Using exploration expenditures to assess the climate for mineral investment

Countries that rely on private investors to find and exploit their mineral resources need reliable indicators of their investment attractiveness. This study explores the use of exploration expenditures for this purpose, focusing primarily on Chile.     

Traps and transformations influencing the financial viability of tourism on private‐land conservation areas

The ability of private conservation organizations to remain financially viable is a key factor influencing their effectiveness. One‐third of financially motivated private‐land conservation areas (PLCAs) surveyed in South Africa are unprofitable, raising questions about landowners’ abilities to effectively adapt their business models to the socioeconomic environment. In any complex system, options for later adaptation can be constrained by starting conditions (path dependence). We tested 3 hypothesized drivers of path dependence in PLCA ecotourism and hunting business models: (H1) the initial size of a PLCA limits the number of mammalian game and thereby predators that can be sustained; (H2) initial investments in infrastructure limit the ability to introduce predators; and (H3) rainfall limits game and predator abundance. We further assessed how managing for financial stability (optimized game stocking) or ecological sustainability (allowing game to fluctuate with environmental conditions) influenced the ability to overcome path dependence. A mechanistic PLCA model based on simple ecological and financial rules was run for different initial conditions and management strategies, simulating landowner options for adapting their business model annually. Despite attempts by simulated landowners to increase profits, adopted business models after 13 years were differentiated by initial land and infrastructural assets, supporting H1 and H2. A conservation organization's initial assets can cause it to become locked into a financially vulnerable business model. In our 50‐year simulation, path dependence was overcome by fewer of the landowners who facilitated natural ecological variability than those who maintained constant hunting rates and predator numbers, but the latter experienced unsustainably high game densities in low rainfall years. Management for natural variability supported long‐term ecological sustainability but not shorter term socioeconomic sustainability for PLCAs. Our findings highlight trade‐offs between ecological and economic sustainability and suggest a role for governmental support of the private conservation industry.     

Incorporating fragmentation and non‐native species into distribution models to inform fluvial fish conservation

Fluvial fishes face increased imperilment from anthropogenic activities, but the specific factors contributing most to range declines are often poorly understood. For example, the range of the fluvial‐specialist shoal bass (Micropterus cataractae) continues to decrease, yet how perceived threats have contributed to range loss is largely unknown. We used species distribution models to determine which factors contributed most to shoal bass range loss. We estimated a potential distribution based on natural abiotic factors and a series of currently occupied distributions that incorporated variables characterizing land cover, non‐native species, and river fragmentation intensity (no fragmentation, dams only, and dams and large impoundments). We allowed interspecific relationships between non‐native congeners and shoal bass to vary across fragmentation intensities. Results from the potential distribution model estimated shoal bass presence throughout much of their native basin, whereas models of currently occupied distribution showed that range loss increased as fragmentation intensified. Response curves from models of currently occupied distribution indicated a potential interaction between fragmentation intensity and the relationship between shoal bass and non‐native congeners, wherein non‐natives may be favored at the highest fragmentation intensity. Response curves also suggested that >100 km of interconnected, free‐flowing stream fragments were necessary to support shoal bass presence. Model evaluation, including an independent validation, suggested that models had favorable predictive and discriminative abilities. Similar approaches that use readily available, diverse, geospatial data sets may deliver insights into the biology and conservation needs of other fluvial species facing similar threats.     

Quantitative evaluation of collagen type VI and SOD gene expression in the nuchal skin of human fetuses with trisomy 21

Objective To investigate the involvement of the genes encoding for COL6A1, COLA2 and super-oxide dismutase (SOD) in the mechanism for the retention of subcutaneous fluid in fetuses with trisomy 21. Methods During a 7-month period (November 2004–May 2005), human fetal skin from the nuchal region was obtained from euploid fetuses and from fetuses with trisomy 21 following abortions and terminations of pregnancy. Cell cultures were performed from nuchal skin. Quantification of COL6A1, COL6A2, COL6A3 and SOD mRNAs were performed using real-time quantitative RT-PCR. Results Twelve fetuses were studied between 13–15 and 19–20 weeks of gestation including 7 cases of trisomy 21. A significant overexpression of genes of interest was demonstrated in trisomy 21 fetuses when compared with euploid fetuses, in the first and in the second trimester of pregnancy (p < 0.0001). Conclusion This study demonstrates a homogeneous overexpression of the genes encoding for α1 and α2 chains of Collagen type VI, and SOD in nuchal skin of human trisomy 21 fetuses. Persistence of this overexpression in the second trimester of pregnancy, despite the absence of an enlarged nuchal translucency (NT), may characterize some compensatory mechanisms. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.