Estimating Relevance of Organic Carbon,Nitrogen, and Phosphorus Loads to a Blackwater River Estuary1

Abstract: In blackwater river estuaries, a large portion of external carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus load are combined in complex organic molecules of varying recalcitrance. Determining their lability is essential to establishing the relationship between anthropogenic loads and eutrophication. A method is proposed in which organic C, N, and P are partitioned into labile and refractory forms, based upon first‐order decay estimated by biochemical oxygen demand relative to total organic carbon, and C:N and C:P ratios as a function of organic carbon lability. The technique was applied in developing total maximum daily loads for the lower St. Johns, a blackwater Atlantic coastal plain river estuary in Northeast Florida. Point source organic nutrients were determined to be largely labile. Urban runoff was found to have the highest relative labile organic N and P content, followed by agricultural runoff. Natural forest and silviculture runoff were high in refractory organic N and P. Upstream labile C, N, and P loads were controlled by autochthonous production, with 34‐50% of summer total labile carbon imported as algal biomass. Differentiation of labile and refractory organic forms suggests that while anthropogenic nutrient enrichment has tripled the total nitrogen load, it has resulted in a 6.7‐fold increase in total labile nitrogen load.     

Let Them Eat Risk? Wealth,Rights and Disaster Vulnerability

Disaster-vulnerability reduction is an impure public good: when provided to one it is provided to others, but not equally provided to all. This means that in addition to the question of how much disaster-vulnerability reduction to provide, policymakers face the question of to whom it should be provided. This essay distinguishes between two broad classes of approaches to the latter question, one based on wealth, the other on rights.     

我国水污染负荷总量分配模型研究进展及分析

对我国目前水污染总量分配模型的研究进展,包括总量分配基本方法研究和水污染负荷分配模型研究的进展进行了综述及分析,以期为新模型的建立提供更充分的理论基础。     

No evidence for sperm priming responses under varying sperm competition risk or intensity in guppies

Sperm competition theory predicts that males should tailor their investment in ejaculates according to the number of rival males competing to fertilize a female’s eggs. Research spanning several taxa supports this prediction by showing that males are often sensitive to the level of sperm competition and adjust their investment in sperm numbers accordingly. More recent work has revealed that males may also tailor the quality of sperm according to the number of males competing for fertilization. Here I test for both effects in guppies (Poecilia reticulata) in an experiment that simultaneously evaluates the risk and intensity models of sperm competition. The experiment determined whether male guppies adjust the number (stripped ejaculate size) and quality (sperm velocity and viability) of sperm that are primed over a 3-day period according to experimental changes in the perceived level of sperm competition. A total of 136 focal males were initially stripped of all retrievable sperm and assayed for these sperm traits before being allocated at random to one of four treatments simulating different levels of sperm competition risk and intensity. During the 3-day treatment phase, focal males had visual and olfactory access to a sexually receptive (initially virgin) female maintained with different numbers of stimulus males to simulate variation in the risk and intensity of sperm competition. Following this, males were assayed again for the sperm traits. Contrary to predictions, there was no significant change in any of the measured variables among treatments, although qualitatively the patterns for sperm velocity and viability did conform to expectation. The lack of any trend for the number of sperm primed was unequivocal and future work examining the effects of sperm competition on sperm production should focus on whether males differentially allocate sperm numbers among matings that differ in the level of sperm competition.     

一种排污权初始分配结构设计框架

作为一种新型环境政策,排污权交易在美国已经成功地演进为总量控制型排污权交易,这被认为是最接近市场经济的环境管理手段。在国内,排污权交易也日益受到政府的重视。自1988年以来,中国的许多地方都先后试点了排污权交易,但多停留在补偿政策,很少有关于总量控制型排污权交易的尝试。在政策设计的技术层面,造成这种状况的一个主要原因是缺乏有效的排污权初始分配结构设计框架。为此,在区域清洁激励市场计划排污权初始分配结构的基础上,针对渐进式减排战略指导下的总量控制型排污权交易计划,分纵向结构设计和横向结构设计两部分,提出了一种具有通用性的排污权初始分配结构设计框架。这有助于合理进行排污权初始分配。     

中国CO2排放总量控制区域分解方案研究

探讨CO2排放总量区域分解的方法.借鉴国际上针对国家之间的分解原则和方法,提出中国省际之间的分解的公平性、可行性和效率性三大原则;确定了排放水平、经济水平、工业能源利用水平、非化石能源利用水平4大影响因子;提出了人均排放量、人均GDP、工业增加值能耗、工业增加值能耗变化趋势、非化石能源占一次能源消费比例5个指标,构建了...     

