Assessing the population-level conservation effects of marine protected areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) cover 3–7% of the world's ocean, and international organizations call for 30% coverage by 2030. Although numerous studies show that MPAs produce conservation benefits inside their borders, many MPAs are also justified on the grounds that they confer conservation benefits to the connected populations that span beyond their borders. A network of MPAs covering roughly 20% of the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary was established in 2003, with a goal of providing regional conservation and fishery benefits. We used a spatially explicit bioeconomic simulation model and a Bayesian difference-in-difference regression to examine the conditions under which MPAs can provide population-level conservation benefits inside and outside their borders and to assess evidence of those benefits in the Channel Islands. As of 2017, we estimated that biomass densities of targeted fin-fish had a median value 81% higher (90% credible interval: 23–148) inside the Channel Island MPAs than outside. However, we found no clear effect of these MPAs on mean total biomass densities at the population level: estimated median effect was –7% (90% credible interval: –31 to 23) from 2015 to 2017. Our simulation model showed that effect sizes of MPAs of <30% were likely to be difficult to detect (even when they were present); smaller effect sizes (which are likely to be common) were even harder to detect. Clearly, communicating expectations and uncertainties around MPAs is critical to ensuring that MPAs are effective. We provide a novel assessment of the population-level effects of a large MPA network across many different species of targeted fin-fish, and our results offer guidance for communities charged with monitoring and adapting MPAs.     

Estimation of Body‐Size Traits by Photogrammetry in Large Mammals to Inform Conservation

Abstract: Photography, including remote imagery and camera traps, has contributed substantially to conservation. However, the potential to use photography to understand demography and inform policy is limited. To have practical value, remote assessments must be reasonably accurate and widely deployable. Prior efforts to develop noninvasive methods of estimating trait size have been motivated by a desire to answer evolutionary questions, measure physiological growth, or, in the case of illegal trade, assess economics of horn sizes; but rarely have such methods been directed at conservation. Here I demonstrate a simple, noninvasive photographic technique and address how knowledge of values of individual‐specific metrics bears on conservation policy. I used 10 years of data on juvenile moose (Alces alces) to examine whether body size and probability of survival are positively correlated in cold climates. I investigated whether the presence of mothers improved juvenile survival. The posited latter relation is relevant to policy because harvest of adult females has been permitted in some Canadian and American jurisdictions under the assumption that probability of survival of young is independent of maternal presence. The accuracy of estimates of head sizes made from photographs exceeded 98%. The estimates revealed that overwinter juvenile survival had no relation to the juvenile's estimated mass (p < 0.64) and was more strongly associated with maternal presence (p < 0.02) than winter snow depth (p < 0.18). These findings highlight the effects on survival of a social dynamic (the mother‐young association) rather than body size and suggest a change in harvest policy will increase survival. Furthermore, photographic imaging of growth of individual juvenile muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) over 3 Arctic winters revealed annual variability in size, which supports the idea that noninvasive monitoring may allow one to detect how some environmental conditions ultimately affect body growth.     

Reliability of Indicators of Decline in Abundance

Abstract: Although there are many indicators of endangerment (i.e., whether populations or species meet criteria that justify conservation action), their reliability has rarely been tested. Such indicators may fail to identify that a population or species meets criteria for conservation action (false negative) or may incorrectly show that such criteria have been met (false positive). To quantify the rate of both types of error for 20 commonly used indicators of declining abundance (threat indicators), we used receiver operating characteristic curves derived from historical (1938–2007) data for 18 sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations in the Fraser River, British Columbia, Canada. We retrospectively determined each population's yearly status (reflected by change in abundance over time) on the basis of each indicator. We then compared that population's status in a given year with the status in subsequent years (determined by the magnitude of decline in abundance across those years). For each sockeye population, we calculated how often each indicator of past status matched subsequent status. No single threat indicator provided error‐free estimates of status, but indicators that reflected the extent (i.e., magnitude) of past decline in abundance (through comparison of current abundance with some historical baseline abundance) tended to better reflect status in subsequent years than the rate of decline over the previous 3 generations (a widely used indicator). We recommend that when possible, the reliability of various threat indicators be evaluated with empirical analyses before such indicators are used to determine the need for conservation action. These indicators should include estimates from the entire data set to take into account a historical baseline.     

