Assessing Uncertainty in Estimates of Nitrogen Loading to Estuaries for Research, Planning, and Risk Assessment

Parametric (propagation for normal error estimates) and nonparametric methods (bootstrap and enumeration of combinations) to assess the uncertainty in calculated rates of nitrogen loading were compared, based on the propagation of uncertainty observed in the variables used in the calculation. In addition, since such calculations are often based on literature surveys rather than random replicate measurements for the site in question, error propagation was also compared using the uncertainty of the sampled population (e.g., standard deviation) as well as the uncertainty of the mean (e.g., standard error of the mean). Calculations for the predicted nitrogen loading to a shallow estuary (Waquoit Bay, MA) were used as an example. The previously estimated mean loading from the watershed (5,400 ha) to Waquoit Bay (600 ha) was 23,000 kg N yr⁻¹. The mode of a nonparametric estimate of the probability distribution differed dramatically, equaling only 70% of this mean. Repeated observations were available for only 8 of the 16 variables used in our calculation. We estimated uncertainty in model predictions by treating these as sample replicates. Parametric and nonparametric estimates of the standard error of the mean loading rate were 12–14%. However, since the available data include site-to-site variability, as is often the case, standard error may be an inappropriate measure of confidence. The standard deviations were around 38% of the loading rate. Further, 95% confidence intervals differed between the nonparametric and parametric methods, with those of the nonparametric method arranged asymmetrically around the predicted loading rate. The disparity in magnitude and symmetry of calculated confidence limits argue for careful consideration of the nature of the uncertainty of variables used in chained calculations. This analysis also suggests that a nonparametric method of calculating loading rates using most frequently observed values for variables used in loading calculations may be more appropriate than using mean values. These findings reinforce the importance of including assessment of uncertainty when evaluating nutrient loading rates in research and planning. Risk assessment, which may need to consider relative probability of extreme events in worst-case scenarios, will be in serious error using normal estimates, or even the nonparametric bootstrap. A method such as our enumeration of combinations produces a more reliable distribution of risk.     

关于我国雨能分布研究

利用全国多雨、中雨和少雨典型区的自记雨量曲线和 Kinnel 方程:E=29.233·(1-e~(-(0.0477I+0.112)))计算出各点各次降雨的雨能值,并作出各区按月降雨(x)和雨能(y)的关系式:y=15.592x-171.630(多雨区),y=16.257x-280.279(中雨区),y=16.493x-107.676(少雨区)。将全国77个观测点的按月雨量资料计算出全年的雨能值。通过作图得到我国多雨和中雨区的年降雨量 P 和年雨能值 E 的关系:E=11.67p;和少雨区的关系:E=14.95P。从而可用此来估算全国各测点的雨能值。     

高耸构筑物地基变形和风振对爆破拆除安全性的影响

本文对高耸构筑物控爆前的倾斜、失稳的诱发因素(地基变形、风振)进行了探讨,当高耸构筑物向倾斜相反方向倒塌时,必须从地基、基础、上部结构三者之间的变形协调条件和静力平衡条件综合考虑进行爆破设计,施爆时必须采取一定的技术措施.     

MULTIYEAR DROUGHT SIMULATION1

ABSTRACT: Previous studies on multiyear droughts have often been limited to the analysis of historic annual flow series. A major disadvantage in this approach can be described as the unavailability of long historic flow records needed to obtain a significant number of drought events for the analysis. To overcome this difficulty, the present study proposes to use synthetically generated annual flow series. A methodology is presented to model annual flows based on an analysis of the harmonic and stochastic properties of the observed flows. Once the model is determined, it can be utilized to generate a flow series of desired length so as to include many hydrologic cycles within the process. The key parameter for a successful drought study is the truncation level used to distinguish low flows from high flows. In this paper, a concept of selecting the truncation level is also presented. The drought simulation procedure is illustrated by a case study of the Pequest watershed in New Jersey. For the above watershed, multiyear droughts were derived from both historic and generated flow series. Three important drought parameters, namely, the duration, severity, and magnitude, were determined for each drought event, and their probability distributions were studied. It was found that gamma and log normal probaility functions produce the best fit for the duration and severity, respectively. The derived probability curves from generated flows can be reliably used to predict the longest drought duration and the largest drought severity within a given return period.     

Measuring the Effects of a Flood Control Project: Hedonic Land Price Approach

This article aims to measure the effects of a flood control project planned for the Chitose River Basin in Hokkaido Prefecture, Japan, using hedonic land price functions. In these functions, "annual expected depth of flood water" is introduced as an explanatory variable to represent the effect of the flood control project. Comparing the approach with the method of "the economic analysis of flood control projects", which has been a conventional evaluation method widely used in Japan, the efficiency and limitations of our approach are discussed.     

