深圳湾及邻近沿岸水域总溶解氮的分布、组成和来源及氮形态的转化

依据2000—2011年每月1次的调查资料,简要描述和讨论了深圳湾及邻近沿岸水域中总溶解氮(TDN)质量浓度的时空分布,并结合现场盐度、总凯氏氮、氨氮、亚硝酸盐氮和硝酸盐氮实测数据探讨TDN的组成和来源,以及溶解无机氮(DIN)和溶解有机氮(DON)之间的转化.结果表明,深圳湾和伶仃洋东部沿岸的TDN质量浓度分别为(2.870±2.150)mg·L-1和(0.679±0.405)mg·L-1.在深圳湾,由于受到周边陆源排放的影响,TDN质量浓度在丰水期较低,枯水期较高.在伶仃洋东部沿岸,由于受到珠江径流量的制约,TDN质量浓度呈明显的年周期循环特征,6月达到最高,为1.103 mg·L-1左右,而12月最低,为0.420 mg·L-1左右.12年研究期间,伶仃洋东部沿岸TDN质量浓度的年际变化略呈上升趋势,从0.560 mg·L-1上升至0.702 mg·L-1;深圳湾TDN质量浓度在2000—2004年呈上升趋势,从2.140 mg·L-1上升至3.577 mg·L-1,2005—2011年则呈下降趋势,从3.266 mg·L-1下降至2.280 mg·L-1.研究海区中的TDN具有"保守性",主要来自陆源排放.依二元混合质量平衡模式估算的伶仃洋东部沿岸TDN的陆源质量分数约为68.5%,而深圳湾的均大于87.0%.DIN是TDN的主要赋存形态.在氮从河口向海迁移期间,复杂的生物地球化学过程使DIN转化为DON的速率大于DON转化为DIN的速率.     

轴向与截面非均匀温度场对某固支钢梁最大挠度的影响

目前钢构件火灾响应特性的数值模拟分析一般假设温度场轴向均匀分布,但大空间真实火灾环境下,火源位置的变化往往会导致温度场轴向和截面的非均匀。采用ANSYS有限元分析软件,对某12m长固支钢梁在三面受火情况下的最大挠度进行分析,首先假设温度场轴向非均匀分布,在此基础上进一步假设截面方向也存在非均匀分布,并与轴向均匀温度场下钢梁的最大挠度进行比较。在该文研究条件下可得如下结果：钢梁在轴向非均匀温度场下最大挠度较小,耐火时间增长;对于温度场轴向非均匀分布,截面同时非均匀分布时钢梁最大挠度较大;当温度场轴向非均匀、截面均匀时,火源位置从端部到中间,钢梁最大挠度逐渐减小,在距端部1/4处最大挠度有突增。     

Using computer graphics to reveal temporal changes in urban population density patterns

Population distributions change substantially over time in major metropolitan areas. Knowledge of these variations by time of day, day of the week and other time periods can be helpful to disaster planners who need to prepare response plans to earthquakes and other disasters that will injure and kill large numbers of people. Computer graphics can display data that describe these changing population patterns in ways that can be more easily comprehended than page after page of printed numbers. Several different illustrations of 3-D population density maps drawn by the ASPEX computer program are presented. Each illustrates a guideline that can be used to prepare maps that deal with the many ways of looking at urban population density distributions and their temporal changes. Those maps can help disaster planners gain a realistic perception of population density distributions by enabling them to see what cannot be seen from the actual physical structure of a large metropolitan region.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND CONTRIBUTING CAUSES OF AN ABNORMAL FREQUENCY OF FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINSTORMS AT CHICAGO1

ABSTRACT: Major hydrometeorological factors pertinent to defining and understanding the hydrologic characteristics of urban and other small-basin storms were investigated using data from a continuous 44-year operation of a recording raingage network in Chicago. Factors included: the frequency distribution of basin mean rainfall and its relation to storm maximum precipitation; the spatial distribution characteristics of each storm, including storm rainfall reduction factors which are widely used in hydrologic design problems; and weather-related causes related to the frequency and intensity of severe rainstorms in the Chicago area in recent years. Results have indicated that urban mean rainfall frequencies were overestimated in earlier studies in which they were derived from point/areal mean rainfall ratios obtained from much shorter records on rural networks. Reduction factors were found to vary between urban and rural storm systems due to urban-related effects. Two factors were found to be potential contributors to the characteristics of severe rainstorm occurrences at Chicago. These include urban-induced rain enhancement and an upward climatic trend in the occurrence of heavy rainfall events during the sampling period. Study results should be generally applicable to other large urban areas in the Midwest and other regions of similar precipitation climate.     

THE USE OF BIOLOGICAL CRITERIA IN ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY1

ABSTRACT: The hypothesis of this paper is that regulatory systems for the control of effluent released to the environment can be, if improperly designed, inadequate for both the establishment of effective pollution control policy and the assessment of the biological significance of violations. This inadequacy may stem from several factors: first, the use of single point standards which delineate the boundary between legally acceptable and unacceptable pollutant discharges; and second, the existence of significant weaknesses in the frequency and design of monitoring programs. In order to be effective, pollution standards must reflect the impact of pollutants on the ecosystem. To achieve this goal, three critical pieces of information are required: measurement of ambient levels of released pollutants, frequency distributions derived from these data, and estimates of biological damage functions. Illustrating the above three requirements with data drawn from research in British Columbia, the authors recommended a restructuring of environmental policy to provide regulatory agencies with an effective mechanism for the analysis and control of environmental degradation.     

