氯代烃的相对危险性分级

选用分子结构拓朴指数,物理化学性质参数和毒性毒理指数共11种作为危险性分级参数。采用模糊聚类相似系数法,Q型系统聚类相似系数法和欧氏距离倒数法,以及平面投影对应变换法进行最终综合评判分析。将24种氯代烃的大气环境事故中的相对危险性分为轻度、中度、高度和极度四个等级。     

广州市大气气溶胶散射吸湿增长因子的观测研究

利用环境湿度的日变化,对广州市大气气溶胶散射吸湿增长因子进行了观测研究.基于反向轨迹模型HYSPLIT,将2006年7月到达广州市区的气溶胶分为海洋型、海洋/城市混合型、城市型3个类型.整个观测期间,海洋型、海洋/城市混合型、城市型气溶胶的散射吸湿增长因子f(RH=80%)的平均值分别为2.68±0.59、2.29±0.28、2.04±0.28.经验公式f(RH)=1+a(RH/100)b能够较好地拟合3种类型的气溶胶散射吸湿增长因子,海洋型、海洋城市混合型、城市型气溶胶的散射吸湿增长因子的拟合经验参数a分别为4.92、3.26、2.06,经验参数b分别为5.04、3.85、3.60.     

Spectrally Driven Classification of High Spatial Resolution,Hyperspectral Imagery: A Tool for Mapping In-Stream Habitat

Streams represent an essential component of functional ecosystems and serve as sensitive indicators of disturbance. Accurate mapping and monitoring of these features is therefore critical, and this study explored the potential to characterize aquatic habitat with remotely sensed data. High spatial resolution, hyperspectral imagery of the Lamar River, Wyoming, USA, was used to examine the relationship between spectrally defined classes and field-mapped habitats. Advantages of this approach included enhanced depiction of fine-scale heterogeneity and improved portrayal of gradational zones between adjacent features. Certain habitat types delineated in the field were strongly associated with specific image classes, but most included areas of diverse spectral character; spatially buffering the field map polygons strengthened this association. Canonical discriminant analysis (CDA) indicated that the ratio of the variability among groups to that within a group was an order of magnitude greater for spectrally defined image classes (20.84) than for field-mapped habitat types (1.82), suggesting that unsupervised image classification might more effectively categorize the fluvial environment. CDA results also suggested that shortwave-infrared wavelengths were valuable for distinguishing various in-stream habitats. Although hyperspectral stream classification seemed capable of identifying more features than previously recognized, the technique also suggested that the intrinsic complexity of the Lamar River would preclude its subdivision into a discrete number of classes. Establishing physically based linkages between observed spectral patterns and ecologically relevant channel characteristics will require additional research, but hyperspectral stream classification could provide novel insight into fluvial systems while emerging as a potentially powerful tool for resource management.     

中国灾害学图书简索（一）

本文搜集整理了１９９０年以来国内出版的有关灾害研究方面的图书，并简要介绍了其主要内容。这对了解灾害学图书的出版状况，掌握灾害科研成果的最新动向将起到一定的作用。     

渤海海底表层软弱土特征及其对地震动的影响

以渤海PL19-3油田工程场地为研究对象,利用钻探和剪切波速实测资料,根据中国规范GB50011-2001、美国规范FEMA-NEHRP和欧洲规范EC8,进行场地类别研究;通过地震动效应分析,得到海底表层软弱土对峰值加速度和反应谱的影响。结果表明,现行规范中的场地土类型划分标准是针对陆地场地土特征的,不能反映覆盖较厚的海底淤泥层的特征;海底表层软弱土对地震动加速度的幅值和频谱的影响非常明显,其对峰值加速度的放大倍数较高,但受土的非线性变形影响,随着地震动输入的增大,其放大倍数呈非线性降低,软土场地使得加速度反应谱谱形变宽,特征周期变大。本文的结果为开展海洋工程抗震标准、海域地震区划研究积累了相关基础资料。     

