Pragmatic Approaches for Water Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty1

Stakhiv, Eugene Z., 2011. Pragmatic Approaches for Water Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1183–1196. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00589.x Abstract: Water resources management is in a difficult transition phase, trying to accommodate large uncertainties associated with climate change while struggling to implement a difficult set of principles and institutional changes associated with integrated water resources management. Water management is the principal medium through which projected impacts of global warming will be felt and ameliorated. Many standard hydrological practices, based on assumptions of a stationary climate, can be extended to accommodate numerous aspects of climate uncertainty. Classical engineering risk and reliability strategies developed by the water management profession to cope with contemporary climate uncertainties can also be effectively employed during this transition period, while a new family of hydrological tools and better climate change models are developed. An expansion of the concept of “robust decision making,” coupled with existing analytical tools and techniques, is the basis for a new approach advocated for planning and designing water resources infrastructure under climate uncertainty. Ultimately, it is not the tools and methods that need to be revamped as much as the suite of decision rules and evaluation principles used for project justification. They need to be aligned to be more compatible with the implications of a highly uncertain future climate trajectory, so that the hydrologic effects of that uncertainty are correctly reflected in the design of water infrastructure.     

Farming dynamics and social capital: A case study in the urban fringe of Mexico City

Urban development has important implications for farmland preservation and natural resource management in local peri-urban communities. Social science research on recent changes in rural landscape of mega-cities tends to be limited to case studies in Latin-American nations. This study analyses the socioecomic dynamics of farming land use and the interactions between multiple cultural variables and the environment. Fieldwork was carried out during the 2002–2003 period in rural livelihoods of the five high mountain towns of south Mexico City. Data obtained from participatory survey and ethnographic techniques were integrated to assess changes in rural landscape and resource management and how urbanization, deforestation and market oriented agricultural production result in different livelihoods within a similar urban fringe context. The dynamic of mixture of urban and rural landscapes is based on farm productivity and social capital factors. The study concludes that policy support for regional agricultural production systems through enhancing ecosystems services, environmental protection and economic development is needed for sustainable development of local communities. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue     

Patch-Occupancy Modeling as a Method for Monitoring Changes in Forest Floristics: a Case Study in Southeastern Australia

Abstract:  The ability to monitor changes in biodiversity is fundamental to demonstrating sustainable management practices of natural resources. Disturbance studies generally focus on responses at the plot scale, whereas landscape-scale responses are directly relevant to the development of sustainable forest management. Modeling changes in occupancy is one way to monitor landscape-scale responses. We used understory vegetation data collected over 16 years from a long-term study site in southeastern Australia. The site was subject to timber harvesting and frequent prescribed burning. We used occupancy models to examine the impacts of these disturbances on the distribution of 50 species of plants during the study. Timber harvesting influenced the distribution of 9 species, but these effects of harvesting were generally lost within 14 years. Repeated prescribed fire affected 22 species, but the heterogeneity of the burns reduced the predicted negative effects. Twenty-two species decreased over time independent of treatment, and only 5 species increased over time. These changes probably represent a natural response to a wildfire that occurred in 1973, 13 years before the study began. Occupancy modeling is a useful and flexible technique for analyzing monitoring data and it may also be suitable for inclusion within an adaptive-management framework for forest management.     

Biodiversity Conservation in Agricultural Landscapes: Challenges and Opportunities of Coffee Agroforests in the Western Ghats,India

Abstract: The new approaches advocated by the conservation community to integrate conservation and livelihood development now explicitly address landscape mosaics composed of agricultural and forested land rather than only protected areas and largely intact forests. We refer specifically to a call by Harvey et al. (2008) to develop a new approach based on six strategies to integrate biodiversity conservation with sustainable livelihoods in Mesoamerican landscape mosaics. We examined the applicability of this proposal to the coffee agroforests of the Western Ghats, India. Of the six strategies, only one directly addresses livelihood conditions. Their approach has a clear emphasis on conservation and, as currently formulated risks repeating the failures of past integrated conservation and development projects. It fails to place the aspirations of farmers at the core of the agenda. Thus, although we acknowledge and share the broad vision and many of the ideas proposed by this approach, we urge more balanced priority setting by emphasizing people as much as biodiversity through a careful consideration of local livelihood needs and aspirations.     

基于小波分解与自适应多级残差修正的最小二乘支持向量回归预测模型的PM2.5浓度预测

采用小波分解(WD)将济南市科干所监测站PM_(2.5)浓度的一维时间序列(2013年1月1日—2017年8月15日)分解为高维信息,获得了该监测站附近PM_(2.5)浓度的时频变化特征,重点分析了PM_(2.5)的随机性和趋势性问题.然后构建了基于小波分解的多级残差修正的最小二乘支持向量回归预测模型(AMLRC-WLSSVR),结果发现,该模型能够很好地对济南市PM_(2.5)浓度做出预测,特别是针对重污染天气的预测有很好的精度.为了避免预测结果的不确定性问题,提出了一种基于方差估计给出预测值置信区间上界的方法,同时,有效弥补了单点预测的不稳定性及预测精度不足的缺点,该方法能够为实际空气污染预警提供技术支持.     

