Optimal Marking of Threatened Species to Balance Benefits of Information with Impacts of Marking

Abstract: Marking animals so that they are uniquely identifiable provides information that may assist conservation efforts. Nevertheless, some methods used to mark animals can be harmful. We used mathematical methods to assess the trade‐off between the impact of marking threatened species and the value of the information gained. We considered the case where 2 management strategies, each aiming to improve a species' survival rate, are implemented in an experimental phase. The results of the experiment were applied in a postexperimental management phase. We expressed the expected number of survivors in both phases mathematically, accounting for any mortality caused by the experiment, and determined the proportion of animals to mark to maximize this number. The optimal number of animals to mark increased with the number of individuals available for the experiment and with the number of individuals to be managed in the future. The optimal solution was to mark only 25% of the animals when there were 1000 individuals available for the experiment, the results were used to manage 2000 individuals, and marking caused mortality of 1%. Fewer animals were marked when there were fewer animals in either phase or when marking caused higher mortality. In the case of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix), the optimal proportion to mark was <1 if the mortality rate was >0.15%–1%, with the threshold depending on the number of animals in the experimental and postexperimental phases. The trade‐off between gaining more information about a species and possibly harming individuals of that species by marking them is difficult to assess subjectively. We show how to determine objectively the optimal proportion of animals to mark to enhance the management of threatened species.     

Development paths of drylands: thresholds and sustainability

Drylands (41 and 35% of global land and population, respectively) have the lowest biological productivity of any ecosystem, contain populations with the highest growth rates on earth, and share a significant fraction of global poverty for which desertification is implicated. A global assessment of the available information indicates that the inherent low productivity of drylands, when combined with other adverse factors, can generate poverty. It additionally indicates that while the drylands may exist in a locally stable and sustainable state, this is readily destabilized by non-linear, threshold-crossing transitions to an alternative steady-state leading to desertification, poverty and conflicts. The “desertification paradigm” (human and climatological pressures driving overexploitation of land resources, leading to desertification, poverty and reduced security) is challenged by its “counter-paradigm” (adversity elicits innovation, leading to ingenuous solutions for avoiding desertification). But the latter does not account for the inevitability of continued and increasing pressure on the finite dryland resources, expected to be further exacerbated by a globally increasing need for agricultural land. A companion paper points out that this situation can be avoided by reducing dependence on land productivity, through adoption of “alternative livelihoods.” These livelihoods, while economically advantageous, reduce pressure on land resources.     

Predicting the Probability of Outbreeding Depression

Abstract: Fragmentation of animal and plant populations typically leads to genetic erosion and increased probability of extirpation. Although these effects can usually be reversed by re‐establishing gene flow between population fragments, managers sometimes fail to do so due to fears of outbreeding depression (OD). Rapid development of OD is due primarily to adaptive differentiation from selection or fixation of chromosomal variants. Fixed chromosomal variants can be detected empirically. We used an extended form of the breeders’ equation to predict the probability of OD due to adaptive differentiation between recently isolated population fragments as a function of intensity of selection, genetic diversity, effective population sizes, and generations of isolation. Empirical data indicated that populations in similar environments had not developed OD even after thousands of generations of isolation. To predict the probability of OD, we developed a decision tree that was based on the four variables from the breeders’ equation, taxonomic status, and gene flow within the last 500 years. The predicted probability of OD in crosses between two populations is elevated when the populations have at least one of the following characteristics: are distinct species, have fixed chromosomal differences, exchanged no genes in the last 500 years, or inhabit different environments. Conversely, the predicted probability of OD in crosses between two populations of the same species is low for populations with the same karyotype, isolated for <500 years, and that occupy similar environments. In the former case, we recommend crossing be avoided or tried on a limited, experimental basis. In the latter case, crossing can be carried out with low probability of OD. We used crosses with known results to test the decision tree and found that it correctly identified cases where OD occurred. Current concerns about OD in recently fragmented populations are almost certainly excessive.     

Disciplined Planning,Structured Participation,and Collaborative Modeling — Applying Shared Vision Planning to Water Resources

Participatory planning applied to water resources has sparked significant interest and debate during the last decade. Recognition that models play a significant role in the formulation and implementation of design and management strategies has encouraged the profession to consider how such models can be best implemented. Shared Vision Planning (SVP) is a disciplined planning approach that combines traditional water resources planning methodologies with innovations such as structured public participation and the use of collaborative modeling, resulting in a more complete understanding and an integrative decision support tool. This study reviews these three basic components of SVP and explains how they are incorporated into a unified planning approach. The successful application of SVP is explored in three studies involving planning challenges: the National Drought Study, the Lake Ontario‐St. Lawrence River Study, and the Apalachicola‐Chattahoochee‐Flint/Alabama‐Coosa‐Tallapoosa River Basin Study. The article concludes by summarizing the advantages and limitations of this planning approach.     

