基于卫星夜间灯光数据的中国分省碳排放时空模拟

中国能源统计数据"横向不可比,纵向不可加"现象依然突出,尤其是分省能源消费统计千差万别,给分省碳排放评估带来了较大困难,如何利用卫星遥感数据科学合理地估算中国分省碳排放是当前亟须研究的问题。本文运用DMSP/OLS全球稳定夜间灯光数据,在通过相互校正、年内融合和年际间校正等系列处理得到中国分省稳定夜间灯光数据的基础上,首先分别构建中国分省稳定夜间灯光亮度DN值与人均碳排放和单位面积碳排放之间的时空地理加权回归模型,两个模型整体效果均较好,拟合优度分别高达96.74%和99.24%;其次运用稳定夜间灯光亮度DN值对分省人均碳排放和单位面积碳排放进行时空模拟;最后运用人口规模和土地面积对分省碳排放进行估算。估算结果显示:(1)整体来看,2000—2013年年均碳排放模拟值与实际值6.3349×109t较为接近,两个模型的相对误差均在0.5%以内。(2)分年度来看,所有年份的相对误差均在5%以内,2006年分省加总碳排放模拟值与实际碳排放6.2036×109t最为接近,绝对误差和相对误差均较小,两个模型模拟值的相对误差均为0.04%。(3)分省域来看,2000—2013年年均碳排放模拟值与实际碳排放均非常接近,除海南和宁夏外,其余28个省区市的相对误差均在1%以内。(4)分年度分省域来看,以2013年为例,40%省份的相对误差在2%以内,70%省份的相对误差在5%以内。从整体、分年度、分省域、分年度分省域的估算结果来看,基于稳定夜间灯光数据的中国分省碳排放时空模拟效果良好。因此,运用卫星夜间灯光数据可以较为准确地对中国分省碳排放进行估算和预测,为卫星遥感影像数据服务分省碳排放监测和评估提供一种补充性参考。     

Carbon dioxide emissions from cities in China based on high resolution emission gridded data

Based on the China high resolution emission gridded data (1 km spatial resolution), this article is aimed to create a Chinese city carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission data set using consolidated data sources as well as normalized and standardized data processing methods. Standard methods were used to calculate city CO₂ emissions, including scope 1 and scope 2. Cities with higher CO₂ emissions are mostly in north, northeast, and eastern coastal areas. Cities with lower CO₂ emissions are in the western region. Cites with higher CO₂ emissions are clustered in the Jing-Jin-Ji Region (such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Tangshan), and the Yangtze River Delta region (such as Shanghai and Suzhou). The city per capita CO₂ emission is larger in the north than the south. There are obvious aggregations of cities with high per capita CO₂ emission in the north. Four cities among the top 10 per capita emissions (Erdos, Wuhai, Shizuishan, and Yinchuan) cluster in the main coal production areas of northern China. This indicates the significant impact of coal resources endowment on city industry and CO₂ emissions. The majority (77%) of cities have annual CO₂ emissions below 50 million tons. The mean annual emission, among all cities, is 37 million tons. Emissions from service-based cities, which include the smallest number of cities, are the highest. Industrial cities are the largest category and the emission distribution from these cities is close to the normal distribution. Emissions and degree of dispersion, in the other cities (excluding industrial cities and service-based cities), are in the lowest level. Per capita CO₂ emissions in these cities are generally below 20 t/person (89%) with a mean value of 11 t/person. The distribution interval of per capita CO₂ emission within industrial cities is the largest among the three city categories. This indicates greater differences among per capita CO₂ emissions of industrial cities. The distribution interval of per capita CO₂ emission of other cities is the lowest, indicating smaller differences of per capita CO₂ emissions among this city category. Three policy suggestions are proposed: first, city CO₂ emission inventory data in China should be increased, especially for prefecture level cities. Second, city responsibility for emission reduction, and partitioning the national goal should be established, using a bottom-up approach based on specific CO₂ emission levels and potential for emission reductions in each city. Third, comparative and benchmarking research on city CO₂ emissions should be conducted, and a Top Runner system of city CO₂ emission reduction should be established.     

