中国农业植被净初级生产力模拟(I)——模型的建立与灵敏度分析

以业已建成的稻麦作物净初级生产力模型为基本框架,建立了一个具有普适性的中国农业植被净初级生产力模型(CropC-)。CropC-的模拟对象为占我国农作物总播种面积2/3的水稻、小麦、玉米、棉花、油菜和大豆。该模型包括2个主要功能模块:光合作用和呼吸作用;土壤-作物系统氮素运移。前者综合考虑了环境因子和氮素的影响,后者包括了作物氮素吸收、土壤氮矿化和化肥氮释放。灵敏度分析表明,在输入参数变化±10%时,CropC-对6个主要输入参数响应的敏感性依次为温度>光合有效辐射>大气CO2浓度>土壤全氮含量>施氮量>降水。模型分析表明,气候变暖将降低作物净初级生产力。     

Assessing land-use/water-quality relationships across contrasting geologic areas in New Jersey

In all, 13 stream water-quality parameters, including specific conductance (SC), pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), three nutrients, and six major ions were compared between the northern bedrock and southern coastal plain regions of New Jersey, USA and related to watershed-disturbance gradients characterized by the percentage of urban land, impervious surface (IS), agriculture, and altered land (sum of urban land and agriculture) in the watersheds. SC, DO, calcium, magnesium, sodium, and chloride concentrations were greater in the north. DOC was higher and pH was lower in the south. Nutrient, potassium, and sulfate concentrations did not differ between regions. Regional water-quality differences are attributed to geologic setting and land use. Except for DO in southern streams, all water-quality parameters were related to urban land, agriculture, or both. Significant correlations between urban land and IS and water-quality variables were similar in both regions with differences in unitless correlation coefficients ranging from 0.00 to 0.06. Compared to urban land and agriculture, relationships between most water-quality variables and altered land were stronger in the south. The extent of urban and agricultural lands in the watersheds did not differ by region. Altered land was correlated with urban land in both regions and with agriculture only in the south. Although focused on New Jersey, this study has broader implications for watershed planning.     

Detection of residual organochlorine and organophosphorus pesticides in agricultural soil in Rio Verde region of San Luis Potosi,Mexico

Organochlorine pesticides were intensively used in Mexico from 1950 until their ban and restriction in 1991. However, the presence of these compounds is commonly reported in many regions of the country. The aim of the present study was to identify and quantify residual organochlorine and organophosphorus pesticides in agricultural soil in Rio Verde region, San Luis Potosi state, which has been identified as possibly polluted by pesticides. Composed samples from 24 zones covering an area of approximately 5,440 ha were analyzed. The most frequently found pesticides were p,p´-DDT followed by ,p,p´-DDE, heptachlor, endosulfan and γ-HCH whose frequency rates were 100, 91, 83 and 54%, respectively. The concentration of p,p´-DDT in the crops grown in these soils was in the following order: chili > maize > tomato > alfalfa. The results obtained in this study show that p,p´-DDT values are lower or similar to those found in other agricultural regions of Mexico. Methyl and ethyl parathion were the most frequent organophosphate pesticide detected in 100% and 62.5% of the samples with average concentrations of 25.20 and 47.48 μg kg^–1, respectively. More research is needed to establish the background levels of pesticides in agricultural soils and their potential ecological and human health effects in this region.     

Epiphyte Biodiversity in the Coffee Agricultural Matrix: Canopy Stratification and Distance from Forest Fragments

Abstract: Quality of the agricultural matrix profoundly affects biodiversity and dispersal in agricultural areas. Vegetatively complex coffee agroecosystems maintain species richness at larger distances from the forest. Epiphytes colonize canopy trees and provide resources for birds and insects and thus effects of agricultural production on epiphytes may affect other species. We compared diversity, composition, and vertical stratification of epiphytes in a forest fragment and in two coffee farms differing in management intensity in southern Mexico. We also examined spatial distribution of epiphytes with respect to the forest fragment to examine quality of the two agricultural matrix types for epiphyte conservation. We sampled vascular epiphytes in a forest fragment, a shade polyculture farm, and a shade monoculture farm at 100 m, 200 m, and 400 m from the forest. Epiphyte and orchid richness was greater in the forest than in the monoculture but richness was similar in the forest and polyculture farm. Epiphyte species composition differed with habitat type, but not with distance from the forest. In the forest, epiphytes were distributed throughout tree canopies, but in the farms, epiphytes were primarily found on trunks and larger branches. Epiphyte richness and species similarity to forest species declined with distance from the forest fragment in the monoculture, but richness and similarity to forest species did not decline with distance from forest in the polyculture. This suggests polyculture coffee has greater conservation value. In contrast, monoculture coffee is likely a sink habitat for epiphytes dispersing from forests into coffee. Coffee farms differ from forests in terms of the habitat they provide and species composition, thus protecting forest fragments is essential for epiphyte conservation. Nonetheless, in agricultural landscapes, vegetatively complex coffee farms may contribute to conservation of epiphytes more than other agricultural land uses.     