珠江三角洲森林生态系统碳密度分配及其储量动态特征

 在测定植被的含碳率与土壤有机碳含量的基础上,研究了南亚热带珠江三角洲地区森林生态系统碳密度分配及其储量动态.结果表明:植被平均含碳率为35.81%~51.60%,按照生物量加权的含碳率为46.57%~52.45%;土壤有机碳含量及其差异程度为表层最高,随土壤深度增加,有机碳含量及其差异逐渐减小;相同龄级的植被含碳率与土壤含碳量均表现为阔叶林>针阔混交林>针叶林,不同龄级的森林均表现为成龄林>中龄林>幼龄林.植被碳密度与土壤碳密度范围分别为23.58~139.18,55.54~151.16t/hm2,而且土壤分配比例均大于植被分配比例,但土壤分配比例随着龄级的增长呈下降趋势.1989~2003年间,珠江三角洲森林生态系统总体碳储量及其碳密度均呈上升趋势,这说明在改革开放高速发展时期珠江三角洲森林生态系统由于生物量的增加,起到了重要的碳汇功能,而且其碳汇功能正逐步提高.     

跨境水资源分配典型模式特征评述及中国主张思考

跨境河流治理的核心是跨境水资源分配问题。结合案例分析,从流域国利益关系视角概括出四种跨境水资源分配典型模式——“强权”模式、“传承”模式、“绅士”模式和“共享”模式,并从适用条件、磋商履约、运行效率和潜在问题等方面进行特征评述。对跨境河流水资源分配的中国主张提出如下建议：拒绝“强权”模式,依托“一带一路”走出“水霸权”话语困境;主张“共享”模式,倡导构建跨境水资源“命运共同体”;对水资源相对丰沛的跨境流域,主张创新特殊水情下的跨境水资源调控机制;对水资源相对稀缺的跨境流域,通过实施虚拟水贸易战略促进“共享”;排除外界干扰,主张建立独立、权威的跨境水资源协调机构。     

基于SCGE的国土空间规划模拟框架CTSPM及其在国土空间安全模拟仿真中的应用

土地利用指标的区域配置与部门配置是我国国土空间规划体系的核心问题。如何在贯彻落实国家意志和中央战略的前提下,根据我国不同类型自然地理区划和经济社会区划的发展实际,特别是根据城镇化格局定型区、发展型城镇化地区和收缩型城镇化地区等三类不同地区的土地利用的实际,充分顾及各级地方政府的发展意愿,优化配置各类用地指标,是本轮国土空间规划不可或缺的首要的基本任务。基于此,建立一个基于空间可计算一般均衡模型（SCGE）的多尺度、多区域、多情景国土空间规划模拟分析框架（CTSPM）,提出该框架在国土空间安全模拟仿真中的实际应用场景,以支持多种国家发展情景和土地指标分配方案下国土空间格局模拟分析,及其经济社会影响和生态环境影响分析,为各地区、各部门之间的土地指标“博弈”提供“辩论”平台,为科学编制国土空间规划以及深度理解国土空间安全的跨区域影响提供分析性框架。     

飞机整机级系统安全性评估方法探讨

为提高飞机整机级系统安全性评估效果,在明确整机级系统安全性评估思想的情况下,详细描述了整机级系统安全性分析和整机级系统安全性验证的流程;运用故障树分析法和故障模式与影响分析法研究了能够满足整机级系统安全性要求的评估方法和关键技术。实例表明:整机级严酷等级评估方法能够定性地防止颠覆性的逻辑错误;功能故障树可以对安全性指标进行精确的分配和计算;结合故障树和故障模式与影响分析法而形成的两阶段指标分配法提高了个别安全性指标数值,但仍符合安全性要求。