Consequence modeling of a real rupture of toluene storage tank

Chemicals used in paint industry are generally comprised of toxic and inflammable substances; they may cause serious problems for humans and environment if safety conditions are neglected. In 2012, rupture of a toluene tank in a paint factory in Iran claimed lives of two workers near the tank. The present study is formulated in order to model the incident. The results showed the area prone to flash fire occurrence and extension. Furthermore, radiation was measured in terms of distance to the tank. A bund wall is also assumed around the vessel in order to determine its influence on evaporation in flash fire area, radiation, and maximum concentration of vapor cloud. The results provided important hints on minimum and required distance of electrical equipment or electrical enclosure (PLC) installation from vessels as well as suitable distance between the vessels. Finally, preventive recommendations were proposed to reduce the risk of potential accidents.     

飞机结构电偶腐蚀仿真研究进展及应用方法

首先概述了电偶腐蚀仿真技术的发展史,然后分别对大气和浸泡两种典型环境下的电偶腐蚀模型进行了系统性阐述,从电解质域内控制方程和电极表面控制方程两方面对飞机电偶腐蚀仿真原理进行了归纳总结。最后基于目前电偶腐蚀仿真技术在飞机结构领域中的应用示例分析,对后期如何将数据和经验集成到飞机结构腐蚀仿真上进行了展望。     

酒店通风系统噪声治理及降噪效果模拟预测

本文结合某酒店通风系统噪声治理实例,根据进、排风口空间分布,气流噪声频谱特性等参数,采用Cadna/A软件对噪声源进行了建模,预测了不同楼层进、排风口安装具有不同消声量的消声器后关心点处降噪量。结果表明,酒店通风系统室外进、排风口消声器的消声量可根据各风口噪声对关心点的噪声贡献值大小合理确定消声量,在此基础上根据进、排风口气流噪声频谱等参数设计消声器;只要声学建模合理(特别是声源声功率级等参数取值),借助Cadna/A可较为有效地进行声源识别,确定各进、排风口对各关心点的噪声贡献值大小。     

pH modeling for maximum dissolved organic matter removal by enhanced coagulation

Correlations between raw water characteristics and pH after enhanced coagulation to maximize dissolved organic matter (DOM) removal using four typical coagulants (FeCl₃, Al₂(SO₄)₃, polyaluminum chloride (PACl) and high performance polyaluminum chloride (HPAC)) without pH control were investigated. These correlations were analyzed on the basis of the raw water quality and the chemical and physical fractionations of DOM of thirteen Chinese source waters over three seasons. It was found that the final pH after enhanced coagulation for each of the four coagulants was influenced by the content of removable DOM (i.e. hydrophobic and higher apparent molecular weight (AMW) DOM), the alkalinity and the initial pH of raw water. A set of feed-forward semi-empirical models relating the final pH after enhanced coagulation for each of the four coagulants with the raw water characteristics were developed and optimized based on correlation analysis. The established models were preliminarily validated for prediction purposes, and it was found that the deviation between the predicted data and actual data was low. This result demonstrated the potential for the application of these models in practical operation of drinking water treatment plants.     

Model-based evaluation on the conversion ratio of ammonium to nitrite in a nitritation process for ammonium-rich wastewater treatment

Modeling for nitritation process was discussed and analyzed quantitatively for the factors that influence nitrite accumulation. The results indicated that pH, inorganic carbon source and Hydraulic Retention Time(HRT) as well as biomass concentration are the main factors that influenced the conversion ratio of ammonium to nitrite. A constant high pH can lead to a high nitritation rate and results in high conversion ratio on condition that free ammonia inhibition do not happen. In a CSTR system, without pH control, this conversion ratio can be monitored by pH variation in the reactor. The pH goes down far from the inlet level means a strongly nitrite accumulation. High concentration of alkalinity can promoted the conversion ratio by means of accelerating the nitritation rate through providing sufficient inorganic carbon source(carbon dioxide). When inorganic carbon source was depleted, the nitritation process stopped. HRT adjustment could be an efficient way to make the nitritation system run more flexible, which to some extent can meet the requirements of the fluctuant of inlet parameters such as ammonium concentration, pH, and temperature and so on. Biomass concentration is the key point, especially for a CSTR system in steady state, which was normally circumscribed by the characteristics of bacteria and may also affected by aeration mode and can be increased by prolonging the HRT on the condition of no nitrate accumulation when no recirculation available. The higher the biomass concentration is, the better the nitrite accumulation can be obtained. accumulation     