Land classification used to select abandoned hazardous waste study sites

The biological effects of hazardous substances in the environment are influenced by climate, physiography, and biota. These factors interact to determine the transport and fate of chemicals, but are difficult to model accurately except for small areas with a large data base. The requirement for a large data base may be reduced locally if the regional influences of these factors were predetermined from existing data. Knowledge of the regional factors would also relax the restriction to considering only small areas. This paper advocates consideration of regional characteristics of the environment in the early stages of waste management strategy development. It presents as an example a procedure for selecting study sites from candidate-abandoned hazardous waste dumpsites in the southeastern United States. It uses small-scale maps of low resolution from the National Atlas to delineate the boundaries and to determine the environmental characteristics that prevail over units of land within the region. A computer map-overlay and graphic approach is used to facilitate the grouping of land types. Abandoned hazardous waste dumpsites found within land types that best represent the region are surveyed for selecting a study site. It is expected that environmental impact data obtained from a representative site would be useful for predicting impact potentials in similar remotely located areas within the same general region.     

高处坠落事故的人因失误与干预策略研究

为系统分析导致高处坠落人因事故的产生机理,通过统计152起建筑工程高处坠落事故的调查与分析报告,从组织影响、安全监管、不安全行为前提条件和不安全行为等4个层次,辨识影响高处坠落事故的人为失误因素,修订人为因素分析与分类系统框架（HFACS）。设计高处坠落人因失误调查问卷,开展一线高处作业人员问卷调查,建立高处坠落人因失误结构方程模型,对导致高处坠落事故的人为失误因素进行路径分析。结果表明:各潜在因素间均呈正相关,且高处坠落人因失误事故的关键路径为资源管理不到位→安全监督培训不充分→班组管理不良→操作违规。综合各因素间相关性,提出了针对性的预防高处坠落事故的人因干预策略。     

煤矿安全隐患动态分级闭环管理方法及应用

为了治理煤矿生产过程中的安全隐患,遏制煤矿安全生产事故,对煤矿生产过程中的安全隐患管理进行了研究。经过梳理国内外相关文献,辨析了煤矿危险源和安全隐患的关系;结合脆弱性分析了煤矿安全隐患的风险大小,结合LEC法说明了安全隐患风险分级标准;结合煤矿生产过程的特点,提出了煤矿安全隐患动态分级闭环管理方法,设计了与之配套的奖惩办法。煤矿安全隐患动态分级闭环管理方法和配套的奖惩办法在南方的一个千万吨级矿井进行了应用。研究表明,该方法可以有效提高煤矿安全隐患的治理能力,提高煤矿现场的安全管理水平。     

城市生活垃圾分类强制实施背景下“一主多元”治理模式的主体策略演化分析

随着经济不断发展和人民消费水平提升,垃圾分类治理问题日益严峻。实践经验表明,强制实施背景下政府主导与承包商、公众和环保组织为核心的多元主体共同参与的“一主多元”协作模式,对于我国垃圾分类治理具有较好适用性。但该模式也存在“一主”突出、“多元”不足及其他系统性冲突。为明确多元主体参与策略对“一主多元”治理模式稳定性的影响,首先,本文分析了城市生活垃圾分类强制实施背景下该模式运行机制及主体动因。然后,构建以承包商、公众和环保组织为主体的三方演化博弈系统,对不同策略组合下系统的演化结果进行演绎。最后,借助数值仿真分析了参与成本、环境收益和政府补贴对主体策略选择及系统稳定性的影响。结果表明：环保组织参与垃圾分类治理的积极性最高,公众最低;对于系统运行风险,承包商属于风险偏好者,环保组织属于风险回避者,公众属于风险中立者;承包商对参与成本最敏感,对政府补贴最不敏感,公众则正好与之相反;环境收益的提升有助于提高多元主体的参与积极性。这些发现对于如何提升多元主体参与垃圾分类治理的积极性及“一主多元”治理模式的运行效能具有启示意义。     

Water Resources Research Prioritization and Management-Problems and Perspectives1

ABSTRACT: At a time when productive water resources research is essential to protecting the quality of and wisely using our limited water resources, pervasive trends toward consumerism, fiscal restraint, centralized management, and using research for other social objectives threaten research productivity. The research prioritization and management structure that these trends have created was examined in the microcosm of its application at the Utah Water Research Laboratory. The result indicated that ephemeral prioritization and the failure of research users to target researchers to their own particular needs is diluting productivity. Incremental research prioritization and greater use of advisory councils in facilitating user-researcher interaction are suggested as corrective approaches, but the only firm conclusion at this point in time must be that empirical studies of the performance of alternatives in research management structure are solely needed.