不确定性流域污染负荷优化分配模型及其应用

流域优化决策模型以最优化建模方法指导流域管理决策过程,然而流域系统的不确定性会导致决策存在一定风险.本研究通过建立区间参数机会约束线性规划(ICILP)模型来处理流域决策过程中的不确定性,并将该模型运用于太滆运河流域优化决策中,探讨在不同违反概率下系统最优解.结果表明,随着允许入湖量约束违反概率增加,系统对污染物削减量和削减成本有所降低.由于受到经济成本和削减量约束,系统优先减小环境代价较大、削减效率较低的工程项目规模.但受到最低处理率约束,违反概率增加到一定水平时各工程项目趋于定值.虽然较高的违反概率使系统成本降低,但也会导致削减效率降低,不利于流域保护.因此,在实际管理中应根据管理需求选择合适的削减方案以达到保护流域水质的目标.     

A double‐edged sword: The moderating role of conscientiousness in the relationships between work stressors,psychological strain,and job performance

Although conscientiousness was commonly viewed as a type of personal resource to help individuals reduce strain or mitigate the impacts of stressors, empirical research demonstrated mixed results. Based on the personal resource allocation perspective, we posited that rather than functioning as personal resource per se, conscientiousness may act as a key factor influencing how individuals allocate their personal resources. The current study examined the moderating roles of conscientiousness in the relationships that work stressors (i.e., challenge stressors and hindrance stressors) have with employee psychological strain and job performance by using multi‐source, time‐lagged data collected from 250 employees working at two companies. The results showed that both challenge stressors and hindrance stressors were positively related to psychological strain. Conscientiousness moderated the relationships between both stressors and psychological strain, such that the positive relationships were stronger for individuals with high conscientiousness. Conscientiousness also moderated the relationship between challenge stressors and performance, such that the relationship was positive for individuals with high conscientiousness but negative for those with low conscientiousness. Altogether, the findings suggest that conscientiousness acts as a double‐edged sword that both promotes performance and exacerbates the stress reaction of employees when they are confronted with stressful situations. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

山西排污权交易实践、问题与对策研究

山西是中国环境污染最为严重的省区之一,经济发展与环境保护的矛盾非常突出.开展排污权有偿使用和交易,是山西省创新环保机制体制、服务经济社会发展的迫切需要.2010年,山西省获批成为国家排污权交易试点省份之一.概括总结了山西省排污权交易的实践及存在问题,提出今后要在合理核定和分配初始排污权、积极创新排污权质押与租赁机制、加强排污量监测核定等方面积极开展工作体制机制创新,把试点工作推向深入的政策建议.     

决策偏好对水环境污染物总量分配的影响

总量分配是制订污染物总量控制方案的基础,在总量分配方法中合理性指数法是由各因素组成的多目标分配方法,是一种新方法、新思路.由于各因素之间对应的权重系数通常采用专家打分方法确定,因此,分析主观性对总量分配结果的影响具有十分重要的意义.论文共选取30名不同领域的人员,并进行分组,分别对权重因子进行打分,分析不同类型的人员权重分布的特点及其对污染物总量分配结果的影响.研究结果表明:不同人员的权重因子对污染物总量分配具有一定的影响,对最后的决策结果产生一定的不确定性.从分配总量结果来看,TN、TP平均值分别为1.64万t·a-1、0.12万t·a-1,标准差分别为0.16万t·a-1、0.014万t·a-1,变差系数分别为0.09、0.12;从分组结果来看,管理人员一致性较好,研究人员一致性较差.总体而言,综合考虑不同领域专家的意见是保持总量分配方案的合理性和一致性的有效途径.     

纳污海域水环境容量计算与总量分配方法研究——以钦州湾为例

经过比较,明确了选用多源线性迭加的方法来计算纳污海域环境容量更加便利和有效,确定了纳污海域水环境容量计算中的几个重要条件,在对“背景浓度”的处理上引入了最大日均值的概念,使得计算结果更加安全可靠。在此基础上,以广西钦州湾为例,用多元线性迭加法计算出纳污海域两个规划排污口联合排放的无机氮、COD、石油类的最大允许排放量。优化了污染物排放方法,为钦州湾污染物排放提供了科学依据。     

