常德市海绵城市建设示范区雨洪适应性评价与分区

雨洪适应性体现了海绵城市建设的底线约束与生态优先原则,是海绵城市规划中重要的评价标准。采用INVEST模型与GIS技术,进行了研究区的雨洪适应性评价、雨洪适应性的功能分区及安全水平分区。研究表明：（1）从水源涵养、土壤保持和水质净化三个方面进行雨洪适应性评价,并融合雨洪汇流路径与适应性等级,划分雨洪适应性功能分区,体现了雨洪适应系统的源间廊道与基本骨架视角。（2）雨洪安全格局是海绵设施空间形态上的表现,重构不同安全水平雨洪适应性空间,实现了“源—汇”平衡,形成城市雨洪安全系统。（3）雨洪适应性通过水文过程与空间格局耦合,体现了雨洪管控中从微观到宏观层面的协调,对提升城市应对不确定性冲击的自组织能力具有参考意义。     

水土流失风险扰动下区域人地系统适应性研究——以榆林市为例

适应性概念为可持续性科学领域提供了新的研究思维。论文在总结、梳理适应性内涵,整合相关适应性理论与方法的基础上,提出了基于风险扰动的适应性分析框架,采用风险-适应能力指数评估区域人地系统适应性,将系统适应性分解为风险干扰和适应能力（包括生态、经济、社会能力3个参数）两个维度,从研究区水土流失风险出发,构建系统适应性评价指标体系。通过美国通用土壤流失方程（USLE）与适应性函数模型,分析榆林市水土流失风险以及人地系统适应能力时空演化特征,在系统适应性水平评估基础上,揭示榆林市不同时期人地系统适应性演化的驱动因素。研究结果表明：1）2000—2011年榆林市水土流失风险显著下降,但时空演化明显,到2011年高流失区转移分布于西南部、长城沿线等县域;2）12 a间榆林市系统适应性水平整体呈增高趋势,但空间上出现两极分化,呈现“西北高、东南低”的格局,其中北部县区（根据榆林市当地分区,北部县区包括府谷、神木、榆阳、横山、靖边、定边6县区;南部县域包括佳县、米脂、吴堡、子洲、绥德、清涧6县。）在生态、经济和社会子系统能力上明显高于南部,但南部县域适应性水平提升较北部更为明显;3）人地系统适应性演化驱动力由社会经济发展转化为生态环境修复、经济能力增强和社会保障提升的共同作用。     

应用ANFIS预测蠕虫反应器的污泥减量速率并优化其运行条件

利用水生蠕虫的捕食作用可以有效地实现污泥减量.为了研究环境条件波动对蠕虫捕食污泥减量效率的影响,应用自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)和人工神经网络(ANN)模型分别预测蠕虫反应器的污泥减量速率.结果表明,溶解氧浓度(D0)、温度(T)、蠕虫密度和污泥负荷是蠕虫捕食过程的主要影响因素,通过性能比较得出ANFIS模型预测值与实验测定值间具有更好的一致性,其相关系数(r)为0.82,绝对平均误差百分比(MAPE)为71.5％,均方根误差(RMSE)为16.7.根据ANFIS模型的预测结果,得出蠕虫反应器的最适运行条件为:DO 1.8 ～3.1mg·L-1,温度18.4～21.7℃,蠕虫密度低于1.7 g·cm-2(以湿重计),污泥负荷563～734 mg·g-1(以TSS计),在此操作条件下获得的污泥减量速率均高于100 mg· g-1·d-1.     

自适应滑模控制器的EPS侧风反向控制研究

为了研究在侧风影响下汽车正向助力转向偏移过大而威胁驾驶员行车安全的问题,提出一种将反向助力和自适应滑模控制器相结合的控制方法。该方法通过驾驶员转矩和汽车车速的配比设计反向助力特性曲线,并利用自适应滑模电机控制器控制电机输出助力转矩,使汽车在转向过程中,增加了驾驶员转向的阻尼感,也同时提高了驾驶员对转向电机的实时操纵性。将其应用到汽车EPS系统中,仿真结果表明,在不同的车速、风速下,采用反向控制策略不仅减小了方向盘角度、齿条位移,还减小了汽车横摆角速度,可以显著地改善汽车行驶的稳定性和安全性。     

An empirical approach to assessing generic adaptive capacity to tropical cyclone risk in coastal districts of India

Differences in impacts of climate hazards across exposed units are determined by many factors including the severity of the hazard itself, the population that is exposed to the hazard and the coping capacity of the exposed units to the hazard. Coping capacity or adaptive capacity results from a combination of development status (generic capacity) and interventions pertinent to the hazard (specific capacity). This paper explores the extent to which the generic adaptive capacity may explain the variation in tropical cyclone impacts. Therefore this paper offers an empirical approach by which adaptive capacity may be measured and validated against actual outcomes. Results not only validate the role of generic adaptive capacity in explaining variations in impact but also reveal that general development indicators are not very important as far as predicting outcomes is concerned. Those indicators of development that can be linked to the impact process are significant in explaining and predicting impact. This can help identify those aspects of generic adaptive capacity which are important from the perspective of policy action for enhancing adaptive capacity to a particular climate hazard.