Identifying climate change refugia for South American biodiversity

Refugia-based conservation offers long-term effectiveness and minimize uncertainty on strategies for climate change adaptation. We used distribution modelling to identify climate change refugia for 617 terrestrial mammals and to quantify the role of protected areas (PAs) in providing refugia across South America. To do so, we compared species potential distribution across different scenarios of climate change, highlighting those regions likely to retain suitable climatic conditions by year 2090, and explored the proportion of refugia inside PAs. Moist tropical forests in high-elevation areas with complex topography concentrated the highest local diversity of species refugia, although regionally important refugia centers occurred elsewhere. Andean–Amazon forests contained climate change refugia for more than half of the continental species’ pool and for up to 87 species locally (17 × 17 km² grid cell). The highlands of the southern Atlantic Forest also included megadiverse refugia for up to 76 species per cell. Almost half of the species that may find refugia in the Atlantic Forest will do so in a single region—the Serra do Mar and Serra do Espinhaço. Most of the refugia we identified, however, were not in PAs, which may contain <6% of the total area of climate change refugia, leaving 129–237 species with no refugia inside the territorial limits of PAs of any kind. Our results reveal a dismal scenario for the level of refugia protection in some of the most biodiverse regions of the world. Nonetheless, because refugia tend to be in high-elevation, topographically complex, and remote areas, with lower anthropogenic pressure, formally protecting them may require a comparatively modest investment.     

精神支持与物质支持对建筑工人不安全行为影响对比

为向建筑工人提供更具针对性的支持,对比分析精神支持和物质支持的影响效果,分别构建精神支持和物质支持对建筑工人不安全行为的影响机理,基于351名建筑工人调查数据,采用结构方程模型展开实证研究.研究结果表明:精神支持和物质支持对建筑工人安全意识的提高和工作压力的降低都具有显著影响;相较于物质支持,精神支持影响效果更好,更能...     

Streamflow Responses to Climate Change: Analysis of Hydrologic Indicators in a New York City Water Supply Watershed

Recent works have indicated that climate change in the northeastern United States is already being observed in the form of shorter winters, higher annual average air temperature, and more frequent extreme heat and precipitation events. These changes could have profound effects on aquatic ecosystems, and the implications of such changes are less understood. The objective of this study was to examine how future changes in precipitation and temperature translate into changes in streamflow using a physically based semidistributed model, and subsequently how changes in streamflow could potentially impact stream ecology. Streamflow parameters were examined in a New York City water supply watershed for changes from model‐simulated baseline conditions to future climate scenarios (2081‐2100) for ecologically relevant factors of streamflow using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations tool. Results indicate that earlier snowmelt and reduced snowpack advance the timing and increase the magnitude of discharge in the winter and early spring (November‐March) and greatly decrease monthly streamflow later in the spring in April. Both the rise and fall rates of the hydrograph will increase resulting in increased flashiness and flow reversals primarily due to increased pulses during winter seasons. These shifts in timing of peak flows, changes in seasonal flow regimes, and changes in the magnitudes of low flow can all influence aquatic organisms and have the potential to impact stream ecology.     

HYDROLOGIC IMPLICATIONS OF GREATER GROUND‐WATER RECHARGE TO LAS VEGAS VALLEY,NEVADA1

ABSTRACT: Published estimates of natural recharge in Las Vegas Valley range between 21,000 and 35,000 acre‐feet per year. This study examined the underlying assumptions of previous investigations and evaluated the altitude‐precipitation relationships. Period‐of‐record averages from high altitude precipitation gages established in the 1940s through the 1990s, were used to determine strong local altitude‐precipitation relationships that indicate new total precipitation and natural recharge amounts and a new spatial distribution of that recharge. This investigation calculated about 51,000 acre‐feet per year of natural recharge in the Las Vegas Hydrographic Basin, with an additional 6,000 acre‐feet per year from areas tributary to Las Vegas Valley, for a total of 57,000 acre‐feet per year. The total amount of natural recharge is greater than estimates from earlier investigations and is consistent with a companion study of natural discharge, which estimated 53,000 acre‐feet per year of outflow. The hydrologic implications of greater recharge in Las Vegas Valley infer a more accurate ground‐water budget and a better understanding of ground‐water recharge that will be represented in a ground‐water model. Thus model based ground‐water management scenarios will more realistically access impacts to the ground‐water system.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE HYDROLOGY AND PRODUCTIVITY OF A PINE PLANTATION1

ABSTRACT: There are increasing concerns in the forestry community about global climate change and variability associated with elevated atmospheric CO₂. Changes in precipitation and increases in air temperature could impose additional stress on forests during the next century. For a study site in Carteret County, North Carolina, the General Circulation Model, HADCM2, predicts that by the year 2099, maximum air temperature will increase 1.6 to 1.9°C, minimum temperature will increase 2.5 to 2.8°C, and precipitation will increase 0 to 10 percent compared to the mid‐1990s. These changes vary from season to season. We utilized a forest ecosystem process model, PnET‐II, for studying the potential effects of climate change on drainage outflow, evapotranspiration, leaf area index (LAI) and forest Net Primary Productivity (NPP). This model was first validated with long term drainage and LAI data collected at a 25‐ha mature loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) experimental watershed located in the North Carolina lower coastal plain. The site is flat with poorly drained soils and high groundwater table. Therefore, a high field capacity of 20 cm was used in the simulation to account for the topographic effects. This modeling study suggested that future climate change would cause a significant increase of drainage (6 percent) and forest productivity (2.5 percent). Future studies should consider the biological feedback (i.e., stomata conductance and water use efficiency) to air temperature change.