A framework for allocating conservation resources among multiple threats and actions

Land managers decide how to allocate resources among multiple threats that can be addressed through multiple possible actions. Additionally, these actions vary in feasibility, effectiveness, and cost. We sought to provide a way to optimize resource allocation to address multiple threats when multiple management options are available, including mutually exclusive options. Formulating the decision as a combinatorial optimization problem, our framework takes as inputs the expected impact and cost of each threat for each action (including do nothing) and for each overall budget identifies the optimal action to take for each threat. We compared the optimal solution to an easy to calculate greedy algorithm approximation and a variety of plausible ranking schemes. We applied the framework to management of multiple introduced plant species in Australian alpine areas. We developed a model of invasion to predict the expected impact in 50 years for each species-action combination that accounted for each species’ current invasion state (absent, localized, widespread); arrival probability; spread rate; impact, if present, of each species; and management effectiveness of each species-action combination. We found that the recommended action for a threat changed with budget; there was no single optimal management action for each species; and considering more than one candidate action can substantially increase the management plan's overall efficiency. The approximate solution (solution ranked by marginal cost-effectiveness) performed well when the budget matched the cost of the prioritized actions, indicating that this approach would be effective if the budget was set as part of the prioritization process. The ranking schemes varied in performance, and achieving a close to optimal solution was not guaranteed. Global sensitivity analysis revealed a threat's expected impact and, to a lesser extent, management effectiveness were the most influential parameters, emphasizing the need to focus research and monitoring efforts on their quantification.     

The difficulties of systematic reviews

The need for robust evidence to support conservation actions has driven the adoption of systematic approaches to research synthesis in ecology. However, applying systematic review to complex or open questions remains challenging, and this task is becoming more difficult as the quantity of scientific literature increases. We drew on the science of linguistics for guidance as to why the process of identifying and sorting information during systematic review remains so labor intensive, and to provide potential solutions. Several linguistic properties of peer‐reviewed corpora—including nonrandom selection of review topics, small‐world properties of semantic networks, and spatiotemporal variation in word meaning—greatly increase the effort needed to complete the systematic review process. Conversely, the resolution of these semantic complexities is a common motivation for narrative reviews, but this process is rarely enacted with the rigor applied during linguistic analysis. Therefore, linguistics provides a unifying framework for understanding some key challenges of systematic review and highlights 2 useful directions for future research. First, in cases where semantic complexity generates barriers to synthesis, ecologists should consider drawing on existing methods—such as natural language processing or the construction of research thesauri and ontologies—that provide tools for mapping and resolving that complexity. These tools could help individual researchers classify research material in a more robust manner and provide valuable guidance for future researchers on that topic. Second, a linguistic perspective highlights that scientific writing is a rich resource worthy of detailed study, an observation that can sometimes be lost during the search for data during systematic review or meta‐analysis. For example, mapping semantic networks can reveal redundancy and complementarity among scientific concepts, leading to new insights and research questions. Consequently, wider adoption of linguistic approaches may facilitate improved rigor and richness in research synthesis.     

