Positive Interactions Between Irrawaddy Dolphins and Artisanal Fishers in the Chilika Lagoon of Eastern India are Driven by Ecology,Socioeconomics, and Culture

In human-dominated landscapes, interactions and perceptions towards wildlife are influenced by multidimensional drivers. Understanding these drivers could prove useful for wildlife conservation. We surveyed the attitudes and perceptions of fishers towards threatened Irrawaddy dolphins (Orcaella brevirostris) at Chilika Lagoon India. To validate the drivers of fisher perceptions, we : (1) observed dolphin foraging behavior at stake nets, and (2) compared catch per unit effort (CPUE) and catch income of fishers from stake nets in the presence and absence of foraging dolphins. We found that fishers were mostly positive towards dolphins, believing that dolphins augmented their fish catch and using culture to express their perceptions. Foraging dolphins were observed spending half their time at stake nets and were associated with significantly higher catch income and CPUE of mullet (Liza sp.), a locally preferred food fish species. Wildlife conservation efforts should use the multidimensional drivers of human–wildlife interactions to involve local stakeholders in management.     

A study on the dilemmas of resource utilization and tourism in Africa

This paper explores,explains and discusses issues around the dilemma between local conservation of natural resources(often,endangered species and habitats)and tourism needs in Africa.Often and in constitutional terms,local people have a right to exploit and use resources endowed in their local area.However,tourists often are interested in viewing the vegetation and animal resources undisturbed.Inevitably,there is an undeclared animosity of values and interests between local communities and tourists and state agencies.As a result,the dilemma is thus of governance.The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the governance dilemma of resource utilization and tourism in Africa in a bid to create an informed stewardship framework for sustainability.This is achieved by way of case studies and narratives from Africa.As such,this paper will be a review literature on how different communities perceive tourism and derive livelihoods from their immediate environment.It also explains how the external factors influence local needs and interests.A more sustainable and operational framework that reduces friction among stakeholders is suggested.     

自适应FCM土壤表层重金属污染评价——以南京市炼油厂及生活区为例

采用自适应模糊C均值聚类(FCM)挖掘土壤重金属的污染程度信息,以实现污染程度分类数的自动获取,确保类别划分的合理性,真实地反映重金属污染的空间聚集特征.以江苏省南京市炼油厂及生活区为研究对象,采集土壤中Cr、Cd、Ni、Pb、Zn、Cu重金属浓度值,首先运用自适应FCM对浓度值进行聚类分析,然后利用地统计学空间插值,揭示污染的空间聚集性.结果表明,研究区存在不同程度的污染,自适应FCM算法比传统聚类算法能更合理地划分重金属污染程度,挖掘出样本潜在的污染信息,可为分析污染成因及土壤环境治理修复提供参考.     

Constructing “not Implausible” Climate and Economic Scenarios for Egypt

A space of “not-implausible” scenarios for Egypt's future under climate change is defined along two dimensions. One depicts representative climate change and climate variability scenarios that span the realm of possibility. Some would not be very threatening. Others portend dramatic reductions in average flows into Lake Nassar and associated increases in the likelihood of year to year shortfalls below critical coping thresholds; these would be extremely troublesome, especially if they were cast in the context of increased political instability across the entire Nile Basin. Still others depict futures along which relatively routine and relatively inexpensive adaptation might be anticipated. The ability to adapt to change and to cope with more severe extremes would, however, be linked inexorably to the second set of social–political–economic scenarios. The second dimension, defined as “anthropogenic” social/economic/political scenarios describe the holistic environment within which the determinants of adaptive capacity for water management, agriculture, and coastal zone management must be assessed. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

基于主体的建模方法在环境学科中的研究进展

基于主体的建模方法(ABM)通过自下而上的仿真模拟,考察系统中微观层面异质性主体的状态和行为特征、主体之间的交互、主体与环境的作用,来表征系统宏观现象的涌现,是进行复杂系统模拟和政策评价的重要工具。本文在大量文献调研的基础上,总结了ABM在水文领域、土地资源管理、大气污染防治及环境政策评价等方面的研究进展,归纳了其在主体设计、交互关系与规则、系统环境特征等建模范式方面的共性,论述了该方法对环境系统建模分析的重要意义。     

Criminalization of “galamsey” and livelihoods in Ghana: Limits and consequences

The fact that the artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) sector in Ghana is driven largely by poverty means that the sector is a major source of livelihood for people in mining communities across the country. However, given the various social and environmental problems associated with the ASM sector, there is now an emerging consensus that the formalization of the sector would not only allow for these associated problems to be addressed but also ensures that the sector contributes to sustainable development and safeguard the livelihood of local communities. While a large body of extant literature has examined the challenges and opportunities facing the process of formalization, the question of the criminalization of the sector and its consequences for local livelihood has received only limited attention. Drawing from primary data collected during fieldwork in Ghana, this study examined the livelihood implications of the ban on galamsey in the Tarkwa-Nsuaem Municipality in South-Western Ghana from the perspectives of local communities and other key stakeholders. The study reveals that the ban on galamsey has imposed significant socio-economic hardships on the people and appears to be entrenching poverty rather than sustainable development. The study considers the theoretical and practical implications of the findings for sustainable livelihood enhancement in developing countries.     

