Contract renegotiation and rent re-distribution: Who gets raked over the coals?

Policy shocks affect the rent distribution in long-term contracts, which can lead to such contracts being renegotiated. We seek an understanding of what aspects of contract design, in the face of a substantial policy shock, affect the propensity to renegotiate. We test our hypotheses using data on U.S. coal contracts after the policy shock of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. Contracts are divided into two categories, those that were renegotiated following the shock and those that were not. Characteristics of the contract are used to explain whether or not the contract was ultimately renegotiated. Results provide guidance on rent re-distribution and contract renegotiation more generally and are applicable to contemporary policy issues such as climate change legislation.     

Self-organization of tropical seasonal rain forest in southwest China

How to measure development of ecosystems is both a theoretical and practical question in ecology. Species richness and biomass accumulation are familiar figures of merit, but they cannot be instant watched. Self-organization is a tacit character. However, methods to measure the degree of self-organization of ecosystem are problematic. To this end Lin et al. (2009) have devised indicators of energy capture and dissipation so that self-organization defined via maximum energy dissipation can be quantified easily. Here the method is used to analyze long-term data (2004-2006) of a tropical seasonal rain forest included in the ChinaFLUX program. Three years of average self-organization values were clearly separated by seasonal variation. Reflection and long wave radiation are the main two pathways of energy loss. For tropical seasonal rain forest studied, long wave radiation contributed most to energy loss, and was negatively correlated with energy capture ability (Rn/DR). The nocturnal difference between canopy and air temperatures had a strong negative correlation with the long wave radiation loss ratio. However, the long wave radiation loss ratio was slightly lower than the reflection loss ratio in rainy season, when values were very low. Precipitation and wind had significant impact on energy dissipation ability in the hot dry season, but the correlation coefficients between precipitation and wind with thermal response numbers (TRNs) were very low. The results indicated that the self-organization estimation system based on “maximum energy dissipation theory” is applicable for tropical forest.     

暴雨洪涝灾害对社会经济和人民生活的影响分析

自然灾害的发生不仅给人类社会造成直接的损害，还具有极强的后效效应，本文以分析暴雨洪涝灾害对我国国民经济和灾区经济的影响情况，揭示了暴雨洪涝灾害对社会经济发生的短期和长期影响特征。     

ANN OUTPUT UPDATING OF LUMPED CONCEPTUAL RAINFALL/RUNOFF FORECASTING MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are tested for the output updating of one‐day‐ahead and three‐day‐ahead streamflow forecasts derived from three lumped conceptual rainfall/runoff (R‐R) models: the GR4J, the IHAC, and the TOPMO. ANN output updating proved superior to a parameter updating scheme and to the ‘simple’ output updating scheme, which always replicates the last observed forecast error. In fact, ANN output updating was able to compensate for large differences in the initial performance of the three tested lumped conceptual R‐R models, which the other tested updating approaches were not able to achieve. This is done mainly by incorporating input vectors usually exploited for ANN R‐R modeling such as previous rainfall and streamflow observations, in addition to the previous observed error. For one‐day‐ahead forecasts, the performance of all three lumped conceptual R‐R models, used in conjunction with ANN output updating, was equivalent to that of the ANN R‐R model. For three‐day‐ahead forecasts, the performance of the ANN‐output‐updated conceptual models was even superior to that of the ANN R‐R model, revealing that the conceptual models are probably performing some tasks that the ANN R‐R model cannot map. However, further testing is needed to substantiate the last statement.     

人工智能助力臭氧催化剂SrFexZr1-xO3的开发

将人工智能应用于催化臭氧氧化催化剂SrFe_xZr_1-xO₃的开发过程,采用共沉淀法制备了50种不同配方的催化剂,考察聚乙二醇（PEG）投加量、煅烧时间、老化时间、氨水投加量和铁掺杂量对SrFe_xZr_1-xO₃催化剂催化臭氧降解间甲酚反应活性的影响.同时,利用人工神经网络（ANN）和响应面（RSM）对催化剂合成条件与TOC去除率和间甲酚转化率的关系进行拟合,训练集中ANN的R²值分别为0.91和0.97,高于RSM的R²值0.35和0.41;在4组测试集上ANN的均方误差（MSE）分别为9.87和17.67,远小于RSM的23.89和28.87.结果表明,ANN模型对催化剂制备过程的复杂体系具有更好的拟合和泛化能力.在ANN训练好的模型中通过枚举法寻找最优合成条件为：PEG投加量为19.00%,煅烧时间为1.25 h,老化时间为26.50 h,氨水投加量为6.21 mL,铁掺杂量为3.37%,所得催化剂为SrFe_0.13Zr_0.87O₃-B.最佳反应条件下,间甲酚转化率和TOC去除率分别达到98.52%和17.21%,优于空白组的73.46%和1.86%.     

