Landscape change: Perceptions and physical measures

This paper addresses questions of affective responses of residents of rural Arizona to changes in proximate community and riparian landscapes and the congruence of their perceptions of change with physical measures of change in those landscapes. Based on findings and concepts from previous studies, perceptions of change were assessed using a mail survey. Physical measures of land use and vegetation change were obtained from aerial photography for two points in time spanning approximately 13 years and were analyzed using a geographic information system. Significant differences were found in perceptions of change in the community and riparian landscapes. In contrast with previous findings, a majority of respondents found the changes as either improving or having no effect on landscape quality. Those who were more frequent users of the riparian landscape tended to be more aware of changes in it. The findings also suggest challenges for planners and resource managers working in rural areas adjacent to riparian landscapes.     

HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE DELAWARE RWER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Thornthwaite water balance and combinations of temperature and precipitation changes representing climate change were used to estimate changes in seasonal soil-moisture and runoff in the Delaware River basin. Winter warming may cause a greater proportion of precipitation in the northern part of the basin to fall as rain, which may increase winter runoff and decrease spring and summer runoff. Estimates of total annual runoff indicate that a 5 percent increase in precipitation would be needed to counteract runoff decreases resulting from a warming of 2°C; a 15 percent increase for a warming of 4°C. A warming of 2° to 4°C, without precipitation increases, may cause a 9 to 25 percent decrease in runoff. The general circulation model derived changes in annual runoff ranged from ?39 to +9 percent. Results generally agree with those obtained in studies elsewhere. The changes in runoff agree in direction but differ in magnitude. In this humid temperate climate, where precipitation is evenly distributed over the year, decreases in snow accumulation in the northern part of the basin and increases in evapotranspiration throughout the basin could change the timing of runoff and significantly reduce total annual water availability unless precipitation were to increase concurrently.     

THE SENSITWITY OF NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA STREAMFLOW TO CLIMATE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: The sensitivity of streamflow to climate change was investigated in the American, Carson, and Truckee River Basins, California and Nevada. Nine gaging stations were used to represent streamflow in the basins. Annual models were developed by regressing 1961–1991 streamflow data on temperature and precipitation. Climate-change scenarios were used as inputs to the models to determine streamflow sensitivities. Climate-change scenarios were generated from historical time series by modifying mean temperatures by a range of +4°C to—4°C and total precipitation by a range of +25 percent to -25 percent. Results show that streamflow on the warmer, lower west side of the Sierra Nevada generally is more sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes than is streamflow on the colder, higher east side. A 2°C rise in temperature and a 25-percent decrease in precipitation results in stream-flow decreases of 56 percent on the American River and 25 percent on the Carson River. A 2°C decline in temperature and a 25-percent increase in precipitation results in streamflow increases of 102 percent on the American River and 22 percent on the Carson River.     

Model simulations of dissolved oxygen characteristics of Minnesota lakes: Past and future

A deterministic, one-dimensional, unsteady numerical model has been developed, tested, and applied to simulate mean daily dissolved oxygen (DO) characteristics in 27 lake classes in the state of Minnesota. Reaeration and photosynthesis are the oxygen sources, while respiration, sedimentary, and biochemical water column oxygen demand are the sinks of oxygen in the model. The lake classes are differentiated by surface area (A _s), maximum depth (H _max), and trophic status expressed as Secchi depth (Z _s). Because lake stratification is most important to lake oxygen dynamics, simulated DO characteristics are plotted in terms of a stratification parameterA _s/H _max ^0.25 and Secchi depthZ _s. Simulations provide DO profiles on a daily time scale. Specific DO characteristics of ecological and environmental interest are epilimnetic DO, hypolimnetic DO, DO gradient from surface to bottom, and DO minima and maxima. Specific results are as follows: Simulated mean daily and weekly DO values in the epilimnion of all lakes for both past and future climate scenarios are near saturation over the summer season. Hypolimnetic DO values depend strongly on lake morphometry, trophic status, and time throughout the summer season. Future climate conditions are specified as the historical records from 1955 to 1979, adjusted (monthly) by the 2 × CO₂ GISS model output to account for doubling of atmospheric CO₂. With this climate change, weekly averaged epilimnetic DO is projected to drop by less than 2 mg/liter, and will remain above 7 mg/liter throughout the open water season. The hypolimnetic DO reductions after climate change are on the order of 2–8 mg/liter. Periods of anoxia are longer by as much as 80 days. Those changes would alter water quality dynamics in lakes and have a profound effect on lake ecosystems including indigenous fishes. The results presented are useful for evaluating environmental management options.     