Experimental thermal storage research of organic binary phase change materials in building environment

This paper aims to reveal the heat transfer mechanism of low-temperature phase change material (PCM) and design PCM heat storage device in building heating environment. Firstly, low-temperature binary PCMs of lauric acid and stearic acid are prepared, and their thermal properties are investigated by DSC. Then, shell and tube latent heat thermal energy storage units are conducted, and heat transfer experiments are carried out to analyze the heat transfer mechanism of PCM. The results demonstrate that natural convection plays an important role in heat transfer process, and the heat storage efficiency of PCMs can be significantly enhanced by increasing the fin width and improving the inlet heat transfer fluid (HTF) temperature. Furthermore, some proposals are put forward to guide the design of PCM storage device in building heating environment.     

Zr—Fe双组分复合除砷吸附剂的优化制备及性能评价

实验发现,铁氧化物或铁的羟基氧化物对As（V）有较好的吸附性能,而锆氧化物或锆水合氧化物则对As（Ⅲ）有优异的吸附选择性,但其使用的pH通常要在〉9的条件下。通过简单的共沉淀法制备了Zr-Fe双组分复合吸附剂,在制备过程中通过优化制备条件如：沉淀剂浓度、金属离子总浓度、金属离子配比、反应温度、反应时间及吸附剂价格等因素,最终合成出了对As（V）和As（Ⅲ）都具有良好吸附能力的吸附剂。这种吸附剂在中性条件下对As（V）和As（Ⅲ）的最大吸附量为62mg／g和118mg／g。     

中国环境效率评价及其影响因素实证研究

环境效率是实际污染排放和潜在污染排放的一种度量。本文运用包含污染排放的环境DEA模型,测算了1998-2007年中国省际环境效率,检验了其收敛情况。结果显示,全国环境效率总体水平较低,省际、区域间差距较大,表明现阶段实行地区间减排合作、推动环保技术在区域间扩散的现实必要性;分别从20032、005年开始,省际、区域环境效率差距逐渐缩小,存在一定的收敛趋势;同时,本文采用Tobit模型分析了影响环境效率因素,研究发现人均GDP对提高环境效率具有积极影响,而工业比重上升、财政分权度的提高以及贸易自由化对环境效率具有显著的负面影响。最后,基于实证研究的结果,就减少地区污染排放、提高我国环境效率给出了相关政策建议。     

上海霾气候数据序列重建及其时空特征

利用上海11个气象站点1960～2008年日均相对湿度、能见度以及天气现象资料,重建了上海近50a霾气候数据序列,并从时间和空间两个方面分析了上海霾日数的气候特征和变化规律。结果表明,上海霾气候数据序列重建值与报表记录值之间变化形态存在着较好的一致性,重建值较记录值偏高。1960～2008年,上海霾日数以9.7d/10a的线性趋势显著增加,2002年以后霾日数总体上呈减少趋势。上海多年平均霾日数以冬季最多而夏季最少。近50a,上海霾日数呈现出西南部最多-市区较多-东北和东南部最少的空间分布,霾日数的空间变化趋势则表现为西南部增加较多而东部增加较少。1981～2008年,上海霾日数在西部和南部都增加,东部则减少。     

Accumulation and quantitative estimates of airborne lead for a wild plant (Aster subulatus)

