration in the diameter range of 10-200 nm got their peak values at noontime,well correlated with the mixing ratio of SO_2 and the intensity of solar radiation in summer.While in winter,those in the same diameter range showed the main peaks during the traffic hours happened in the morning and evening.