Agrometeorology from science to extension: Assessment of needs and provision of services

After a historical introduction, recent achievements in agrometeorology and their limitations are highlighted. It is then discussed what determines what we do in agrometeorology. It is argued that the needs in the livelihood of farmers should push the scientific support systems and it is exemplified that this is possible. This analysis has serious consequences for science, training, education and extension in agrometeorology. This applies most strongly for developing countries or tropical studies elsewhere. Farmers’ livelihoods should be connected through agrometeorological services. Farmer or Climate Field Schools are introduced as a new approach to do so. Examples from China are given in which such schools or classes could be used. Finally a pilot project approach for agrometeorological services is discussed in which this could be prepared.     

基于改进蝴蝶算法和社会力模型的多出口疏散模型研究*

为提高多出口场景下行人疏散效率和精度,基于蝴蝶算法和社会力模型,提出一种新的应急疏散仿真路径规划方法。在原有社会力模型中,考虑距离出口远近及行人所处位置拥挤度对运动过程中期望速度的影响,引入速度调节因子,描述行人在疏散中的期望速度变化;针对蝴蝶算法中后期收敛速度慢和易陷入局部最优的缺陷,提出自适应感知概率参数以增强局部搜索和全局搜索之间的平衡;在每轮迭代结束时引入迭代局部搜索策略,扰动局部最优解获得中间状态,并重新搜索上述中间状态得到全局最优解。研究结果表明:提出的应急疏散仿真路径规划方法在多出口环境下能够更有效地利用出口资源,提高疏散效率。     

Why keep lions instead of livestock? Assessing wildlife tourism‐based payment for ecosystem services involving herders in the Maasai Mara,Kenya

This paper examines the effects of wildlife tourism‐based payments for ecosystem services (PES) on poverty, wealth inequality and the livelihoods of herders in the Maasai Mara Ecosystem in south‐western Kenya. It uses the case of Olare Orok Conservancy PES programme in which pastoral landowners have agreed to voluntary resettlement and exclusion of livestock grazing from their sub‐divided lands. These lands are set aside for wildlife tourism, in return for direct monetary payments by a coalition of five commercial tourism operators. Results show that, on the positive side, PES is the most equitable income source that promotes income diversification and buffers households from the livestock income declines during periods of severe drought, such as in 2008‐2009. Without accounting for the opportunity costs, the magnitude of the PES cash transfer to households is, on average, sufficient to close the poverty gap. The co‐benefits of PES implementation include the creation of employment opportunities in the conservancy and provision of social services. There is however a need to mitigate the negative effects of PES, including the widening inequality in income between PES and non‐PES households and the leakages resulting from the displacement of settlements and livestock to currently un‐subdivided pastoral commons.     

Managing climate change vulnerabilities: formal institutions and knowledge use as determinants of adaptive capacity at the local level in Sweden

Though managing vulnerabilities posed by climate change calls for effective strategies and measures, its challenges have hitherto not been fully understood. In Sweden, municipalities have recently started incorporating vulnerability management into their political and administrative agendas. This study discusses such experiences and explores how institutional determinants may influence adaptive capacity within a local case study area, to illustrate emerging challenges and opportunities for Swedish municipalities in managing climate vulnerabilities. Specifically, formal institutional structure and the use of knowledge are analysed, concluding that vulnerability management often is focused on technical and reactive fixes, due to limited co-operation between local sector organisations, lack of local co-ordination, and an absence of methods and traditions to build institutional knowledge. Even so, opportunities, such as a high capacity to examine risks to technical systems and important establishments which in turn facilitates protection of technical infrastructure exposed to climate variability and change, also exist.     

Green jobs,livelihoods and the post-carbon economy in African cities

This article examines the potential contribution of household scale off-grid renewable energy generation to the post-carbon economy. The large-scale focus of the green jobs agenda in high-income countries obscures how small-scale technologies can be a transformative source of employment in developing economies. Debates about what constitutes a green job and their value leaves out the everyday practice of green livelihoods carried out by the urban poor across the African continent in unfavourable institutional contexts where nonrenewable fuel is subsidised and renewable energy inputs are heavily taxed. The article presents experiences from field work in several countries, including Egypt, Nigeria and Kenya to provide practical examples of communities pursuing strategies of income generation, community empowerment and environmental preservation. We argue that scholars and practitioners concerned with both social justice and environmental preservation should embrace a definition of green jobs that is bottom-up or people-centred. The grassroots experiences highlighted illustrate the important role of non-governmental organisations in supporting transformative, locally sustainable green employment and livelihoods by piloting demonstration projects, fostering innovation, conducting research, forming coalitions and engaging in advocacy when local institutions and market conditions make both consumers and providers risk averse to off-grid renewable energy adoption.     

