Scale,context, and decision making in agricultural adaptation to climate variability and change

This work presents a framework for viewing agricultural adaptation, emphasizing the multiple spatial and temporal scales on which individuals and institutions process information on changes in their environment. The framework is offered as a means to gain perspective on the role of climate variability and change in agricultural adaptation, and developed for a case study of Australian agriculture. To study adaptation issues at the scale of individual farms we developed a simple modelling framework. The model highlights the decision making element of adaptation in light of uncertainty, and underscores the importance of decision information related to climate variability. Model results show that the assumption of perfect information for farmers systematically overpredicts adaptive performance. The results also suggest that farmers who make tactical planting decisions on the basis of historical climate information are outperformed by those who use even moderately successful seasonal forecast information. Analysis at continental scales highlights the prominent role of the decline in economic operating conditions on Australian agriculture. Examples from segments of the agricultural industry in Australia are given to illustrate the importance of appropriate scale attribution in adapting to environmental changes. In particular, adaptations oriented toward short time scale changes in the farming environment (droughts, market fluctuations) can be limited in their efficacy by constraints imposed by broad changes in the soil/water base and economic environment occuring over longer time scales. The case study also makes the point that adaptation must be defined in reference to some goal, which is ultimately a social and political exercise. Overall, this study highlights the importance of allowing more complexity (limited information, risk aversion, cross-scale interactions, mis-attribution of cause and effect, background context, identification of goals) in representing adaptation processes in climate change studies.     

中国东南沿海中生代火山作用基本特征

中国东南沿海自晚侏罗世到白垩纪火山活动分为二期、四个旋回,在空间上有迁移性,在时间上与侵入活动呈交替式演变。建立火山碎屑流等五种岩相模式,岩浆爆发占主导地位,同时存在蒸气岩浆爆发。确定破火山口、火山穹隆和锥火山为火山构造基本类型。由火山作用与区域构造作用、沉积作用控制形成火山沉积洼地、火山构造洼地和火山构造隆起。提出不同类型火山构造组合形式和相互演化关系。火山岩系列属高钾钙碱系列,晚期则具双模式性质。它们的地球化学型式兼具大陆边缘和大陆板内双重特性。     

京津地区能源、大气污染物扩散对区域元素循环的作用

对京津区域１９８０－１９９２年间能源利用状况进行分析，并通过模式计算该区域大气污染物的扩散规律，结果表明，大气污染物随能源利用增加而增加，其增加速率ＮＯｘ大于ＯＳ２，经预测，至２００４年京津地区ＳＯ２排放量增咖１１．４０％，ＮＯｘ增加５６．８０％，由于气象和地形条件所致，该区域内不利于大气污染物远距离输送，这使箱型区域内物料平衡计算可以简化。     

炼油装置运行周期评估技术及应用

炼油装置运行周期评估技术通过统计、分析装置故障数据,计算特定时间段装置的可靠性,进而获得装置可靠性随时间的变化规律和装置可靠性最差设备排序。介绍了该技术在某常减压装置的应用,应用结果表明,该评估技术为科学确定炼油装置运行周期提供了决策依据。     

Integrated environmental assessment and pollution prevention in Vietnam: the case of anthracite production

Using the concept of life cycle analysis, the whole life cycle of anthracite production in Vietnam was assessed and the environmental “hot-spots” were identified. These include (i) dust pollution at coal transfer points or piles in storage; (ii) noise pollution resulting from the usage of heavy equipment, and (iii) high volume of acid and turbid mine water discharged into the environment.Pollution prevention and treatment options were identified and discussed in this study which consists of wet treatment of dust, planning, collection and treatment of mine water, planting of trees for dust and noise reduction as well as minimization of erosion. Some recommendations are made for pollution abatement from coal production and improvement of anthracite production in the region.     

近50年丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化

冰川是丝绸之路经济带中国境内重要的水资源,对该区农业建设和经济发展至关重要。基于修订后的中国第一次冰川编目数据和最新发布的第二次冰川编目数据,对丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化进行分析。结果表明：（1）丝绸之路经济带中国境内现有冰川22523条,面积25516.80 km²,冰储量约2592.85 km³,分别占我国冰川相应总量的46.37%、49.22%和57.39%,其中新疆维吾尔自治区冰川储量最为丰富,共计2366.25 km³。（2）丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川以面积<0.5 km²的冰川数量最多,共计15519条,占冰川总数量的68.90%;面积则以介于1~5 km²冰川为主,共计6833.71 km²,占冰川总面积的26.78%;各山系的冰川退缩海拔高度不同,面积减少速度在各个高度带均有差异。（3）近50年间丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川面积共减少4527.43 km²,变化百分比为-20.88%,有3114条冰川消失,冰川冰储量损失约419.35 km³。（4）丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化整体呈现自西向东加快趋势,减少速率整体上有自西南向东北加快趋势;冰川朝北消失数量大于朝南消失数量,东北方向面积减少最多,东南方向面积减少最快。（5）近50年间丝绸之路经济带中国境内有暖湿化趋势,冬季气温升高速率大于夏季且降水增加幅度小于夏季的气候组合模式,不利于冰川的积累从而导致冰川退缩;冰川发育规模对冰川退缩也有一定影响,但各山系冰川变化驱动力具有空间差异。     

基于行业全产业链评估一份外卖订单的环境影响

构建"生产-运输-使用-废弃处置"的外卖全产业链，通过大样本企业调研与外卖平台大数据分析，计算8个样本城市不同材质与规格的外卖餐盒、餐具、包装袋的市场使用比例，挖掘骑手配送的海量数据，收集城市垃圾处理处置情况，系统评估外卖全过程的环境影响.结果表明，外卖包装物全产业链中生产环节（45%）与废弃处置环节（50%）为环境影响的主要来源，严重程度依次为固废排放、水污染、资源能源消耗和大气污染.所在城市及选用包装物材质的不同，外卖行业造成的环境影响会有显著区别，全产业链上的各环节需相互配合，多主体共同承担环境责任，采取差别化的减缓应对措施.     

生命周期评价数据库分析与建模

基于关系数据库和面向对象程序设计理论建立了生命周期评价数据库系统。通过综合分析生命周期评价数据，根据生命周期评价数据的数据类型，将数据分为产品评价数据、产品档案数据、基础材料数据和影响评价基础数据，相应的设计了4个数据库。运用关系数据库理论分别对4个数据库建立了物理结构模型。     

绿色设计方法——设计领域发展的新趋势

 简要地介绍了设计领域发展的新趋势—绿色设计的基本思想，综述了绿色设计各主要研究领域的现状和问题以及发展趋势，阐明了我国开展绿色设计的研究与应用的必要性与可行性．     

农业资源利用模式间的转换及案例分析

目前我国农业仍然属于资源高耗低效型农业，而农业自然资源是非常有限的，为此必须实现农业资源的高效利用。本文从中观区域尺度上研究了农业资源利用模式及不同利用模式间的转换，通过案例分析认为，农业资源利用模式处于不断演替过程中，其演替具有明显的层次性；在演替过程中，物化资源投入水平不断增加，农业资源利用效率不断提高；与农业资源利用模式相适应的农业资源利用技术体系也具有多样性和层次性。