九龙江流域大气氮湿沉降研究

通过2004～2005年对位于我国东南沿海的九龙江流域及周边共17个站点的实地观测,运用GIS技术定量揭示了大气氮湿沉降强度和时空分布特征,并利用氮稳定同位素分析雨水硝态氮的主要来源.结果表明,①17个站点雨水总氮平均浓度为(2.20±1.69)～(3.26±1.37) mg·L-1(以N计,下同),铵态氮、硝态氮和有机氮分别占39%、25%和36%;②雨水氮浓度随降雨强度的增大呈降低趋势,旱季浓度明显大于雨季,降水对大气具有清洗作用;③低δ15N值表明雨水硝态氮主要来源于汽车尾气排放、化石燃料燃烧和化肥施用;④九龙江流域大气氮湿沉降量平均9.9 kg·hm-2,春夏2季约占全年的91%,大气氮湿沉降占沉降总量的66%,揭示了该地区1∶2的大气氮干湿沉降结构.大气氮湿沉降时空差异与降雨量和氮的排放直接相关.     

Quantifying Rarity, Losses, and Risks for Native Fishes of the Lower Colorado River Basin: Implications for Conservation Listing

Abstract:  We examined spatial distributions of fishes native to the lower basin of the Colorado River (25 species) at three scales to determine percent decline from historical distributions based on a regional biodiversity database. We cumulated records from 1843 to 1980 to develop a "historical distribution" for each species and used those occurrences recorded from 1981 to 1998 as "modern" records. We then contrasted historical and modern distributions to (1) quantify losses in spatial distribution; (2) determine how strongly these losses and fragmentation patterns corresponded to the perceived risk of extinction of each species, as represented by its status under the IUCN Red List of Endangered Species; and (3) update extinction risk rankings for 15 fishes endemic to the lower Colorado Basin according to the IUCN criteria. Based on presence and absence data, fish fauna of the lower Colorado Basin have suffered massive distributional losses. On average, ranges of extant species have diminished more than 45% relative to their historical distribution, and 35% of species have lost 50% or more of their occurrences. We provide nine new IUCN rankings and six updates to reflect more accurately the heightened imperilment of these species. Based on our new rankings, 7 of the 15 lower Colorado Basin endemics are critically endangered, 1 is endangered, 2 are vulnerable, and 1 is already extinct. We categorize the remaining 2 endemics as lower risk. This work demonstrates the utility of matching quantitative spatial metrics such as the scale-area slope statistic to extinction risk criteria for species whose persistence is strongly influenced by spatial distribution.     

Modelling asymmetrically distributed circular data using the wrapped skew-normal distribution

We consider problems of inference for the wrapped skew-normal distribution on the circle. A centered parametrization of the distribution is introduced, and simulation used to compare the performance of method of moments and maximum likelihood estimation for its parameters. Maximum likelihood estimation is shown, in general, to be superior. The operating characteristics of two moment based tests, for wrapped normal and wrapped half-normal parent populations, respectively, are also explored. The former test is easy to apply, maintains the nominal significance level well and is generally highly powerful. The latter test does not hold the nominal significance level so well, although it is very powerful against negatively skew alternatives. Likelihood based tests for the two distributions are also discussed. A real data set from the ornithological literature is used to illustrate the application of the developed methodology and its extension to finite mixture modelling. Received: September 2003/ Revised: April 2005     

Contributions to composite sampling

The initial use of composite sampling involved the analysis of many negative samples with relatively high laboratory cost (Dorfman sampling). We propose a method of double compositing and compare its efficiency with Dorfman sampling. The variability of composite measurement samples has environmental interest (hot spots). The precision of these estimates depends on the kurtosis of the distribution; leptokurtic distributions (₂ > 0) have increased precision as the number of field samples is increased. The opposite effect is obtained for platykurtic distributions. In the lognormal case, coverage probabilities are reasonable for < 0.5. The Poisson distribution can be associated with temporal compositing, of particular interest where radioactive measurements are taken. Sample size considerations indicate that the total sampling effort is directly proportional to the length of time sampled. If there is background radiation then increasing levels of this radiation require larger sample sizes to detect the same difference in radiation.     

Hidden Markov models for circular and linear-circular time series

We introduce a new class of circular time series based on hidden Markov models. These are compared with existing models, their properties are outlined and issues relating to parameter estimation are discussed. The new models conveniently describe multi-modal circular time series as dependent mixtures of circular distributions. Two examples from biology and meteorology are used to illustrate the theory. Finally, we introduce a hidden Markov model for bivariate linear-circular time series and use it to describe larval movement of the fly Drosophila. Received: September 2003 / Revised: March 2004