Drivers of Change in Hunter Offtake and Hunting Strategies in Sendje,Equatorial Guinea

Economic development in Africa is expected to increase levels of bushmeat hunting through rising demand for meat and improved transport infrastructure. However, few studies have tracked long‐term changes in hunter behavior as a means of testing this prediction. We evaluated changes in hunter behavior in a rural community in Equatorial Guinea over a period of rapid national economic growth, during which time road access to the regional capital greatly improved. We conducted offtake surveys (Supporting Information) over 3 7‐week periods at the same time of year in 1998, 2003, and 2010 and conducted hunter and household interviews (Supporting Information) in 2003 and 2010. We tested whether relations existed among catch, hunting effort, hunting strategy, and income earned through hunting and other livelihoods in 2003 and 2010. Although village offtake increased from 1775 kg in 1998 to 4172 kg in 2003, it decreased in 2010 to 1361 kg. Aggregate catch per unit effort (i.e., number of carcasses caught per hunter and per trap) decreased from 2003 to 2010, and the majority of hunters reported a decrease in abundance of local fauna. Although these results are indicative of unsustainable hunting, cumulative changes in offtake and catch per unit effort were driven by a contraction in the total area hunted following an out‐migration of 29 of the village's hunters, most of whom left to gain employment in the construction industry, after 2003. Hunters operating in both 2003 and 2010 hunted closer to the village because an increased abundance of elephants posed a danger and because they desired to earn income through other activities. Our study provides an example of national economic development contributing to a reduction in the intensity and extent of hunting. Factores de Cambio en la Captura de Cazadores y Estrategias de Caza en Sendje, Guinea Ecuatorial     

Assessment of mammal reproduction for hunting sustainability through community‐based sampling of species in the wild

Wildlife subsistence hunting is a major source of protein for tropical rural populations and a prominent conservation issue. The intrinsic rate of natural increase. (r_max) of populations is a key reproductive parameter in the most used assessments of hunting sustainability. However, researchers face severe difficulties in obtaining reproductive data in the wild, so these assessments often rely on classic reproductive rates calculated mostly from studies of captive animals conducted 30 years ago. The result is a flaw in almost 50% of studies, which hampers management decision making. We conducted a 15‐year study in the Amazon in which we used reproductive data from the genitalia of 950 hunted female mammals. Genitalia were collected by local hunters. We examined tissue from these samples to estimate birthrates for wild populations of the 10 most hunted mammals. We compared our estimates with classic measures and considered the utility of the use of r_max in sustainability assessments. For woolly monkey (Lagothrix poeppigii) and tapir (Tapirus terrestris), wild birthrates were similar to those from captive populations, whereas birthrates for other ungulates and lowland‐paca (Cuniculus paca) were significantly lower than previous estimates. Conversely, for capuchin monkeys (Sapajus macrocephalus), agoutis (Dasyprocta sp.), and coatis (Nasua nasua), our calculated reproductive rates greatly exceeded often‐used values. Researchers could keep applying classic measures compatible with our estimates, but for other species previous estimates of r_max may not be appropriate. We suggest that data from local studies be used to set hunting quotas. Our maximum rates of population growth in the wild correlated with body weight, which suggests that our method is consistent and reliable. Integration of this method into community‐based wildlife management and the training of local hunters to record pregnancies in hunted animals could efficiently generate useful information of life histories of wild species and thus improve management of natural resources.     

大型浅水湖泊太湖霍甫水丝蚓次级生产力的研究

作为湖泊底栖动物优势种类的霍甫水丝蚓在长江中下游湖泊分布广泛,在湖泊生态系统的能流和物流中占有十分重要的地位。为了了解霍甫水丝蚓在大型浅水湖泊中的种群动态规律、生活史和周年生产量等的状况,于2005年1~12月对太湖霍甫水丝蚓进行周年的研究,以期为了解太湖这一优势种类的生产力状况及合理利用这一资源提供理论依据。研究发现,2005年太湖霍甫水丝蚓年均密度和生物量分别为3 274ind./m~2(0~13 800ind./m~2)和4.70g/m2(0~29.15g/m~2),一般均在冬季达到高峰,空间分布上霍甫水丝蚓密度和生物量呈现出明显的差异性,在太湖北部梅梁湾和竺山湾及西部河口湖区分布较高,而在其它区域的现存量均较低。根据体长频数分布的周年变化特征,推测太湖霍甫水丝蚓约为一年三代,繁殖可能发生在3、7和11月份期间。2005年太湖霍甫水丝蚓年生产量为480.21g·m~(-2)·yr-1,P/B为14.17,与同类研究报道相比属于较高水平。分析表明太湖霍甫水丝蚓的高世代数导致其高P/B系数,而高周年生产量与其所处的营养水平相对较高有关,这对于太湖渔产潜力具有显著意义。     