Exploring the relationship between climate change and violent conflict

ABSTRACT

Does climate change lead to violent conflict? This article reviews the existing literature connecting climatic conditions to conflict. It finds that the existing literature has not detected a robust and general effect from climate to conflict onset. Moreover, there exists scientific agreement that climatic changes can contribute to conflict under some conditions and through certain pathways. In particular, the recent literature offers considerable suggestive evidence that climatic changes can lead to conflict in countries and/or regions, which are dependent on agriculture, host politically excluded groups, and have ineffective institutions. Future research should focus not only on understanding of the pathways and contexts in which climatic changes are most likely to increase or exacerbate the risk of conflict but also work to understand the mechanisms by which climate variability and change might cause conflict.     

Public Investment and Environmental Sustainability of Agricultural Production in China

Abstract

The excessive application of fertilizer and pesticides in grain production in China has posed a threat to the environmental sustainability of agricultural production. One of the major reasons of the increasing usage of chemical inputs by farmers is their trying to reach higher yields, especially In absence of adequate public inputs, such as development and extension of appropriate technology and necessary production infrastructure, etc. Based on the crop-specific data of the past 20 years, this paper examines how the public Investments in agricultural researches could impact on the reduction of farmers' private material inputs of major grain crops in China. It manifests that the increased investments in public sector, especially in agricultural researches, is a favorable and effective way to reduce farmers' private material inputs and should be given a priority consideration in the policy emendation to increase yields and improve production sustainability.     

“新四化”协同发展倍增效用分析

在新的时代背景下,诠释了农业现代化、新型工业化、新型城镇化和信息化的基本内涵.基于循环累积因果关系理论论证了“新四化”之间的互动关系,构建了协同发展状态下的“新四化”互动关系模型,分析了“新四化”之间的协同发展对社会经济发展的倍增效应,指出政府部门在“新四化”协同发展中的重要性.     

Runoff Curve Numbers at the Agricultural Field‐Scale and Implications for Continuous Simulation Modeling

This study used monitoring in the waterways of agricultural fields to understand the use of the runoff curve number (CN) in continuous simulation models. The CN has a long history as a design tool for estimating runoff volumes for large, single storms on small watersheds, but its use in continuous simulation models to describe runoff from smaller storms and relatively small areas is more recent and controversial. We examined 788 nonwinter rainfall events on four agricultural fields over five years (2004‐2008) during which runoff was generated in 87 events. The largest 20 runoff events on each field generated approximately 90% of the total runoff volume. The runoff event CNs showed an inverse correlation with storm depth that could not consistently be explained by previous precipitation. We review how small areas of higher runoff generation within larger areas will systematically increase the apparent CN of the larger area as the storm size decreases. If this variation is not incorporated into a model explicitly, continuous simulation modelers must understand that when source areas are aggregated or when runoff generation is spatially variable, the overall CN is not unique when smaller storms are included in the calibration set.     

Development and Application of an Agricultural Intensity Index to Invertebrate and Algal Metrics from Streams at Two Scales

Research was conducted at 28‐30 sites within eight study areas across the United States along a gradient of nutrient enrichment/agricultural land use between 2003 and 2007. Objectives were to test the application of an agricultural intensity index (AG‐Index) and compare among various invertebrate and algal metrics to determine indicators of nutrient enrichment nationally and within three regions. The agricultural index was based on total nitrogen and phosphorus input to the watershed, percent watershed agriculture, and percent riparian agriculture. Among data sources, agriculture within riparian zone showed significant differences among values generated from remote sensing or from higher resolution orthophotography; median values dropped significantly when estimated by orthophotography. Percent agriculture in the watershed consistently had lower correlations to invertebrate and algal metrics than the developed AG‐Index across all regions. Percent agriculture showed fewer pairwise comparisons that were significant than the same comparisons using the AG‐Index. Highest correlations to the AG‐Index regionally were ?0.75 for Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera richness (EPTR) and ?0.70 for algae Observed/Expected (O/E), nationally the highest was ?0.43 for EPTR vs. total nitrogen and ?0.62 for algae O/E vs. AG‐Index. Results suggest that analysis of metrics at national scale can often detect large differences in disturbance, but more detail and specificity is obtained by analyzing data at regional scales.     

动态瓦斯地质预测算法研究与可视化应用

为实现煤矿瓦斯地质动态精准预测与可视化,基于煤层埋深、厚度、倾角、地质构造等多种因素,通过将相似的地质模块定义为同一微单元,在此基础上将反距离权重插值算法和递归邻域搜索策略与数据优化处理算法相结合,应用于瓦斯地质动态预测可视化系统开发。研究结果表明:根据递归邻域搜索算法模型开发的多级瓦斯地质图动态分析系统利用瓦斯地质基础数据可对矿井瓦斯含量、压力、涌出量等瓦斯赋存参数进行实时分析和计算,动态绘制散点图、等值线和区域预测图,使瓦斯区域预测图过渡更加平缓,显著提高预测的精准性及整体的显示效果,同时其制图耗时也无明显增加,可为高瓦斯矿井安全生产提供决策依据。