Passive and active adaptive management: approaches and an example

Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. Yet there remains considerable confusion about what adaptive management entails, and how to actually make resource decisions adaptively. A key but somewhat ambiguous distinction in adaptive management is between active and passive forms of adaptive decision making. The objective of this paper is to illustrate some approaches to active and passive adaptive management with a simple example involving the drawdown of water impoundments on a wildlife refuge. The approaches are illustrated for the drawdown example, and contrasted in terms of objectives, costs, and potential learning rates. Some key challenges to the actual practice of AM are discussed, and tradeoffs between implementation costs and long-term benefits are highlighted.     

基于重要抽样法的耐压球壳可靠性计算方法研究

目的 解决耐压球壳极小失效概率的可靠性计算问题。方法 在自适应Kriging的基础上,结合重要抽样法提出耐压球壳可靠性计算方法。该方法在较大失效概率下构建的Kriging模型基础上获得重要方向,在重要方向上计算得到较低失效概率下的设计点,以设计点为中心,构建小失效概率的Kriging模型,并通过此模型采用重要抽样法开展可靠性计算。结果 分别使用提出的重要抽样法和蒙特卡洛法计算了2个算例的失效概率,计算结果表明,该方法具有较高的精度和效率。使用该方法对某耐压球壳工作载荷下的失效概率进行了计算,计算得到该球壳失效概率为4.094×10^–96。结论 研究结果可为无失效方程下极低失效概率的可靠性计算问题提供参考。     

基于双电极传感器的腐蚀电流检测系统抗扰技术

目的 针对金属电化学腐蚀中腐蚀电流检测,设计一种高精度I-V转换的微电流检测电路,突破宽范围微弱电流高精度检测技术。方法 通过分析电路的稳定性,针对100 pA~10 mA的微弱腐蚀电流采集,采用法安级偏置运放实现I-V转换,设计基于ADG708电子开关的8档自动调节电路,并通过24位ADC实现高精度模数转换。针对微弱电流采集中信号易受噪声的影响,设计自适应滤波器用于信号滤波处理。结果 通过MATLAB仿真自适应滤波器的有效性,结果表明,在采集i(k)=2sin(2πk)电流时,误差从0.29 mA(1σ)降低到0.003 9 mA(1σ)。通过电流源校准测试系统精度,在100 pA时误差最大,为4.7%;在10 mA时误差最小,为0.049%。当电流值低于100 nA时,测量误差可以控制在5%以内;100 nA以上时,测量误差可以控制在1%以内。结论 在微弱电流采样中引入自适应滤波器后,系统的采样精度显著提高,突破了宽范围的腐蚀电流采集技术,实现了微弱电流检测。可以将腐蚀电流应用在金属腐蚀速率的评价中。     

Climate change collaboration among natural resource management agencies: lessons learned from two US regions

It has been argued that regional collaboration can facilitate adaptation to climate change impacts through integrated planning and management. In an attempt to understand the underlying institutional factors that either support or contest this assumption, this paper explores the institutional factors influencing adaptation to climate change at the regional scale, where multiple public land and natural resource management jurisdictions are involved. Insights from two mid-western US case studies reveal that several challenges to collaboration persist and prevent fully integrative multi-jurisdictional adaptation planning at a regional scale. We propose that some of these challenges, such as lack of adequate time, funding and communication channels, be reframed as opportunities to build interdependence, identify issue-linkages and collaboratively explore the nature and extent of organisational trade-offs with respect to regional climate change adaptation efforts. Such a reframing can better facilitate multi-jurisdictional adaptation planning and management of shared biophysical resources generally while simultaneously enhancing organisational capacity to mitigate negative effects and take advantage of potentially favourable future conditions in an era characterised by rapid climate change.     

自适应人工鱼群-BP神经网络算法在径流预测中的应用

为了提高水库和河流中长期径流预测精度,提出了弹性自适应人工鱼群算法(RAAFSA)。应用RAAFSA算法训练BP神经网络,实现BP神经网络参数优化,形成弹性自适应人工鱼群-BP神经网络混合算法(RAAFSA-BP),对石泉水库进行中长期径流预测。仿真计算表明,弹性自适应人工鱼群优化的BP神经网络算法收敛速度快于BP神经网络算法、人工鱼群-BP神经网络算法和RBF神经网络算法。该混合算法克服了BP神经网络和人工鱼群算法易陷于局部极值、搜索质量差和精度不高的缺点,改善了BP神经网络的泛化能力,输出稳定性好,预报精度显著提高,每次预测相对误差绝对值都小于6%,合格率达到100%。该算法成功地解决了石泉水库中长期径流预测精度不高的难题,可有效用于水库和河川中长期径流预测。     

