Expert judgment and uncertainty regarding the protection of imperiled species

Decisions concerning the appropriate listing status of species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) can be controversial even among conservationists. These decisions may determine whether a species persists in the near term and have long‐lasting social and political ramifications. Given the ESA's mandate that such decisions be based on the best available science, it is important to examine what factors contribute to experts’ judgments concerning the listing of species. We examined how a variety of factors (such as risk perception, value orientations, and norms) influenced experts’ judgments concerning the appropriate listing status of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Experts were invited to complete an online survey examining their perceptions of the threats grizzly bears face and their listing recommendation. Although experts’ assessments of the threats to this species were strongly correlated with their recommendations for listing status, this relationship did not exist when other cognitive factors were included in the model. Specifically, values related to human use of wildlife and norms (i.e., a respondent's expectation of peers’ assessments) were most influential in listing status recommendations. These results suggest that experts’ decisions about listing, like all human decisions, are subject to the use of heuristics (i.e., decision shortcuts). An understanding of how heuristics and related biases affect decisions under uncertainty can help inform decision making about threatened and endangered species and may be useful in designing effective processes for protection of imperiled species.     

Responses of Seed‐Dispersing Birds to Amount of Rainforest in the Landscape around Fragments

Habitat loss and fragmentation alter the composition of bird assemblages in rainforest. Because birds are major seed dispersers in rainforests, fragmentation‐induced changes to frugivorous bird assemblages are also likely to alter the ecological processes of seed dispersal and forest regeneration, but the specific nature of these changes is poorly understood. We assessed the influence of fragment size and landscape forest cover on the abundance, species composition, and functional properties of the avian seed disperser community in an extensively cleared, former rainforest landscape of subtropical Australia. Bird surveys of fixed time and area in 25 rainforest fragments (1–139 ha in size across a 1800 km² region) provided bird assemblage data which were coupled with prior knowledge of bird species’ particular roles in seed dispersal to give measurements of seven different attributes of the seed disperser assemblage. We used multimodel regression to assess how patch size and surrounding forest cover (within 200 m, 1000 m, and 5000 m radii) influenced variation in the abundance of individual bird species and of functional groups based on bird species’ responses to fragmentation and their roles in seed dispersal. Surrounding forest cover, specifically rainforest cover, generally had a greater effect on frugivorous bird assemblages than fragment size. Amount of rainforest cover within 200 m of fragments was the main factor positively associated with abundances of frugivorous birds that are both fragmentation sensitive and important seed dispersers. Our results suggest a high proportion of local rainforest cover is required for the persistence of seed‐dispersing birds and the maintenance of seed dispersal processes. Thus, even small rainforest fragments can function as important parts of habitat networks for seed‐dispersing birds, whether or not they are physically connected by vegetation. Respuestas de Aves Dispersoras de Semillas al Incremento de Selvas en el Paisaje Alrededor de Fragmentos     

Effectiveness of vegetation‐based biodiversity offset metrics as surrogates for ants

Biodiversity offset schemes are globally popular policy tools for balancing the competing demands of conservation and development. Trading currencies for losses and gains in biodiversity value at development and credit sites are usually based on several vegetation attributes combined to yield a simple score (multimetric), but the score is rarely validated prior to implementation. Inaccurate biodiversity trading currencies are likely to accelerate global biodiversity loss through unrepresentative trades of losses and gains. We tested a model vegetation multimetric (i.e., vegetation structural and compositional attributes) typical of offset trading currencies to determine whether it represented measurable components of compositional and functional biodiversity. Study sites were located in remnant patches of a critically endangered ecological community in western Sydney, Australia, an area representative of global conflicts between conservation and expanding urban development. We sampled ant fauna composition with pitfall traps and enumerated removal by ants of native plant seeds from artificial seed containers (seed depots). Ants are an excellent model taxon because they are strongly associated with habitat complexity, respond rapidly to environmental change, and are functionally important at many trophic levels. The vegetation multimetric did not predict differences in ant community composition or seed removal, despite underlying assumptions that biodiversity trading currencies used in offset schemes represent all components of a site's biodiversity value. This suggests that vegetation multimetrics are inadequate surrogates for total biodiversity value. These findings highlight the urgent need to refine existing offsetting multimetrics to ensure they meet underlying assumptions of surrogacy. Despite the best intentions, offset schemes will never achieve their goal of no net loss of biodiversity values if trades are based on metrics unrepresentative of total biodiversity.     