Optimization of the Resources Management in Fighting Wildfires

Wildfires lead to important economic, social, and environmental losses, especially in areas of Mediterranean climate where they are of a high intensity and frequency. Over the past 30 years there has been a dramatic surge in the development and use of fire spread models. However, given the chaotic nature of environmental systems, it is very difficult to develop real-time fire-extinguishing models. This article proposes a method of optimizing the performance of wildfire fighting resources such that losses are kept to a minimum. The optimization procedure includes discrete simulation algorithms and Bayesian optimization methods for discrete and continuous problems (simulated annealing and Bayesian global optimization). Fast calculus algorithms are applied to provide optimization outcomes in short periods of time such that the predictions of the model and the real behavior of the fire, combat resources, and meteorological conditions are similar. In addition, adaptive algorithms take into account the chaotic behavior of wildfire so that the system can be updated with data corresponding to the real situation to obtain a new optimum solution. The application of this method to the Northwest Forest of Madrid (Spain) is also described. This application allowed us to check that it is a helpful tool in the decision-making process.     

Risk and the neoliberal state: why post-Mitch lessons didn't reduce El Salvador's earthquake losses

Although El Salvador suffered light losses from Hurricane Mitch in 1998, it benefited from the increased international aid and encouragement for advance planning, especially mitigation and prevention interventions. Thus, one would have supposed, El Salvador would have been in a very advantageous position, able more easily than its economically crippled neighbours, Honduras and Nicaragua, to implement the 'lessons of Mitch'. A review of the recovery plan tabled by the El Salvador government following the earthquakes of early 2001 shows that despite the rhetoric in favour of 'learning the lessons of Mitch', very little mitigation and prevention had actually been put in place between the hurricane (1998) and the earthquakes (2001). The recovery plan is analysed in terms of the degree to which it deals with root causes of disaster vulnerability, namely, the economic and political marginality of much of the population and environmental degradation. An explanation for the failure to implement mitigation and preventive actions is traced to the adherence by the government of El Salvador to an extreme form of neoliberal, free market ideology, and the deep fissures and mistrust in a country that follow a long and bloody civil war.     

Re-framing risk: the changing context of disaster mitigation and preparedness

This issue of Disasters explores the roles of NGOs and other actors in disaster mitigation and preparedness and also reviews broad international trends in risk management and disaster prevention. The need to address risk, and with that the motivation to improve disaster mitigation and preparedness, has tended to fall between the cracks of grander frameworks of development co-operation and humanitarian assistance. Despite the seemingly glaring need to reduce the horrific impact of floods, droughts and wars, disaster mitigation and preparedness have neither the allure of directly 'saving lives', nor of providing an 'escape from poverty'. There are, however, signs that risk management is becoming a mainstream concern. Factors such as the need to address factors that do not fit into traditional slots on the relief-development continuum, the rising economic costs of disasters and a growing acknowledgement that aid will never cover more than a small fraction of the costs of disasters are all leading to new approaches, priorities and institutional configurations. A realisation that dealing with risk and insecurity is a central part of how poor people develop their livelihood strategies has begun to position disaster mitigation and preparedness within many poverty alleviation agendas. A number of long-standing challenges remain; most of all, the complexities of maintaining the political will that is needed to ensure that risk management becomes more than a passing fad.     

USING TECHNICAL ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT TO IMPROVE DESIGN GUIDELINES FOR URBAN INSTREAM STRUCTURES1

ABSTRACT: Adaptive management is a heuristic approach to treating stream restoration projects as continuous, cyclic experiments, yielding results to be incorporated into future decisions. This comprehensive assessment views failures as surprises that are valuable lessons. Monitoring, evaluation of data, and communication of results are critical; the monitoring results trigger feedback mechanisms to invoke adaptation to the newly acquired information and communication of new hypotheses, treatments, or policies. The principles of adaptive management were applied to a monitoring study of three urban stream restoration sites in Maryland. Data were collected and evaluated for various restoration techniques, including vanes, cross vanes, step pools, root wads, imbricated riprap walls, and coir fiber rolls. Improvements to the existing Maryland design guidelines and policies were developed as the feedback mechanism. With the increasing application of adaptive management in stream restoration efforts, it is likely that repeated failures will be prevented and future restoration projects will be more successful in achieving their goals.     

重金属对蚕豆(vicia faba)根尖的核酸含量及核酸酶活性影响的研究

Pb~(2+)、Cd~(2+)、Zn~(2+)在低浓度作用下,随处理浓度的升高,刺激蚕豆(Vicia faba)DNA含量(处理浓度分别低于10.0、0.50、50.0ppm)和RNA含量(处理浓度分别低于10.0、50.0、50.0ppm),DNase活性(处理浓度均低于10.0ppm)和RNase活性(处理浓度分别低于20.0、10.0、50.0ppm)相应地升高;当处理浓度超过相应浓度时,DNA和RNA含量以及DNase与RNase活性随浓度升高而降低。Hg~(2+)在小于0.05ppm时使RNase活性升高,高于该浓度使其降低,其它各指标无上述规律性变化。重金属对核酸代谢的影响结果取决于植物组织的适应性反应与金属离子的毒性反应的强度。文章还讨论了金属离子特征和可能存在的不同代谢活动的抗性诱导体系对植物毒性的影响,以及蛋白质的代谢活动对植物适应性水平的影响。