REGIONALIZATION AND PREDICTION OF ANNUAL FLOODS IN THE FRASER RIVER CATCHMENT,BRITISH COLUMBIA1

A method of predicting probability distributions of annual floods is presented and is applied to the Fraser River catchment of British Columbia. The Gumbel distribution is found to adequately describe the observed flood frequency data. Using the estimated Gumbel parameters, discriminant analysis is performed to separate basins into flood regions. Within each region, regression analysis is used to relate physiographic and climatic variables to the means and standard deviations of the annual flood series. The regression equations are applied to four test basins and the results indicate that the method is suitable for an estimation of annual floods.     

EFFECTIVENESS OF ALUM IN A WEEDY,SHALLOW LAKE1

ABSTRACT: An alum treatment in Long Lake (mean depth, 2 m) in 1980 has been effective at controlling internal loading of phosphorus for four years. The fifth summer after treatment, the lake returned to its pro-treatment state. Lake P content decreased from a summer average of 65 μg/L during 1976–1978 to about 30 μg/L during four years following treatment. In 1985, summer P content was 61 μg/L. Algal abundance, species composition, and transparency have responded proportionately with P. Alum effectiveness apparently declined because the floe layer tended to sink and become dispersed at a deeper level in the sediment, as well as become covered with new, P-rich sediment. Iron-reduction may be the principal mechanism for internal P loading, although the lake is unstratified and anoxia is usually not pronounced.     

北京城区和郊区本底站大气污染物浓度的多时间尺度变化特征

利用北京城区海淀宝联站(HD)和上甸子本底站(SDZ)2005—2012连续8年的大气污染物(PM_(2.5)、O3、NO2、SO_2和CO)浓度观测数据进行统计分析,揭示北京城区和郊区主要污染物浓度变化特征、超标情况及其差异.主要结论如下:1连续8年北京城区、郊区PM_(2.5)浓度整体呈缓慢下降趋势,但污染水平仍较高.海淀宝联站和上甸子本底站的PM_(2.5)年均浓度从奥运前3年(2005—2007)的平均值87.1μg·m-3和53.4μg·m-3分别下降到奥运后5年(2008—2012)的平均值67.7μg·m-3和42.1μg·m-3.奥运后5年两站PM_(2.5)年均浓度变化不大,其中城区维持在66~70μg·m-3的高浓度水平.城区PM_(2.5)浓度为3级以上的超标日在四季的发生频率相当,4级和5级以上的超标日则多发生在秋、冬季;各季平均日变化趋势均为双峰双谷型,上下班交通高峰期对PM_(2.5)浓度日变化有重要影响.2城区站O3年均浓度前5年(2006—2010)逐年下降,之后浓度开始回升,而本底站O3年均浓度在此期间变化不大,近6年(2007—2012)维持在72.4~76.3μg·m-3.城、郊O3平均日变化均呈单峰型,其中上甸子站峰值出现时刻晚于城区海淀宝联站.32005—2012年北京城区其它气态污染物浓度(NO2、SO_2和CO)总体均呈缓慢下降趋势,但在2012年浓度有所反弹,城区站气态污染物在秋、冬季的平均浓度均显著高于春、夏季.     

湛江东海岛海雾雾水化学特征的对比分析

利用2010年和2011年在广东省湛江市东海岛海雾外场观测试验中获得的雾水样本和雾滴谱资料,对南海沿岸海雾化学特性进行研究.结果表明:2010年雾水的p H和电导率(EC)平均值分别为5.20和1884μS·cm-1,2011年的p H和EC平均值分别为3.34和505μS·cm-1.2011年雾水酸性变强的原因主要考虑到酸性物质比重增加.海洋源离子Cl-和Na+的离子浓度很高;SO_2-4和NO-3具有同源性,人为污染的贡献明显.2010和2011年总离子浓度(TIC)的平均值分别为38260μeq·L~(-1)和5600μeq·L~(-1),而实际大气中离子负荷量相差不大,主要是由于2011年观测地点海拔高度的升高会降低湍流因子的影响,减少粒径较大雾滴的沉降,从而促使液态水含量增加,在大气中污染物质浓度变化不大的情况下,离子浓度下降.     

钢框架梁柱节点抗震性能拟静力试验研究

梁柱节点在钢框架结构中处于竖向荷载和水平荷载交汇关键部位,直接决定结构的受力性能和抗震能力。依托北京市档案馆新馆工程,根据工程需要和设计规范要求,对3个采用传统连接形式的钢框架梁柱节点,采取循坏加载的拟静力试验方法进行抗震性能研究,探讨了连接构造形式、冷作硬化效应和加载方案等对节点承载力、延性和破坏模式的影响。试验结果表明,传统连接形式节点具有承载力高、变形小、设计和施工简便的优点,但易发生脆性破坏;冷作硬化可以提高试件的承载力和变形能力,但不改变最终失效模式;加载方案对失效模式没有影响。