光照、流速和水温对大型人工输水渠道自净影响

以南水北调中线总干渠为对象,通过实验室模拟培养测定污染物降解系数,分析了光照、流速和温度对渠道自净能力的影响.结果显示,避光和光照条件下,高锰酸盐指数的降解系数分别为0.026和0.022d^-1,无显著性差异（P>0.05）;氨氮的降解系数分别为0.006和0.012d^-1,差异极显著（P<0.01）.各流速条件下高锰酸盐指数降解系数分别为0.027d^-1（0.2m/s）、0.029d^-1（0.3m/s）、0.029d^-1（0.4m/s）,氨氮降解系数分别为0.014d^-1（0.2m/s）、0.017d^-1（0.3m/s）、0.018d^-1（0.4m/s）,不同流速之间无显著性差异,但均显著高于0m/s实验组（P<0.05）.各温度条件下高锰酸盐指数降解系数分别为0.014d^-1（10℃）、0.018d^-1（15℃）、0.022d^-1（20℃）、0.029d^-1（25℃）和0.031d^-1（30℃）,25~30℃差异不显著（P>0.05）,其他各温度梯度之间均存在显著性差异;氨氮降解系数分别为0.002d^-1（10℃）、0.003d^-1（15℃）、0.010d^-1（20℃）、0.012d^-1（25℃）和0.020d^-1（30℃）,10~15℃、15~20℃和20~25℃差异不显著,其他温度梯度之间均具有显著差异.高锰酸盐指数和氨氮的温度校正系数θ值分别为1.047和1.079.研究结果可为中线工程水质管理提供依据.     

Fe3O4/GO对水溶液中Cd(II)去除的影响因素

为探索高效且快速去除水溶液中Cd （Ⅱ）污染方法,采用自制磁性四氧化三铁负载氧化石墨烯（Fe₃O₄/GO）纳米复合材料对水溶液中Cd （Ⅱ）进行去除,利用单因素实验确定影响因素水平范围（初始Cd （Ⅱ）浓度、温度、反应时间、初始pH值）,并采用响应面法（RSM）及人工神经网络-遗传算法（ANN-GA）对去除水溶液中Cd （Ⅱ）的影响因素（4因素3水平）进行优化,利用等温吸附、动力学及热力学参数研究吸附剂性能.通过扫描电子显微镜（SEM）、X射线衍射仪及超导量子干涉器件（SQUID）对复合材料表征.结果表明,平均粒径为30.9nm的磁性Fe₃O₄/GO纳米复合材料被成功制备.RSM用于磁性Fe₃O₄/GO纳米复合材料对水溶液中Cd （Ⅱ）去除条件优化,预测去除率达到86.451%,验证试验为82.220%,对应条件：温度为20.14℃,反应时间为57.78min,初始pH值为6.41和初始Cd （Ⅱ）浓度为11.18mg/L; ANN-GA优化条件后的预测去除率为89.722%,验证试验为87.723%,相应条件：温度为29.96℃,pH值为5.49,初始Cd （Ⅱ）浓度为28.36mg/L,反应时间为65.78min.根据模型R²值,预测的最大去除率及验证试验,ANN-GA模型性能及预测能力均高于RSM.RSM方差分析表明4个因素对磁性Fe₃O₄/GO纳米复合材料去除水溶液中Cd （Ⅱ）的影响大小为：初始Cd （Ⅱ）浓度>温度>反应时间>pH值.吸附机理分析结果显示,Fe₃O₄/GO纳米复合材料对Cd （Ⅱ）吸附过程同时存在着物理吸附和化学吸附.结合ANN-GA优化,利用磁铁实现且快速分离,磁性Fe₃O₄/GO纳米复合材料用于去除Cd （Ⅱ）是可行的.关键字：Cd （Ⅱ）;四氧化三铁负载氧化石墨烯;单因素实验;响应面法;人工神经网络-遗传算法中图分类号：X53     

湿式电除尘器对燃煤电厂烟尘的深度处理

简介了湿式电除尘器的结构特点和工作原理,通过对燃煤电厂脱硫后湿式电除尘器的应用,提出了对湿式电除尘器在选型、应用上的建议,对湿式电除尘技术的发展前景进行了探讨。     

地下水人工回灌水化学因素对生物堵塞的影响

通过室内砂柱实验及扫描电镜,红外光谱,光电子能谱等技术,研究回灌水中离子强度及回灌过程中水-岩作用对细菌在饱和多孔介质中迁移及滞留的影响,揭示回灌过程中离子强度对介质生物堵塞演化规律及其作用机理的影响.结果表明,适宜的离子强度刺激细菌的生长及胞外聚合物（EPS）的生成,导致介质渗透性下降幅度达到99%,离子强度过高或过低都会抑制微生物的生长;Na⁺可以中和介质与细菌表面的负电荷,通过压缩双电层及减少静电斥力,进而增强细菌在介质表面的附着能力;介质中的碳酸盐矿物水解可导致环境pH值升高,诱导介质中的微量SiO₂,Al₂O₃等矿物溶解,促使介质孔隙度增大,延缓生物堵塞的发生时间并缓解堵塞程度;外源Na⁺及内源介质溶解产生的Ca²⁺,Mg²⁺,Al （III）,刺激细菌产生更多的EPS,同时化学离子与EPS的官能团以新的官能团和化学键结合,形成新的物质,对堵塞的发生和演化起促进作用;溶解产生的Mg²⁺,Ca²⁺与细菌呼吸产生的CO₂,在微碱性条件下反应形成新的沉淀,也对堵塞产生促进作用.