BASIN SCALE WATER MANAGEMENT AND FORECASTING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: Water scarcity in the Sevier River Basin in south‐central Utah has led water managers to seek advanced techniques for identifying optimal forecasting and management measures. To more efficiently use the limited quantity of water in the basin, better methods for control and forecasting are imperative. Basin scale management requires advanced forecasts of the availability of water. Information about long term water availability is important for decision making in terms of how much land to plant and what crops to grow; advanced daily predictions of streamflows and hydraulic characteristics of irrigation canals are of importance for managing water delivery and reservoir releases; and hourly forecasts of flows in tributary streams to account for diurnal fluctuations are vital to more precisely meet the day‐to‐day expectations of downstream farmers. A priori streamflow information and exogenous climate data have been used to predict future streamflows and required reservoir releases at different timescales. Data on snow water equivalent, sea surface temperatures, temperature, total solar radiation, and precipitation are fused by applying artificial neural networks to enhance long term and real time basin scale water management information. This approach has not previously been used in water resources management at the basin‐scale and could be valuable to water users in semi‐arid areas to more efficiently utilize and manage scarce water resources.     

Efficacy of created and restored nesting sites for the conservation of colonial Laridae in the South of France

By rapidly modifying key habitat components, habitat restoration is at risk of producing attractive cues for animals without providing habitats of sufficient quality. As such, individual fitness components, such as reproduction, could be reduced and restored habitats could become ecological traps. This risk notably appears by using artificial constructions in restoration projects, yet few studies have evaluated their efficacy in a robust way. We investigated this by analyzing 154 islets that were created or restored to improve the conservation status of 7 colonial Laridae species in the South of France. From 2007 to 2016, we compared occupancy dynamics and breeding parameters of these species between the restored sites and 846 unmanaged nesting sites. We also explored species’ preference for different nesting site characteristics and their respective effect on breeding parameters. Restored nesting sites were 2–9 times as attractive as unmanaged sites for all species except the Black-headed Gull (Chroicocephalus ridibundus). Colonization probability was up to 100 times higher in sites already used by other species the previous year and increased with distance to the shore until >0.2 when distance was over 250 m. Abandonment probability was 29–70% lower when breeding was successful the previous year in all species except the Sandwich Tern (Thalasseus sandvicensis). Productivity and breeding success probability were 2 times higher on managed sites. Distance from the shore was an important attractive characteristic of artificial nesting sites in all species. Other nesting site characteristics had species-specific effects on colonization, abandonment, and breeding success. Our results indicate that managed nesting sites are successful conservation tools for colonial Laridae in the Mediterranean and do not act as ecological traps. Our study showed that testing the ecological trap hypothesis is a robust way to evaluate the success of restoration projects of breeding habitats.     

How effective are River Basin Management Plans in reaching the nutrient load reduction targets?

Riverine nutrient loads are among the major causes of eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. This study applied the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in three catchments flowing to the Baltic Sea, namely Vantaanjoki (Finland), Fyrisån (Sweden), and Słupia (Poland), to simulate the effectiveness of nutrient control measures included in the EU’s Water Framework Directive River Basin Management Plans (RBMPs). Moreover, we identified similar, coastal, middle-sized catchments to which conclusions from this study could be applicable. The first modelling scenario based on extrapolation of the existing trends affected the modelled nutrient loads by less than 5%. In the second scenario, measures included in RBMPs showed variable effectiveness, ranging from negligible for Słupia to 28% total P load reduction in Vantaanjoki. Adding spatially targeted measures to RBMPs (third scenario) would considerably improve their effectiveness in all three catchments for both total N and P, suggesting a need to adopt targeting more widely in the Baltic Sea countries.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01393-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

罕见冬季降雨中人工增雨微物理过程分析研究

用Micaps实时资料、CPAS卫星反演分析资料、NCEP再分析资料、ECMWF再分析资料,多普勒雷达PUP产品资料,对2015年12月1日夜间至2日凌晨沈阳地区罕见冬季降雨过程,进行了天气学分析、及大气微物理人工增雨作业条件分析,并结合沈阳地区人工增雨作业指标,得出本次降雨过程在厄尔尼诺正在发生的背景下,为常见的高空槽转东北冷涡型,水汽、动力等微物理作业条件也适合于开展人工增雨作业,并给出了相应的作业指导参数,为沈阳地区今后在冬季降雨天气过程中开展人工增雨作业积累了宝贵经验.     

ABC算法优化SVR的磨损故障预测模型

目的为了提高故障预测的精度,针对支持向量回归SVR(Support vector machine for regression,SVR)参数选择困难的问题,提出一种采用人工蜂群(artificial bee colony,ABC)算法优化支持向量回归(SVR)的故障预测模型(ABC-SVR)。方法该模型先对样本数据进行重构,然后将故障预测误差(适应度)作为优化目标,通过ABC算法寻优找到最优的SVR参数,建立故障预测模型。最后通过实例仿真验证模型的优越性。结果采用ABC算法优化的SVR故障预测模型进行时间序列预测,能够较好地跟踪发动机滑油金属元素浓度的变化过程,并且能够提前2个取样时间预测异常情况的出现。结论 ABC-SVR模型有效解决了SVR参数选择难题,能够更加准确地表现故障变化规律,提高了故障预测精度。     

饭馆、餐厅油烟机、风机噪声扰民实例研究

随着城市化进程的加快,人民生活水平的提高,饭馆、餐厅的油烟机、风机等设施噪声扰民的事件频发。本文通过对饭馆、餐厅一条街噪声扰民事件进行原因分析、采取防治措施、治理效果验证,提出了饭馆、餐厅等社会娱乐服务场的噪声防治措施,对提高人民生活水平、减少居民投诉、促进社会和谐具有建设性意义。     

临沧孟定镇天然橡胶加工业对环境的污染及防治措施

根据临沧市孟定镇天然橡胶加工业中存在的选址不合理、臭气及废水污染严重等问题,提出严格执行相关规划及准入条件、加强监管、严格执法及强化宣传教育等一系列措施。     

飓风“桑迪＂的影响及启示研究

城市地区突发自然灾害常常会对给水排水设施造成不利影响。飓风“桑迪”于2012年10月29日登陆美国,多个东部城市出现大面积停电,缺水,交通中断以及罕见的城市内涝,造成重大人员伤亡和巨额财产损失,严重地影响了当地人们正常的生产和生活。从飓风“桑迪”对美国城市给水和排水系统造成的巨大破坏出发,并结合当地政府采取的紧急应对措施展开讨论,总结其中的经验教训及启示。     

丽江市九子海村生态旅游运营保障对策研究

针对丽江市九子海生态旅游开发过程中可能出现的野生生物生存受到威胁、自然环境可能被破坏的情况,根据该地区的自然生境现状,结合未来生态旅游发展的预期,提出九子海生态旅游运营的保障措施,包括：九子海村主体功能区划分、旅游合作社运营与管理机制、运用生态补偿政策、每日最大旅游人数限制（≤200人）、提高本地村民环保意识、草句核心区放牧限制和核心区外围农田农作物种植引导等措施。     

新城镇建设中环境污染应急监测体系的建立及防控策略

我国目前正处于城镇化建设快速发展期,环境污染问题却越来越突出,导致水资源、土壤资源、大气资源、林业资源等环境资源也遭受重创,威胁城镇居民的身体健康和生命安全。新城镇环境污染事故应急监测体系建设是保障新城镇建设健康发展和保护居民健康的有效手段。通过对新城镇建设中环境污染事故实证分析,提出了新城镇建设中环境污染应急监测体系的建立以及防控策略、