Trends and issues in land and water resources management: Setting the agenda for change

The classical model of a paradigm shift is used to explore changes that are occurring in public lands and water resources management. Recent policy developments suggest that the traditional paradigm, which is characterized by sustained yield, is in the process of being invalidated. While no new paradigm has been fully accepted, the emerging paradigm does appear to be based on two principles: ecosystem management and collaborative decision making. Implementation of these two principles is likely to require extensive revision of traditional management practices and institutions. Failure to address these issues could result in adoption of the rhetoric of change without any lasting shift in management practices or professional attitudes.     

Collective action and the traditional village

This article considers the dispute between moral economy and rational peasant theories of agrarian societies in application to problems of collective action. The moral-economy theory holds that traditional peasant society is organized cooperatively through shared moral values and communal institutions; while the rational-peasant theory maintains that peasant society shows the mark of rational individual calculation, leading to free-rider problems that undermine successful collective action. This article offers an abstract model of a traditional village and assesses the applicability of recent qualifications of the collective action argument to this model. It will emerge that the social characteristics of the traditional village embody features that facilitate collective action by rational peasants.     

On the usefulness of life cycle assessment of packaging

In reaction to a paper inEnvironmental Management in which the sense and sensibility of environmental assessments of packaging were questioned, it is argued that these types of assessments may be very useful, provided the relevant types of questions are posed. These boundary conditions are discussed, along with an overview of more recent methodological developments with respect to environmental assessment of products.     

An approach for analysing the potential for material efficiency improvement

Material efficiency improvement saves energy and reduces the consumption of primary resources and reduces the volume of waste. In this article an approach for analysing the potential for material efficiency improvement is proposed and discussed. In this approach the product functions performed by the materials and various improvement measures are taken into account. The potential for material saving and associated energy saving is assessed and evaluated economically. In this paper the approach is tested in an analysis of the potential for material efficiency improvement with respect to plastic packaging in the Netherlands. The technical reduction potential is found to be 34 ± 7% (157 ± 30 ktonne virgin plastics). Realization of this potential would improve the energy efficiency of the lifecycle of plastic packaging by 31% (10 PJ in 1988). From our study we conclude that our approach can indeed be used to investigate the potential for material efficiency improvement. However, a reliable technical and particularly an economical assessment of reduction measures cannot be made until more detailed data become available.     

“暖冬”对农业生产及农业灾害的影响

本文分析了江苏省近几十年来、特别是８０年代以来冬季气温的变化特征，根据农业灾害发生的条件，讨论了“暖冬”对农业生产及农业灾害的影响，为农业生产部门和防灾抗灾部门决策提供科学依据．     

Land-cover change in upper Barataria Basin estuary,Louisiana, 1972-1992: increases in Wetland area

The Barataria Basin, Louisiana, USA, is an extensive wetland and coastal estuary system of great economic and intrinsic value. Although high rates of wetland loss along the coastal margin of the Barataria Basin have been well documented, little information exists on whether freshwater wetlands in the upper basin have changed. Our objectives were to quantify land-cover change in the upper basin over 20 years from 1972–1992 and to determine land-cover transition rates among land-cover types. Using 80-m resolution Landsat MSS data from the North American Landscape Characterization (NALC) data archive, we classified images from three time steps (1972, 1985, 1992) into six land-cover types: agriculture, urban, bottomland hardwood forest, swamp forest, freshwater marsh, and open water. Significant changes in land cover occurred within the upper Barataria Basin over the study period. Urban land increased from 8% to 17% of the total upper basin area, primarily due to conversions from agricultural land, and to a lesser degree, bottomland forest. Swamp forest increased from 30% to 41%, associated with conversions from bottomland hardwood forest and freshwater marsh. Overall, bottomland forest decreased 38% and total wetland area increased 21%. Within the upper Barataria, increases in total wetland area may be due to land subsidence. Based on our results, if present trends in the reduction of bottomland forest land cover were to continue, the upper Barataria Basin may have no bottomland hardwood forests left by the year 2025, as it is subjected to multiple stressors both in the higher elevations (from urbanization) and lower elevations (most likely from land subsidence). These results suggest that changes in the upper freshwater portions of coastal estuaries can be large and quite different from patterns observed in the more saline coastal margins.