基于遗传模拟退火算法的频率指配算法研究

在复杂电磁环境中进行频率指配是频谱管理中极为重要且困难的研究课题。提出了一种基于遗传模拟退火算法的频率指配算法,以基本遗传算法为基础,采用自适应的交叉概率和变异概率,将遗传操作和模拟退火操作相结合,从而克服了一般遗传算法的不足,可有效避免陷入局部最优并最终趋于全局优化。理论分析和仿真结果表明,该算法能够给整个无线电网络合理地指配频率,同时能有效地控制算法自身的收敛速度,与传统的指配算法相比,新算法在指配效果上有了很大的提高。     

Antipoaching standards in onshore hydrocarbon concessions drawn from a Central African case study

Unsustainable hunting outside protected areas is threatening tropical biodiversity worldwide and requires conservationists to engage increasingly in antipoaching activities. Following the example of ecocertified logging companies, we argue that other extractive industries managing large concessions should engage in antipoaching activities as part of their environmental management plans. Onshore hydrocarbon concessions should also adopt antipoaching protocols as a standard because they represent a biodiversity threat comparable to logging. We examined the spatiotemporal patterns of small‐ and large‐mammal poaching in an onshore oil concession in Gabon, Central Africa, with a Bayesian occupancy model based on signs of poaching collected from 2010 to 2015 on antipoaching patrols. Patrol locations were initially determined based on local intelligence and past patrol successes (adaptive management) and subsequently with a systematic sampling of the concession. We generated maps of poaching probability in the concession and determined the temporal trends of this threat over 5 years. The spatiotemporal patterns of large‐ and small‐mammal poaching differed throughout the concession, and likely these groups will need different management strategies. By elucidating the relationship between site‐specific sampling effort and detection probability, the Bayesian method allowed us to set goals for future antipoaching patrols. Our results indicate that a combination of systematic sampling and adaptive management data is necessary to infer spatiotemporal patterns with the statistical method we used. On the basis of our case study, we recommend hydrocarbon companies interested in implementing efficient antipoaching activities in their onshore concessions to lay the foundation of long‐needed industry standards by: adequately measuring antipoaching effort; mixing adaptive management and balanced sampling; setting goals for antipoaching effort; pairing patrols with large‐mammal monitoring; supporting antipoaching patrols across the landscape; restricting access to their concessions; performing random searches for bushmeat and mammal products at points of entry; controlling urban and agricultural expansion; supporting bushmeat alternatives; and supporting land‐use planning.     

江苏省沿江城市饮用水系统适应能力评估

在对饮用水系统适应能力界定的基础上,基于水源地、供水、用水、排污处理和技术5个子系统的适应性要素构建沿江城市饮用水系统适应能力评价指标体系和评价模型,采用分指数与综合指数法评估系统的适应能力水平、存在问题,并据此对江苏省沿江地区城市饮用水系统适应能力分异特征、类型及影响因素进行深入探讨。结果表明,南部环太湖地区城市饮用水系统适应能力高于中部滨江地区,北部地区适应能力最低;从各子系统适应能力得分情况来看,需加大对沿江地区水源地的保护力度,合理规划港口、码头等的布设;加快北部地区供排基础设施的建设,提高风险应急防范能力;南部环湖地区重点开展节水型企业与生态工业园区创建。     

Developing a theory of change for a community‐based response to illegal wildlife trade

The escalating illegal wildlife trade (IWT) is one of the most high‐profile conservation challenges today. The crisis has attracted over US$350 million in donor and government funding in recent years, primarily directed at increased enforcement. There is growing recognition among practitioners and policy makers of the need to engage rural communities that neighbor or live with wildlife as key partners in tackling IWT. However, a framework to guide such community engagement is lacking. We developed a theory of change (ToC) to guide policy makers, donors, and practitioners in partnering with communities to combat IWT. We identified 4 pathways for community‐level actions: strengthen disincentives for illegal behavior, increase incentives for wildlife stewardship, decrease costs of living with wildlife, and support livelihoods that are not related to wildlife. To succeed the pathways, all require strengthening of enabling conditions, including capacity building, and of governance. Our ToC serves to guide actions to tackle IWT and to inform the evaluation of policies. Moreover, it can be used to foster dialogue among IWT stakeholders, from local communities to governments and international donors, to develop a more effective, holistic, and sustainable community‐based response to the IWT crisis.     

Atmospheric Change and Biodiversity: Co-Networks and Networking

Canada responded to the Global Biodiversity Convention by completing the Canadian Biodiversity Strategy in 1995. At the same time, Environment Canada also completed a national Science Assessment on Biodiversity. During this period, the Smithsonian Institution, in partnership with Parks and Environment Canada, initiated the implementation of a global biodiversity monitoring program in Canada. Under the auspices of the United Nations Man and the Biosphere Program, the SI/MAB monitoring protocols and plots have spread across Canada at an unprecedented rate. National champions in the science and educational sectors, working within an inter-disciplinary ecological framework, have guided the development, education, quality control and sharing of atmosphere-biodiversity observations electronically.Atmospheric-Biodiversity Networks and Networking have traditionally operated within separate mandates with little degree of integration. Air-Bio Networks were designed within an integrated framework to better understand the atmospheric stress on biodiversity and the adaptation actions, nationally and regionally. Detailed examples of the cumulative effects of climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, acid deposition, ground-level ozone, suspended particulate matter and hazardous air pollutants on biodiversity will be discussed using a Southern Ontario case study. In addition, recommendations will be presented for future paired SI/MAB plots, linked networks and networking for adaptation within the context of climate, chemical and ecological gradients.