DYNAMICS OF WETLAND DEVELOPMENT AND RESOURCE MANAGEMENT IN LAS VEGAS WASH,NEVADA1

ABSTRACT: This paper examines the co‐evolution of the Las Vegas, Nevada metropolitan area, Las Vegas Wash ecosystem‐a downstream riparian wetland‐and Wash management as a case of urban‐environment dynamics. Since Las Vegas Wash provides the primary drainage for Las Vegas, changes in the urban system lead to changes in the Wash and its ecosystem. The population of the drainage area has grown from approximately 1,000 people in 1900 to more than 1.3 million in 2000. This phenomenal population growth led to increased Wash flow, from less than .03 m³/sec (1 ft³/sec) to over 7.4 m³/sec (260 ft³/sec), and consequent ecological changes from a nearly dry wash to a rich wetland, and now to an eroded system. As the Wash ecosystem changed, valuation of Wash characteristics by residents and resource managers also changed, shifting the focus of management and use, which ultimately led to further ecosystem changes. Reciprocal relationships among human activity, environmental change, and management in this urban area highlight the need for a comprehensive and dynamic systems perspective and adaptive approaches in urban environmental management and make this a particularly compelling case study. This paper describes a conceptual systems framework for adaptive urban‐environment management derived from this case.     

Toward sustainable livelihoods after war: Reconstituting rural land tenure systems

Land tenure plays a primary role in sustainable development efforts. However armed conflict and its repercussions reconfigure the network of social relations upon which all land tenure systems depend. In post‐conflict settings new laws have the opportunity to address tenure issues in the context of what people are already doing ‘on the ground’, with a view to moving from the fluidity of post‐conflict situations to a more solidified and peaceful social and legal environment. However there exists a lack of tools to analyze postwar land tenure and the prospects for reconstituting tenure systems to support recovery and development. This paper uses the Sustainable Livelihoods framework to examine postwar land tenure issues in order to draw out latent opportunities within emergent informal smallholder tenure constructs which may have utility in the reconstitution of national tenure systems.     

Using ecosystem-services assessments to determine trade-offs in ecosystem-based management of marine mammals

The goal of ecosystem-based management (EBM) is to support a sustainable and holistic multisectored management approach, and is recognized in a number of international policy frameworks. However, it remains unknown how these goals should be linked to assessments and management plans for marine fauna, such as mammals and fish stocks. It appears particularly challenging to carry out trade-off analyses of various ocean uses without a framework that integrates knowledge of environmental, social, and economic benefits derived from nonstationary marine fauna. We argue this gap can be filled by applying a version of the ecosystem-service approach at the population level of marine fauna. To advance this idea, we used marine mammals as a case study to demonstrate what indicators could operationalize relevant assessments and deliver an evidence base for the presence of ecosystem services and disservices derived from marine mammals. We found indicators covering common ecosystem service categories feasible to apply; examples of indicator data are already available in the literature for several populations. We encourage further exploration of this approach for application to marina fauna and biodiversity management, with the caveat that conceptual tensions related to the use of the ecosystem service concept itself needs to be addressed to ensure acceptance by relevant stakeholders.     

Identifying key needs for the integration of social–ecological outcomes in arctic wildlife monitoring

For effective monitoring in social–ecological systems to meet needs for biodiversity, science, and humans, desired outcomes must be clearly defined and routes from direct to derived outcomes understood. The Arctic is undergoing rapid climatic, ecological, social, and economic changes and requires effective wildlife monitoring to meet diverse stakeholder needs. To identify stakeholder priorities concerning desired outcomes of arctic wildlife monitoring, we conducted in-depth interviews with 29 arctic scientists, policy and decision makers, and representatives of indigenous organizations and nongovernmental organizations. Using qualitative content analysis, we identified and defined desired outcomes and documented links between outcomes. Using network analysis, we investigated the structure of perceived links between desired outcomes. We identified 18 desired outcomes from monitoring and classified them as either driven by monitoring information, monitoring process, or a combination of both. Highly cited outcomes were make decisions, conserve, detect change, disseminate, and secure food. These reflect key foci of arctic monitoring. Infrequently cited outcomes (e.g., govern) were emerging themes. Three modules comprised our outcome network. The modularity highlighted the low strength of perceived links between outcomes that were primarily information driven or more derived (e.g., detect change, make decisions, conserve, or secure food) and outcomes that were primarily process driven or more derived (e.g., cooperate, learn, educate). The outcomes expand monitoring community and disseminate created connections between these modules. Key desired outcomes are widely applicable to social–ecological systems within and outside the Arctic, particularly those with wildlife subsistence economies. Attributes and motivations associated with outcomes can guide development of integrated monitoring goals for biodiversity conservation and human needs. Our results demonstrated the disconnect between information- and process-driven goals and how expansion of the monitoring community and improved integration of monitoring stakeholders will help connect information- and process-derived outcomes for effective ecosystem stewardship.