Foliar uptake of airborne lead is one of the pathways for Pb accumulation in plant organs. However, the approximate contributions of airborne Pb to plant organs are still unclear. In the present study, aerosols (nine-stage size-segregated aerosols and total suspended particulates), a wild plant species (Aster subulatus) and the corresponding soils were collected and Pb contents and isotopic ratios in these samples were analyzed. Average concentration of Pb was 96.5 ± 63.5 ng m⁻³ in total suspended particulates (TSP) and 20.4 ± 5.5 ng m⁻³ in the fine fractions of size-segregated aerosols (SSA) (<2.1 μm), higher than that in the coarser fractions (>2.1 μm) (6.38 ± 3.71 ng m⁻³). Enrichment factors show that aerosols and soils suffered from anthropogenic inputs and the fine fractions of the size-segregated aerosols enriched more Pb than the coarse fractions. The order of Pb contents in A. subulatus was roots > leaves > stems. The linear relationship of Pb isotope ratios (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁶Pb) among soil, plant and aerosol samples were found. Based on the simple binary Pb isotopic model using the mean ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratios in TSP and in SSA, the approximate contributions of airborne Pb into plant leaves were 72.2% and 65.1%, respectively, suggesting that airborne Pb is the most important source for the Pb accumulation in leaves. So the combination of Pb isotope tracing and the simple binary Pb isotope model can assess the contribution of airborne Pb into plant leaves and may be of interest for risk assessment of the exposure to airborne Pb contamination.     

Substituting missing data in compositional analysis

Multivariate analysis of environmental data sets requires the absence of missing values or their substitution by small values. However, if the data is transformed logarithmically prior to the analysis, this solution cannot be applied because the logarithm of a small value might become an outlier. Several methods for substituting the missing values can be found in the literature although none of them guarantees that no distortion of the structure of the data set is produced. We propose a method for the assessment of these distortions which can be used for deciding whether to retain or not the samples or variables containing missing values and for the investigation of the performance of different substitution techniques. The method analyzes the structure of the distances among samples using Mantel tests. We present an application of the method to PCDD/F data measured in samples of terrestrial moss as part of a biomonitoring study.     

Arsenic release from arsenic-bearing Fe-Mn binary oxide: effects of E(h) condition

Ferric and manganese binary oxide (FMBO) has been successfully used to remediate arsenic-polluted river, but there still lacks sufficient data to evaluate its effects on environments. The release behaviors of iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), and arsenic (As) in different E_h ranges were investigated for As-bearing FMBO sediment after remediating As-polluted DaSha River by FMBO. Under high E_h range (+550 to +400 mV), slight dissolution of Fe and Mn, which corresponded to 12.2% and 25.6%, and less than 5% of As release were observed in 336 h. Under lower E_h range (+50 to −100 mV), elevated extent of the dissolution of Mn and Fe were observed, which corresponded to as high as 61.3% and 70.1%. Under such conditions, the dissolution rate of Mn was higher than that of Fe. Furthermore, from the established relationship of As release and the dissolution of Fe and Mn, the release of As seemed dominated by the dissolution of Fe. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) analysis demonstrated the release of Fe, Mn, As(III), and As(V) after sodium ascorbate-treatment, and the re-adsorption of As(V), as indicated from the increased binding energy of As 3d from 44.78 to 45.83 eV. Surface element composition analysis indicated significant decrease of Mn from 3.22% to 0.54%, slight increase of Fe from 12.45% to 13.67%, and elevated ratio of As from 0.11% to 0.32% accordingly. The main reactions of Fe and Mn dissolution and the pathways of As release under different E_h ranges were also proposed.     

低碳消费偏好与低碳产品需求分析

低碳消费方式是低碳经济的重要环节,本文对低碳消费偏好和低碳产品需求及其影响因素作了理论分析和实证研究.首先对低碳产品的消费偏好进行了分析,低碳产品消费偏好的两个最重要特征是二元价值结构的产品和超越基本价值的消费偏好,在此基础上构建了低碳产品效用函数.然后根据低碳产品效用函数给出了低碳产品的一般需求模式,结合低碳产品置信度变量的引进,构建了一个具体的低碳产品需求函数,并对低碳产品需求函数进行分析,揭示了低碳产品需求的一些基本性质.为了验证低碳消费理论分析的结论,做了低碳产品消费的问卷调查.对问卷调查进行统计分析,结果表明:收入越高,对低碳产品支付的价格就越高;低碳产品的环境价值置信度越高,意愿支付价格就越商;低碳产品碳排放量降低越多,低碳产品需求价格就越高.最后,结合以上分析,从低碳宣传和公益广告、设立低碳产品标准、鼓励低碳产品技术研发角度提出了促进低碳消费发展的政策建议.