西安市重污染与清洁天PM2.5组分及其活性氧物质对比

针对重霾污染,在西安市冬季重污染日(2015-11-30~2015-12-09)和清洁日(2016-01-13~2016-01-22)各进行了为期10d的PM_(2.5)采集,测量其中的有机碳、元素碳,及NH_4~+、NO_3~-、SO_4~(2-)等无机水溶性离子,探讨两种污染条件下的组分特征及其成因.结果表明:观测期,重霾日和清洁日PM_(2.5)质量浓度分别为(170±47.5)μg·m~(-3)和(48.6±17.9)μg·m~(-3),且重霾日伴随低能见度、高湿静风等多种不利气象条件;重霾日二次无机离子(NH_4~+、NO_3~-、SO_4~(2-))组分占PM_(2.5)质量浓度的49.8%±13.1%,而清洁日为19.4%±5.95%,并且重霾日硫氧化速率(sulfur oxidation ratio,SOR)和氮氧化速率(nitrogen oxidation ratio,NOR)分别为0.282±0.157和0.269±0.124,远高于清洁日(SOR和NOR分别为0.189±0.057和0.077±0.046),重霾日二次有机组分浓度[(6.22±3.87)μg·m~(-3)]是清洁日[(1.44±1.63)μg·m~(-3)]的5倍,表明二次污染及不利气象条件是造成重霾期间相关组分浓度升高的重要原因.最后,通过二氯荧光黄双乙酸盐(2',7'-DCFH)化学荧光分析法测定了其中活性氧物质(reactive oxygen species,ROS)的浓度,探讨其对于二次无机组分形成的影响,结果表明观测期ROS平均浓度(以H_2O_2计)分别为(4.99±1.54)nmol·m~(-3)(重霾期),(0.492±0.356)nmol·m~(-3)(清洁期),二次反应及积累效应可能是西安重霾条件下ROS浓度升高的主要原因.NO_3~-、SO_4~(2-)与ROS均呈现正相关(P0.05),表明ROS可能通过二次氧化过程参与到二次无机组分形成过程中.     

人为干扰对小兴安岭森林湿地土壤碳组分和酶活性的影响

以小兴安岭落叶林沼泽湿地为研究对象,对比研究皆伐地、火烧地和落叶松湿地土壤碳组分和酶活性.结果表明:(1)3种湿地类型土壤SOC含量表现为对照地显著高于皆伐地和火烧地(p0.05),在0~10 cm土层中皆伐地与对照地相比降低了58.38%,火烧地与对照地相比降低了61.96%.皆伐地与火烧地在不同土层的土壤中SOC含量差异不显著(p0.05);DOC含量对照地显著高于皆伐地和火烧地(p0.05).在0~10cm土层中火烧地DOC含量是皆伐地的1.99倍,两者差异不显著(p0.05);不同干扰方式对土壤MBC含量影响的差异主要表现在0~10 cm的土层土壤,对照地分别比皆伐地和火烧地高23.13%和95.79%(p0.05).在不同的土层中皆伐地MBC含量均大于火烧地,与SOC含量的变化趋势一致.(2)与对照地相比,皆伐地与火烧地0~10 cm土层的土壤蔗糖酶活性分别降低了45.59%和36.76%,脲酶活性显著降低了18.22%和55.69%(p0.05),蛋白酶活性降低了19.65%和17.34%,淀粉酶活性降低了6.29%和10.69%.土壤碳组分和酶活性在垂直方向上均表现为随着土层深度增加而减小.皆伐和火烧造成森林湿地土壤碳组分和酶活性降低.     

拉萨市近49年气温变化特征研究

2019年6月24日拉萨市出现了30.8℃的高温,创历史新高.为了更好的了解拉萨市气候变暖的机理以及评估该区域未来气候的变化状况,本文基于拉萨市自动气象站近49年的观测数据,采用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall (M-K)突变检验、小波分析、R/S分析等方法深入研究了多时间尺度上气温的时空演变特征.结果 显示:(a...     

西安市PM2.5燃煤源谱特征研究

针对西安本地源谱缺乏的现状,总结统计了西安目前灰霾特征和主要成因,对西安市燃煤源进行了测定.研究发现,在煤烟尘PM2.5中SO2-4的含量最高(25%),其次为OC(12%)、NH+4(7%)、Cl-(5%).对固定源燃煤与民用散烧煤,不同脱硫方式、脱硝方式和锅炉类型的固定源成分谱分析得出:1.SO2-4及Al、Si、Ca在固定源煤烟尘PM2.5中含量大于民用燃煤,OC与之相反;2.炉内喷钙法PM2.5中SO2-4明显高于其它脱硫法含量;双碱法PM2.5中Na的含量显著高于其它脱硫工艺流程的含量;氧化镁法PM2.5 中Mg含量为各类脱硫工艺中最高;石灰石膏法颗粒物中Mg、Al、Si、Ca等元素含量均高于大多数工艺;3.不同的脱硝工艺中NO-3离子在各类成分谱中的含量极低;4.链条炉与层燃炉PM2.5中OC、EC含量高于循环流化床炉、煤粉炉.     