Goodbye to natural resource-based livelihoods? Crossing the rural/urban divide

Life in proximity to a growing city can be especially difficult for those rural people who are poor. Findings from sustained research around three cities of the South illustrate how peri-urban conditions can create pressure for livelihood change. People were pressed further into a cash-based economy for which they were ill prepared. Surprisingly, agriculture remained important, even though urban expansion changed natural resource-based livelihoods, especially by taking land. The inevitable livelihood transitions were easier if there was support for both familiar and new natural resource-based activities, orienting production towards urban markets. Successful change was associated with greater diversification of income strands, rapid cash returns and bridging opportunities. Participatory planning of livelihood changes and local NGO inputs were advantageous. These findings are important for pro-poor development policy affecting peri-urban populations and may inform rural to urban migration policy.     

Capacity of Management Plans for Aquatic Invasive Species to Integrate Climate Change

Abstract:  The consequences of climate change will affect aquatic ecosystems, including aquatic invasive species (AIS) that are already affecting these ecosystems. Effects on AIS include range shifts and more frequent overwintering of species. These effects may create new challenges for AIS management. We examined available U.S. state AIS management plans to assess each program's capacity to adapt to climate-change effects. We scored the adaptive capacity of AIS management plans on the basis of whether they addressed potential impacts resulting from climate change; demonstrated a capacity to adapt to changing conditions; provided for monitoring strategies; provided for plan revisions; and described funding for implementation. Most plans did not mention climate change specifically, but some did acknowledge climatic boundaries of species and ecosystem sensitivities to changing conditions. Just under half the plans mentioned changing environmental conditions as a factor, most frequently as part of research activities. Activities associated with monitoring showed the highest capacity to include information on changing conditions, and future revisions to management plans are likely to be the easiest avenue through which to address climate-change effects on AIS management activities. Our results show that programs have the capacity to incorporate information about climate-change effects and that the adaptive-management framework may be an appropriate approach.     

Rural households’ livelihoods diversification through termite utilization in depressed region of Zimbabwe

This study sought to examine the utility of termites to rural households in depressed regions of Bikita, Zimbabwe. Colonialism and its spread of European culture had viewed entomophagy with contempt resulting in reduced utilization and consumption of termites in most colonies. In our quest to understand how people in depressed regions utilized termites, both quantitative and qualitative methodologies were employed. Questionnaires and in-depth interviews were used to gather data during field work. Purposive and snowball sampling techniques were used in recruiting respondents. Excel and content analysis were used in data presentation and analysis. Results revealed that dampwood and drywood termites are climatic indicators for the rural communal farmers, a low-cost technology in weather forecasting. Subterrain and mold builders provide manure, relish, and are medicinal in nature. They are traded for income generation, and as for the poor, harvesting, processing, storage, and marketing is cost effective. Though considered nostalgic foods, most respondents highlighted that selling termites complimented other off-farm livelihood activities. Termite consumption and utilization provide a sustainable way for livelihood diversification in depressed regions and has partly addressed problems of food insecurity.     

海洋环境水下电磁场基本特性及抑制方法研究

目的掌握环境水下电磁场的基本特性以及适宜的降噪方法。方法从时域、频域、相关与极化等方面对某海域进行分析,并对得到的大量海洋环境水下电磁场特性进行总结,基于分析结果,研究自适应线谱增强技术在海洋环境水下电磁场抑制方面的应用。结果海洋环境水下电磁场具有一定的规律性和随机性,利用自适应线谱增强技术,信号强度增加了6 dB。结论通过对环境电磁场基本特性以及抑制方法的研究,可以对舰船测试中环境电磁场的影响程度进行评估,并提高目标的探测能力。     

Where artisanal mines and forest meet: Socio‐economic and environmental impacts in the Congo Basin

While mineral exploitation can provide significant income and employment, it may negatively impact the environment, being ultimately detrimental to livelihoods in the long term. The consequences of mining are of concern in high value forest ecosystems such as the Sangha Tri‐National (TNS) landscape covering Cameroon, the Central African Republic and Republic of the Congo. This paper captures the socio‐economic and environmental impacts of small‐scale mining in the TNS. Using structured questionnaires, consultations and observation, diamonds and gold were found to contribute directly to the livelihoods of at least 5% of the landscape's population. Although up to eight income‐generating strategies are used, mining contributes on average to 65% of total income and is used mainly to meet basic needs. A gold miner's average income is US$ 3.10 a day, and a diamond miner earns US$ 3.08, making them slightly wealthier than an average Cameroonian and three times wealthier than an average non‐miner in the TNS. Environmental impacts were temporary, low impact and of limited scale. However, with mining likely to increase in the near future, an increasing population and miners' low environmental awareness, measures are needed to ensure and reinforce the positive impact of artisanal mining on livelihoods and maintain its low environmental footprint in the TNS landscape.     

流域水质管理优化决策模型研究

针对目前流域水污染难以有效控制的局面,依据已有的流域水文、水动力、水质、水生态相关机理模拟模型的研究,在考虑了流域社会经济发展条件的基础上,构建了流域水质管理优化决策模型框架体系.基于该框架体系,本文从简单流域系统优化模型、模拟与优化联合模型和时空尺度复杂优化模型3个方面对流域优化决策模型的研究发展历程进行综述,并指出其各自在发展过程中所出现的问题.最后,提出了优化决策模型面临的瓶颈问题,并从模型结构简化和适应性管理两个方面提出了相关的解决思路.