Optimal Management of a Multispecies Shorebird Flyway under Sea‐Level Rise

Every year, millions of migratory shorebirds fly through the East Asian–Australasian Flyway between their arctic breeding grounds and Australasia. This flyway includes numerous coastal wetlands in Asia and the Pacific that are used as stopover sites where birds rest and feed. Loss of a few important stopover sites through sea‐level rise (SLR) could cause sudden population declines. We formulated and solved mathematically the problem of how to identify the most important stopover sites to minimize losses of bird populations across flyways by conserving land that facilitates upshore shifts of tidal flats in response to SLR. To guide conservation investment that minimizes losses of migratory bird populations during migration, we developed a spatially explicit flyway model coupled with a maximum flow algorithm. Migratory routes of 10 shorebird taxa were modeled in a graph theoretic framework by representing clusters of important wetlands as nodes and the number of birds flying between 2 nodes as edges. We also evaluated several resource allocation algorithms that required only partial information on flyway connectivity (node strategy, based on the impacts of SLR at nodes; habitat strategy, based on habitat change at sites; population strategy, based on population change at sites; and random investment). The resource allocation algorithms based on flyway information performed on average 15% better than simpler allocations based on patterns of habitat loss or local bird counts. The Yellow Sea region stood out as the most important priority for effective conservation of migratory shorebirds, but investment in this area alone will not ensure the persistence of species across the flyway. The spatial distribution of conservation investments differed enormously according to the severity of SLR and whether information about flyway connectivity was used to guide the prioritizations. With the rapid ongoing loss of coastal wetlands globally, our method provides insight into efficient conservation planning for migratory species. Gestión Óptima de una Ruta Migratoria de Múltiples Especies de Aves Costeras Sometida a Incremento del Nivel del Mar     

Historical spatial reconstruction of a spawning‐aggregation fishery

Aggregations of individual animals that form for breeding purposes are a critical ecological process for many species, yet these aggregations are inherently vulnerable to exploitation. Studies of the decline of exploited populations that form breeding aggregations tend to focus on catch rate and thus often overlook reductions in geographic range. We tested the hypothesis that catch rate and site occupancy of exploited fish‐spawning aggregations (FSAs) decline in synchrony over time. We used the Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson) spawning‐aggregation fishery in the Great Barrier Reef as a case study. Data were compiled from historical newspaper archives, fisher knowledge, and contemporary fishery logbooks to reconstruct catch rates and exploitation trends from the inception of the fishery. Our fine‐scale analysis of catch and effort data spanned 103 years (1911–2013) and revealed a spatial expansion of fishing effort. Effort shifted offshore at a rate of 9.4 nm/decade, and 2.9 newly targeted FSAs were reported/decade. Spatial expansion of effort masked the sequential exploitation, commercial extinction, and loss of 70% of exploited FSAs. After standardizing for improvements in technological innovations, average catch rates declined by 90.5% from 1934 to 2011 (from 119.4 to 11.41 fish/vessel/trip). Mean catch rate of Spanish mackerel and occupancy of exploited mackerel FSAs were not significantly related. Our study revealed a special kind of shifting spatial baseline in which a contraction in exploited FSAs occurred undetected. Knowledge of temporally and spatially explicit information on FSAs can be relevant for the conservation and management of FSA species.     

Human Migration,Protected Areas,and Conservation Outreach in Tanzania

A recent discussion debates the extent of human in‐migration around protected areas (PAs) in the tropics. One proposed argument is that rural migrants move to bordering areas to access conservation outreach benefits. A counter proposal maintains that PAs have largely negative effects on local populations and that outreach initiatives even if successful present insufficient benefits to drive in‐migration. Using data from Tanzania, we examined merits of statistical tests and spatial methods used previously to evaluate migration near PAs and applied hierarchical modeling with appropriate controls for demographic and geographic factors to advance the debate. Areas bordering national parks in Tanzania did not have elevated rates of in‐migration. Low baseline population density and high vegetation productivity with low interannual variation rather than conservation outreach explained observed migration patterns. More generally we argue that to produce results of conservation policy significance, analyses must be conducted at appropriate scales, and we caution against use of demographic data without appropriate controls when drawing conclusions about migration dynamics. La Migración Humana, Áreas Protegidas y el Alcance de la Conservación en Tanzania     

Strategic Rat Control for Restoring Populations of Native Species in Forest Fragments