The theoretical value of encounters with parasitized hosts for parasitoids

A female parasitoid searching for hosts in a patch experiences a diminishing encounter rate with unparasitized and thus suitable hosts. To use the available time most efficiently, it constantly has to decide whether to stay in the patch and continue to search for hosts or to search for and travel to another patch in the habitat. Several informational cues can be used to optimize the searching success. Theoretically, encounters with unparasitized hosts should lead to a prolonged search in a given patch if hosts are distributed contagiously. The results of empirical studies strongly support this hypothesis. However, it has, to date, not been investigated theoretically whether encounters with already parasitized hosts (which usually entail time costs) provide a parasitoid with valuable information for the optimization of its search in depletable patches, although the empirical studies concerning this question so far have produced ambiguous results. Building on recent advances in Bayesian foraging strategies, we approached this problem by modeling a priori searching strategies (which differ in the amount of information considered) and then testing them in computer simulations. By comparing the strategies, we were able to determine whether and how encounters with already parasitized hosts can yield information that can be used to enhance a parasitoid’s searching success.

Evolution of extreme polyandry in the honeybee Apis mellifera L.

A number of hypotheses have been proposed to explain the evolution of multiple mating in the honeybee queen. In particular, the consequences of reduced intracolonial relatedness provide plausible explanations for multiple mating with up to ten drones, but fail to account for the much higher mating frequencies observed in nature. In this paper, we propose an alternative mechanism which builds on non-linear relationships between intracolonial frequencies in genotypic worker specialization and colony fitness. If genes for any worker specialization confer an advantage on colony fitness only when they are rare, this would require a stable mix of sperm from a few drones which contribute that trait, and many which do not. To ensure both specific, low within-colony proportions of “rare specialist” genes, and to reduce random variation of these proportions would require mating with high numbers of drones. The quantitative implementation shows that moderate to very high numbers of matings are required to exploit colony advantages from genotypic allocation of workers to rare tasks. Extreme polyandry thus could result from colony selection dependent on the intracolonial frequency of rare genetic specialists. Received: 30 January 1998 / Accepted after revision: 7 October 1998     

Development of Future Generations： Oriented Virtual Negotiation Support System for Intergenerational Conflict

Intergenerational conflict coordination is the fundamental requirement and core of sustainable development. In this paper, through the analysis of the future generations-oriented management mechanisms for intergenerational conflict, the idea of mechanisms and institution building for the coordination and management of intergenerational conflict is put forward. Furthermore, the future generations-oriented virtual negotiation support system （NSS） for intergenerational conflict is developed, built on the analysis of the process simulation of intergenerational wealth transfer, intergenerational equilibrium allocation of resources, and strategies for the mitigation and avoidance of intergenerational conflict, through the application of advanced IT technology. The virtual NSS for intergenerational conflict is helpful to the practical application of the sustainable development theory; on the other hand, it can be applied directly to the intergenerational equilibrium allocation of resources, national economic accounting, formulation of sustainable development strategies and other urgent national economic and social development issues. Finally, the sustainable development theory can be enriched and extended. Therefore, the development of the future generations-oriented virtual NSS for intergenerational conflict has certain theoretical and practical effects on the theory of sustainable development.     

Balance the Paradox between Limited Health Resources and Growing Demands for Medical Services

Health institutions in the People＇s Republic of China are under considerable challenge. Innovations in management systems may support the challenge to increase both efficiency and effectiveness. The balanced scorecard （BSC） is one such innovation. We have used a model to explore the factors that may impact the diffusion of the BSC in Chinese government hospitals. In particular, we concentrate on three factors - the outer context, the nature of the innovation and the communication and influence. The outer context and the nature of the innovation do provide an inducement to implement a BSC. The strength of the communication and influence may affect the level of take-up. However, we recognise that they may choose ＂the BSC not for any apparent technical excellence but for the legitimation that Western management practices may bring to local managers.     

OPTIMIZATION OF WATER RESOURCES FOR IRRIGATION IN EAST JORDAN1

The paper describes an approach towards optimal allocation of surface and ground water resources to three agricultural areas in the Jordan Valley under conditions of scarce water supply. The optimizing model allocates water from three main rivers, each with reservoir storage, and from two ground water sources to three irrigation regions. Productivity of irrigation water, expressed as the net present value of the regional agricultural output, but allowing for crop water deficits, is first maximized using nonlinear programming. The allocation process then adopts techniques of linear programming to determine the least cost alternative based on the unit cost of water from each resource at each destination, as it varies with time.