陕南移民搬迁与后续增收途径响应研究

同传统的推拉理论引起的移民相比,陕南脱贫攻坚移民具有政府行为的特点,它将自然演进中形成的劳动者与分散耕地相匹配格局打破,出现了劳动者与土地分离的局面,可能造成搬迁后生计不可持续问题。因此,探讨移民搬迁后续增收途径对于促进移民“稳得住”具有十分重要的理论与现实意义。抽取陕南汉中、安康、商洛3市9县584户搬迁家庭作为样本进行实地问卷调查及访谈,通过对调研数据分析发现：（1）搬迁距离对农户生活质量及收入方式产生影响,搬迁距离在2 km以内为适宜距离,社区规模在500户以下,农户最为满意;（2）搬迁距离会引起农户收入方式的转变,搬迁距离越远,农户无法继续使用原有土地等生产生活资料,农业生产发展缓慢,农技水平也相对滞后,使得农户务农收入减少,收入方式向务工转变;（3）就近安置、提升移民人力资本、兴办安置地产业等举措是解决移民户收入来源的可选途径。     

基于农牧民生计资本的干旱区草地适应性管理——以准噶尔北部的富蕴县为例

草地适应性管理是有效解决我国“三牧”（牧业、牧区和牧民）问题的重要路径。论文以准噶尔北部的富蕴县为例,采用系统（分层）抽样、参与性农户评估方法开展农牧户调查,建立生计资本量化指标体系及系统耦合协调度模型,测算农牧户生计资本及其耦合协调度。基于评估结果,提出干旱区草地适应性管理策略。研究表明：1）农牧民过度依赖天然草地放牧,普遍缺乏发展型生计,其生计资本水平低、生计转换能力弱、生计脆弱性高;2）农牧户间同质性较大,5项生计资本间属性分异明显,缺乏牧业合作经济组织,是研究区农牧户生计资本耦合协调度较低的主要原因;3）推进牧民生计多样化,转变牧业生产方式,发展牧区草产业,优化草地生产功能与生态功能的时空配置,有助于增强草地畜牧业人文-自然耦合系统的恢复力/弹性力。因此,加快培育新型职业牧民,加快发展现代草牧业,加快建设良好的农牧民组织,加强草地科学放牧管理,成为干旱区草地适应性管理的迫切任务。     

自适应时槽分配的机械振动WSNs传输休眠时序调度方法

目的针对均匀时槽分配方法在机械振动无线传感器网络大量原始数据传输需求下,节点传输能耗升高、传输速率降低的问题,降低机械振动无线传感器网络传输能耗。方法提出一种自适应时槽分配的机械振动无线传感器网络传输休眠时序调度方法,首先利用信标调度的自适应时槽分配时钟同步方法使各节点不需晶振补偿就可校准本地时钟误差,然后测量LQI预测节点数据传输速率,为各个节点分配最优传输时槽,最后设置休眠机制,让未进行数据传输的节点处于休眠状态待机,直到下一个同步时槽时,自动唤醒,并侦听网关信标帧。采用三种方法进行冲突次数、传输能量消耗和传输速率的对比实验。结果所提方法的传输能耗比CSMA-CA机制降低23.4%,比均匀时槽分配降低10.6%。结论所提方法能有效降低机械振动无线传感器网络数据传输能耗。     

Strengthening artisanal mining research and policy through baseline census activities

Over the past 10–15 years, several governments have implemented an array of technology, support‐related, sustainable livelihoods (SL) and poverty‐reduction projects for artisanal and small‐scale mining (ASM). In the majority of cases, however, these interventions have failed to facilitate improvements in the industry's productivity and raise the living standards of the sector's subsistence operators. This article argues that a poor understanding of the demographics of target populations has precipitated these outcomes. In order to strengthen policy and assistance in the sector, governments must determine, with greater precision, the number of people operating in ASM regions, their origins and ethnic backgrounds, ages, and educational levels. This can be achieved by carrying out basic and localized census work before promoting ambitious sector‐specific projects aimed at improving working conditions in the industry.     

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF LARGE RIVERS WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE MISSOURI RIVER1

ABSTRACT: The technocratic approach for managing the Missouri River and other large rivers is not effective in resolving conflicts among competing uses of water and dealing with uncertainty about how river ecosystems respond to alternative management actions. Adaptive management offers an alternative way to address these and other issues. It has the potential to alleviate management gridlock and provide lasting solutions to management of the Missouri River and other large river ecosystems. In passive adaptive management, simulation models and expert judgment are combined to select a preferred management action. While passive adaptive management is relatively simple and inexpensive to use, it does not necessarily provide reliable information for making management decisions. Active adaptive management uses statistically designed experiments to test assumptions or hypotheses about ecosystem responses to management actions. It is best carried out by a collaborative working group. Active adaptive management has several advantages, but the inability to satisfy certain prerequisites for successful application makes it more difficult to implement in large river ecosystems. A second‐best approach is proposed here to select, implement, monitor, and evaluate a preferred management action and retain that action provided ecological conditions improve and socioeconomic indicators do not fall below established acceptability limits.