Forest fragments have biodiversity value that may be enhanced through management such as control of non‐native predators. However, such efforts may be ineffective, and research is needed to ensure that predator control is done strategically. We used Bayesian hierarchical modeling to estimate fragment‐specific effects of experimental rat control on a native species targeted for recovery in a New Zealand pastoral landscape. The experiment was a modified BACI (before‐after‐control‐impact) design conducted over 6 years in 19 forest fragments with low‐density subpopulations of North Island Robins (Petroica longipes). The aim was to identify individual fragments that not only showed clear benefits of rat control, but also would have a high probability of subpopulation growth even if they were the only fragment managed. We collected data on fecundity, adult and juvenile survival, and juvenile emigration, and modeled the data in an integrated framework to estimate the expected annual growth rate (λ) of each subpopulation with and without rat control. Without emigration, subpopulation growth was estimated as marginal (λ = 0.95–1.05) or negative (λ = 0.74–0.90) without rat control, but it was estimated as positive in all fragments (λ = 1.4–2.1) if rats were controlled. This reflected a 150% average increase in fecundity and 45% average increase in adult female survival. The probability of a juvenile remaining in its natal fragment was 0.37 on average, but varied with fragment connectivity. With juvenile emigration added, 6 fragments were estimated to have a high (>0.8) probability of being self‐sustaining (λ > 1) with rat control. The key factors affecting subpopulation growth rates under rat control were low connectivity and stock fencing because these factors were associated with lower juvenile emigration and higher fecundity, respectively. However, there was also substantial random variation in adult survival among fragments, illustrating the importance of hierarchical modeling for fragmentation studies. Control Estratégico de Ratas para Restaurar Poblaciones de Especies Nativas en Fragmentos de Bosque     

Moral dimensions of human–wildlife conflict

Despite increasing support for conservation globally, controversy over specific conservation policies persists among diverse stakeholders. Investigating the links between morals in relation to conservation can help increase understanding about why humans support or oppose policy, especially related to human–wildlife conflict or human conflict over wildlife. Yet the moral dimension of human–wildlife conflict has mostly gone unconsidered and unmeasured; thus, policy and programmatic efforts to reduce controversy may be missing a key part of the equation. We conducted a web‐based survey (n = 1239 respondents) in Michigan (U.S.A.) to investigate cognitive and emotional influences on the value–behavior relationship. Respondents were identified by their interest and involvement in Michigan wolf management. The survey consisted of questions about values, emotions, cognitions, and behaviors relative to wolves in Michigan. We used path analysis to explore whether emotions and cognitions mediated the relationship between value and behavior. Most respondents attributed intrinsic value to wolves (n = 734) and all life (n = 773) and engaged in behaviors that benefited wolf populations and ecosystems regardless of stakeholder group (e.g., environmentalist, farmer). Attributing intrinsic value to wolves was positively related to favorable emotions toward wolves and cognitive assessments that hunting and trapping of wolves is unacceptable. Despite similarities in attribution of intrinsic value, groups differed in emotions and cognitions about wolf hunting. These differences provide a useful way to predict stakeholder behavior. Our findings may inform interventions aimed at increasing support for wolf management policies and positive interactions among stakeholders and wildlife. Leveraging agreement over intrinsic value may foster cooperation among stakeholders and garner support for controversial conservation policy.     

Portrayal of sustainability principles in the mission statements and on home pages of the world's largest organizations

Conservation can be achieved only if sustainability is embraced as core to organizational cultures. To test the extent to which the related concepts of sustainability, conservation, response to climate change, poverty alleviation, and gender equity have been incorporated into organizational culture, we compared mission statements published from 1990 to 2000 with those published in 2014 for 150 organzations, including conservation nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), aid NGOs, government development agencies, resource extraction companies, and retailers (30 in each category). We also analyzed the 2014 home web pages of each organization. Relative to the earlier period, the frequency with which mission statements mentioned poverty alleviation, biodiversity conservation, and a range of sustainable practices increased only slightly by 2014, particularly among resource extractors and retail companies. Few organizations in any sector had embedded either climate change or gender equity into their mission statements. In addition, the proportional intensity with which any of the aspirations were expressed did not change between periods. For current home pages, conservation NGOs, resource extractors, and government agencies were significantly more likely to acknowledge the importance of matters that were not part of their core business, but few aid agencies or retail companies promoted goals beyond alleviation of crises and profit maximization, respectively. Overall, there has been some progress in recognizing poverty alleviation, biodiversity conservation, and sustainable practices, but gender equity and a determination to reduce impacts on climate change are still rarely promoted as central institutional concerns. Sustainability in general, and biodiversity conservation in particular, will not be achieved unless their importance is more widely apparent in core communication products of organizations.     

Expanding marine protected areas to include degraded coral reefs

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a commonly applied solution to coral reef degradation, yet coral reefs continue to decline worldwide. We argue that expanding the range of MPAs to include degraded reefs (DR‐MPA) could help reverse this trend. This approach requires new ecological criteria for MPA design, siting, and management. Rather than focusing solely on preserving healthy reefs, our approach focuses on the potential for biodiversity recovery and renewal of ecosystem services. The new criteria would help identify sites with the highest potential for recovery and the greatest resistance to future threats (e.g., increased temperature and acidification) and sites that contribute to MPA connectivity. The DR‐MPA approach is a compliment rather than a substitute for traditional MPA design approaches. We believe that the DR‐MPA approach can enhance the natural, or restoration‐assisted, recovery of DRs and their ecosystem services; increase total reef area available for protection; promote more resilient and better‐connected MPA networks; and improve conditions for human communities dependent on MPA ecosystem services.