Strictly protected areas are not necessarily more effective than areas in which multiple human uses are permitted

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) classifies protected areas into six categories, ranging from strict nature reserves to areas where multiple human uses are permitted. In the past, many researchers have questioned the effectiveness of multiple-use areas, fueling an unresolved debate regarding their conservation value. The literature so far has been inconclusive: although several studies have found that strictly protected areas are more effective, others have found the opposite, and yet others that the two types do not differ. To help resolve this debate, we reviewed the literature on protected areas and conducted our own analysis using > 19 000 terrestrial protected areas worldwide. We found that the differences between strictly protected areas and areas in which multiple human uses are permitted are often small and not statistically significant. Although the effectiveness of protected areas worldwide varies, other factors, besides their assigned IUCN category, are likely to be driving this pattern.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01426-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Data quality evaluation and calibration of on-road remote sensing systems based on exhaust plumes

In recent years, with rapid increases in the number of vehicles in China, the contribution of vehicle exhaust emissions to air pollution has become increasingly prominent. To achieve the precise control of emissions, on-road remote sensing (RS) technology has been developed and applied for law enforcement and supervision. However, data quality is still an existing issue affecting the development and application of RS. In this study, the RS data from a cross-road RS system used at a single site (from 2012 to 2015) were collected, the data screening process was reviewed, the issues with data quality were summarized, a new method of data screening and calibration was proposed, and the effectiveness of the improved data quality control methods was finally evaluated. The results showed that this method reduces the skewness and kurtosis of the data distribution by up to nearly 67%, which restores the actual characteristics of exhaust diffusion and is conducive to the identification of actual clean and high-emission vehicles. The annual variability of emission factors of nitric oxide decreases by 60% – on average – eliminating the annual drift of fleet emissions and improving data reliability.     

Towards the estimation of demand for recycling in Chile: The case of Santiago

In developing countries, the recycling of municipal solid waste (MSW) as an alternative to the traditional MSW management requires an economic sustainability valuation. From this perspective, the estimation of demand for recycling is crucial. In this paper, we study the case of recycling MSW in Santiago, Chile. We estimate the relation between the monthly amount of MSW separated voluntarily from apartments located in Santiago and the monthly price required to participate in a municipal recycling program. We consider the transference of the municipal cost savings to the owners of the apartments due to the amount of MSW separated for recycling, which is not collected and deposited in the current MSW system. For the estimation, we use concepts from environmental economics and psychology, analyzing the operation and municipal costs incurred by current MSW management and designing and applying a survey based on a contingent valuation method (CVM) approach. The results indicate that the percentage of MSW separated for recycling varies between a 27.98% and 33.18%, that only four MSW types are affected by a variation of the monthly price, and that a reduction of monthly collection trips in the current MSW system from 24 to 18 can be obtained. Additionally, we discuss a number of methodological aspects to be considered in a similar study of valuation of recycling in developing countries. Our conclusion is that Santiago has favorable conditions for the implementation of a recycling program as an alternative to the current MSW system.     

某型飞机全尺寸雷达罩静强度分析与试验验证

目的考核某型飞机全尺寸雷达罩的静强度,验证其计算模型的准确性。方法采用有限元计算和静力试验相结合的方法,对某型飞机全尺寸雷达罩的承载能力进行研究与试验验证。根据雷达罩的结构特点和载荷分布情况建立有限元计算模型,进行应力应变计算与强度校核,得到了雷达罩的应力应变云图。在此基础上,选用最严重载荷工况对雷达罩的承载能力进行试验验证。通过试验总体方案设计及加载实施方案优化设计,采用矢量加载技术和软硬结合的加载方式对雷达罩施加拉压载荷,保证各加载点的载荷均与所在表面的法向相同,与雷达罩实际受载情况一致。结果雷达罩的应力水平较低,承载能力较高;试验实测应力结果与理论计算结果有偏差,但应力分布规律合理,与理论分析计算结果的趋势基本一致;静力试验结果证明雷达罩及其与机身连接结构能够满足静强度设计要求。结论雷达罩静力试验测得的应变数据与有限元计算结果吻合较好,雷达罩本体及其与机身的连接结构满足强度设计要求。