SOME SIMPLE MODELS FOR CONTINUOUS VARIATE TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT: A survey is given of recently developed models for continuous variate non–Gaussian time series. The emphasis is on marginally specific models with given correlation structure. Exponential, Gamma, Weibull, Laplace, Beta and Mixed Exponential models are considered for the marginal distributions of the stationary time series. Most of the models are random coefficient, additive linear models. Some discussion of the meaning of autoregression and linearity is given, as well as suggestions for higher–order linear residual analysis for non–Gaussian models.     

International organization and EIA in developing countries

International EIA activity has two origins. First, there is increasing concern over conflict between developmental and environmental interests within the economic development system. Second, EIA appeals to international agencies and governments as a well-defined, internally integrated procedure and planning tool. EIA activities involve political, institutional, and technical motivations and goals for the international bodies and the governments of countries receiving aid. Three criteria may be used to evaluate international EIA from the perspective of policy makers and administrators in the countries: political support, institutional strengthening, and technical capability. This paper reviews the influence of the United Nations system and of some multilateral and bilateral development assistance agencies in promoting EIA in developing countries. The extent the nature of the influence donors have on EIA in developing countries is shaped as much by the interests and organizational characteristics of the donors as by the needs and priorities of the recipients.     

Detection of trisomy 21 by quantitative fluorescent–polymerase chain reaction in uncultured amniocytes

Prenatal diagnosis of fetal trisomy 21 is usually performed by cytogenetic analysis. This requires lengthy laboratory procedures, high costs and is unsuitable for large-scale screening of pregnant women. Today, trisomy 21 can be rapidly diagnosed within 24 h by molecular analysis of uncultured fetal cells using the semi-quantification of fluorescent PCR products from short tandem repeat (STR) polymorphic markers. The aim of our study was to test a chromosome quantification method on the basis of the analysis of fluorescent PCR products derived from non-polymorphic target genes. Co-amplification of a portion of DSCR1 (Down syndrome Critical Region 1) and the reference gene, CFTR (cystic fibrosis transmembrane regulator) enabled molecular detection of trisomy 21. Our method was successfully tested on a total of 154 amniotic fluids in a blind prospective study. Calculation of the DSCR1/CFTR ratio allowed us to distinguish between 152 normal amniotic fluids (mean ratio 0.99) and 2 amniotic fluids presenting a trisomy 21 status (DSCR1/CFTR ratio of 1.53 and 1.61, respectively). The results obtained by conventional cytogenetic analysis and our quantitative PCR method were concordant in every case. Our gene-based fluorescent PCR approach represents an alternative molecular method for rapid and reliable detection of trisomy 21, which can be helpful in the prenatal diagnosis of women at high risk of fetal trisomy 21. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

GENERATING STREAMFLOW SEQUENCES WITH TREND AND CYCLICAL MOVEMENTS1

ABSTRACT: A first-order autoregressive model had been modified with the trend and cyclical movements to generate the streamflow sequences. Three main portions were involved in this modified model, i.e., six-year cycle with trend changing; six-year cycle without trend changing; and both annual and six-year cycles with trend changing. The synthetic sequences of monthly streamflow sequences were compared with the historical records obtained from the Kissimmee River basin by using the Chi-Square test for goodness-of-fit. The results indicated that the newly proposed model has a better solution than the original model because the trend and cyclical movements involved in generating sequences are much closer to the historical records.     

Response of cucumber plants to increased UV-B radiation under water stress

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Identification of 1-hydroxypyrene in urine of dogs after pyrene injection and its excretion

With high performance liquid chromatograph and fluorospectrometry, 1-hydroxypyrene is identified as a metabolite of pyrene in the urine of dogs after intramuscular injection of pyrene. When three successive doses of 1,2 and 5 μmol/kg wt. pyrene administered, urinary excretion of 1-hydroxypyrene reaches the peak level between 24th and 48th hours. Excreted 1-hydroxypyrene consists of only about 0.05% of injected pyrene.     

住宅建筑污染物排放量及排污费的计算方法

本文阐述了利用各种原辅材料使用量和排放系数的物料衡算方法，计算和收取排污费，可基本解决建筑行业在施工中污染物无规律排放问题，对该行业造成的环境污染会有所抑制．     

VOC removal from contaminated groundwater through membrane pervaporation. (Ⅰ): Water- 1,1,1- trichloroethane system

1,1,1-trichloroethane(TCA), a common chlorinated organic solvent and volatile organic compound(VOC), was removed from contaminated groundwater by using a bench-scale membrane pervaporation unit. The effects of TCA concentration, temperature, and flow rate on permeation flux and selectivity(a value) of the process were evaluated. In general, higher temperature leads to higher VOC flux but lower selectivity; higher flow rate of TCA feed stream results in higher VOC flux and selectivity, an indication of the effect of concentration polarization; higher TCA feed concentration produces higher TCA permeation, however, the selectivity was virtually unchanged.     

固定化优势菌PM1降解甲基叔丁基醚

采用海藻酸钙固定化优势菌Methylibium petroleipmhilu PM1降解甲基叔丁基醚(MTBE).结果表明,固定化细胞对于pH值、温度、底物浓度的适应范围变宽,在pH5～10、温度25～40℃、底物浓度10～500mg/L时,固定化细胞具有较高的MTBE生物降解活性;30℃储存降解活性半衰期为96h;重复使用30批活性没有明显降低;扫描电镜观察表明,细胞在海藻酸钙包埋载体中能良好地生长和繁殖.固定化细胞降解MTBE反应符合零级动力学特征.     

GM(1,1)模型预测城市区域环境噪声的应用

介绍了重庆市主城区区域环境噪声污染现状,根据1996～2002年区域环境噪声的监测数据,建立了GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,通过预测探讨了区域环境噪声的变化规律.结果表明,主城区未来几年区域环境噪声呈上升趋势,2003年预测值为57.8分贝.