西安市人为源挥发性有机物排放清单及研究

对西安市各类VOCs人为源进行系统分类,收集活动水平数据,应用国内外排放因子研究的最新成果,采用排放因子法建立了西安市2014年人为源VOCs排放清单.结果表明:2014年西安市人为源大气VOCs排放量为11.51×104t,其中,固定燃烧源、生物质燃烧源、工艺过程源、有机溶剂使用源、移动源、油品存储与销售源和废弃物处理源的排放量分别占VOCs排放总量的2.53%、3.32%、13.30%、51.50%、23.64%、4.82%和1.02%.油墨印刷、建筑涂料和汽车喷涂为有机溶剂使用源重点排放行业,VOCs排放量占到排放总量的48.89%;工艺过程源中化学药品、医药制造、原油加工和化学纤维为重点排放行业,VOCs排放量占到排放总量的10.19%.各区县中,长安区、雁塔区、未央区、碑林区VOCs排放量明显较高,其分担率分别为16.53%、14.88%、14.47%和12.99%.     

西安市建筑垃圾渣土资源再利用研究

建筑垃圾渣土作为"建筑副产品",已造成严重的城市环境问题。通过对西安市建筑垃圾渣土的现场调查及工程再利用,借鉴发达国家及国内省市建筑垃圾渣土的成功管理经验和资源再利用的成功范例,提出了西安建筑垃圾资源再利用的对策建议,对"十三五"期间减少已有建筑垃圾的存量并遏制增量和建设西安森林城市具有参考意义。     

A mixed methodology for evaluating use of evidence in conservation planning

Conservation practitioners widely recognize the importance of making decisions based on the best available evidence. However, the effectiveness of evidence use in conservation planning is rarely assessed, which limits opportunities to improve evidence-based practice. We devised a mixed methodology for empirically evaluating use of evidence that applies social science tools to systematically appraise what kinds of evidence are used in conservation planning, to what effect, and under what limitations. We applied our approach in a case study of the Nature Conservancy of Canada (NCC), a leading land conservation organization. We conducted qualitative and quantitative analyses of 65 NCC planning documents (n = 13 in-depth) to identify patterns in evidence use, and surveyed 35 conservation planners to examine experiences of and barriers to using evidence. Although claims in plans contained a wide range of evidence types, 26% of claims were not referenced or associated with an identifiable source. Lack of evidence use was particularly apparent in claims associated with direct threats, particularly those identified as low (71% coded as insufficient or lacking evidence) or medium (45%) threats. Survey participants described relying heavily on practitioner experience and highlighted capacity limitations and disciplinary gaps in expertise among planning teams as barriers to using evidence effectively. We found that although time-intensive, this approach yielded actionable recommendations for improving evidence use in NCC conservation plans. Similar mixed-method assessments may streamline the process by including interviews and refining the document analysis frames to target issues or sections of concern. We suggest our method provides an accessible and robust point of departure for conservation practitioners to evaluate whether the use of conservation planning reflects in-house standards and more broadly recognized best practices.     

地方协调发展的政府财政保障分析——以三亚市实施全面建设小康社会战略为例

将全面建设小康社会置于实施可持续发展战略的大背景下研究政府财政特别是地方政府财政的保障作用,具有非常强的实践意义和理论意义.文章立足于全面建设小康社会监测指标体系,充分利用现行有关监测全面小康社会实现程度的测算结果,同时引入发展协调度的应用.在梳理政府财政与经济社会发展间的理论关系基础上,文章明确了地方政府财政保障经济社会发展中的协调作用.通过综合运用了加权平均、回归拟合、主成分分析等方法进行实证,不但验证了发展的协调能力与发展的综合能力的高度相关性,还验证了财政保障地方协调发展的有效性.亦即,地方政府财政通过发挥协调功能,可以以更快的速度促进全面小康社会的实现.在结合三亚实际进行分析的基础上提出了地方政府在实施全面建设小康社会的协调发展战略中应采取优化财政支出结构优先保障提供公共产品和服务,建立财政保障长效机制调整既有的利益格局等一系列有益的政策建议.