Organisational learning and self-adaptation in dynamic disaster environments

This paper examines the problems associated with inter-organisational learning and adaptation in the dynamic environments that characterise disasters. The research uses both qualitative and quantitative methods to investigate whether organisational learning took place during and in the time in between five disaster response operations in Turkey. The availability of information and its exchange and distribution within and among organisational actors determine whether self-adaptation happens in the course of a disaster response operation. Organisational flexibility supported by an appropriate information infrastructure creates conditions conducive to essential interaction and permits the flow of information. The study found that no significant organisational learning occurred within Turkish disaster management following the earthquakes in Erzincan (1992), Dinar (1995) and Ceyhan (1998). By contrast, the 'symmetry-breaking' Marmara earthquake of 1999 initiated a 'double loop' learning process that led to change in the organisational, technical and cultural aspects of Turkish disaster management, as revealed by the Duzce earthquake response operations.     

基于CAS视角的供应链环境协同治理研究

为探究供应链环境协同治理问题,本文从复杂适应系统视角分析了供应链环境协同治理中内部主体之间以及内外部主体间的协同作用机理,以此为基础构建了供应链环境协同治理模型。为探究协同治理机制在该模型中的实际成效,本文运用多主体仿真技术,对二级供应链模型进行仿真模拟,验证了协同治理在企业运营发展以及供应链整体环境绩效方面的提升作用,并针对协同模型中制造商零售商间减排成本分担系数进行调整,检验上下游企业间减排成本分担系数变化对供应链环境治理效果的影响。仿真结果显示,虽然供应链整体利润随着制造商承担的减排成本增加而增加,但供应链单位产值排放量却随之呈现先下降后上升的趋势,进一步验证了协同治理的效果。     

Controlling range expansion in habitat networks by adaptively targeting source populations

Controlling the spread of invasive species, pests, and pathogens is often logistically limited to interventions that target specific locations at specific periods. However, in complex, highly connected systems, such as marine environments connected by ocean currents, populations spread dynamically in both space and time via transient connectivity links. This results in nondeterministic future distributions of species in which local populations emerge dynamically and concurrently over a large area. The challenge, therefore, is to choose intervention locations that will maximize the effectiveness of the control efforts. We propose a novel method to manage dynamic species invasions and outbreaks that identifies the intervention locations most likely to curtail population expansion by selectively targeting local populations most likely to expand their future range. Critically, at any point during the development of the invasion or outbreak, the method identifies the local intervention that maximizes the long‐term benefit across the ecosystem by restricting species’ potential to spread. In so doing, the method adaptively selects the intervention targets under dynamically changing circumstances. To illustrate the effectiveness of the method we applied it to controlling the spread of crown‐of‐thorns starfish (Acanthaster sp.) outbreaks across Australia's Great Barrier Reef. Application of our method resulted in an 18‐fold relative improvement in management outcomes compared with a random targeting of reefs in putative starfish control scenarios. Although we focused on applying the method to reducing the spread of an unwanted species, it can also be used to facilitate the spread of desirable species through connectivity networks. For example, the method could be used to select those fragments of habitat most likely to rebuild a population if they were sufficiently well protected.     

Improving credibility and transparency of conservation impact evaluations through the partial identification approach

The fundamental challenge of evaluating the impact of conservation interventions is that researchers must estimate the difference between the outcome after an intervention occurred and what the outcome would have been without it (counterfactual). Because the counterfactual is unobservable, researchers must make an untestable assumption that some units (e.g., organisms or sites) that were not exposed to the intervention can be used as a surrogate for the counterfactual (control). The conventional approach is to make a point estimate (i.e., single number along with a confidence interval) of impact, using, for example, regression. Point estimates provide powerful conclusions, but in nonexperimental contexts they depend on strong assumptions about the counterfactual that often lack transparency and credibility. An alternative approach, called partial identification (PI), is to first estimate what the counterfactual bounds would be if the weakest possible assumptions were made. Then, one narrows the bounds by using stronger but credible assumptions based on an understanding of why units were selected for the intervention and how they might respond to it. We applied this approach and compared it with conventional approaches by estimating the impact of a conservation program that removed invasive trees in part of the Cape Floristic Region. Even when we used our largest PI impact estimate, the program's control costs were 1.4 times higher than previously estimated. PI holds promise for applications in conservation science because it encourages researchers to better understand and account for treatment selection biases; can offer insights into the plausibility of conventional point‐estimate approaches; could reduce the problem of advocacy in science; might be easier for stakeholders to agree on a bounded estimate than a point estimate where impacts are contentious; and requires only basic arithmetic skills.